Alan's Green Thoughts

What is the actual importance and effect of the personal vote of a candidate in a highly partisan political system? This is particularly relevant in the United Kingdom, whose Parliament uses first past the post only but where the constituencies are not particularly large by international standards. It of course depends on the candidate, but it matters more in some areas than others. In Britain, MPs with particularly strong personal votes in the London commuter belt are rare, for example, but in the few constituencies entirely or almost entirely composed of just one community (e.g. Cheltenham) personal votes and renown play a substantial part in the result. They have mostly mattered in bad times for particular political parties, such as that associated with Sir Charles Irving's swing against the Liberals in Cheltenham. Upon Sir Charles' retirement, there was an above average swing to the Liberal Democrats, who gained the seat, of 5.2%. The Conservative candidate selected to ...

Sunday's parliamentary election in Moldova finally brought about the collapse of its old communist party, still led by ageing ex-President Vladimir Voronin, which failed to win a single seat in the Moldovan Parliament. The new parallel voting system, electing 51 MPs in single member constituencies and 50 on a national list, imposed a 6% threshold for single parties and 9% for alliances, tougher than most electoral rules regarding alliances of parties in  Central and Eastern Europe. The Moldovan Communists, no longer truly a communist party, polled only 3.75% of the vote, considerably below this threshold and a far cry from the days where they governed Moldova alone. They have been supplanted by the more modern Moldovan Party of Socialists, who have proven adept at winning the crucial Russian minority vote and whose "old Labour" stance (social conservatism combined with socialist/social-democratic economics) has proven a boon in what is one of the poorest countries in Eu...

Readers, the results of yesterday's British local by-elections were as follows: Cardiff UA, Ely: Plaid Cymru 831 (43.1%, +17.6%), Labour 776 (40.4%, -8.4%), Conservative 271 (14.2%, -4.0%), Liberal Democrats 46 (2.4%, -2.9%). Plaid Cymru gain from Labour. Northamptonshire CC, Oundle: Conservative 1864 (51.3%, -14.3%), Liberal Democrats 1276 (35.1%, +24.6%), Labour 403 (11.1%, -12.9%), UKIP 89 (2.5%). The formation of The Independent Group earlier this week from 8 Labour MPs and 3 Conservative MPs (NB: Ian Austin, who resigned from the Labour Party earlier today, will not be joining that group), hit both Labour and the Conservatives hard, to the point where Plaid Cymru made a surprise gain of Ely ward, one of the few wards in Cardiff with any significant Welsh-speaking population. This gain was aided by neighbouring councillor Neil McAvoy, who is currently suspended from Plaid Cymru for misconduct; his suspension ends this September. Plaid Cymru has been faring better against ...

The breaking news of the seven Labour MPs who left the Labour Party earlier to form a new "Independent Group" should come as no surprise, given their voting records. The seven, with respective constituencies in brackets, are Luciana Berger (Liverpool Wavertree), Ann Coffey (Stockport), Mike Gapes (Ilford South), Chris Leslie (Nottingham East since 2010, Shipley 1997-2005), Gavin Shuker (Luton South), Angela Smith (Penistone & Stocksbridge), and Chuka Umunna (Streatham). All three of the seven who were in Parliament during the Blair years consistently voted for British involvement in the Iraq War in the sessions they attended, and five voted to support British air strikes in Syria in 2013. It is not really about the European issue-it is about reestablishment of Blairite, elitist, establishment wing. And ironically for such pro-Europeanism, the Mirror reported that their office is above a branch of Wetherspoons, a pub chain notable for its support of Brexit: https://www.m...

Readers, the results of the Rhoose by-election, the only British local by-election taking place on Valentine's Day, were as follows: Vale of Glamorgan UA, Rhoose: Conservative 1140 (61.5%, +19.0%), Labour 368 (19.9%,-3.2%), Independent 345 (18.6%). [Other Independents and Liberal Democrats did not stand] The former leader of the Conservatives in the Welsh Assembly, Andrew Robert Tudor (RT) Davies, was the successful Conservative candidate and his name recognition proved crucial in that by-election. Local renown is more important than party label in non-urban Wales and Rhoose is no exception. Given this factor the Independent's performance is commendable. Earlier today, children proved that just because they are not yet old enough to vote does not mean that politicians can ignore them by any means, especially since many children who went on climate strikes will be old enough to vote at the next general election or the one after next. They will be the ones feeling the effec...

It was reported that Hungary plans to encourage a baby boom to counter its population decline of 32,000 people per year: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47192612 Encouraging baby booms should not be done by any government, whether they be in the form of tax breaks, grants or other benefits specially for those having large families (4 children or more) as opposed to standard child benefits. Here is why: 1. Artificially encouraging population booms has adverse consequences. These come in the forms of such things as overconsumption, housing shortages, overcrowding, and excess unemployment, amongst other things. Plans should instead be made for slowing population growth or decline, because as of 2019 all EU member states, and Britain, have a fertility rate below the replacement rate of 2.1, which will for some time continue to decrease overall with the ageing populations we have. 2. How will those extra large families be catered for sustainably? State support for peo...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held this week were as follows: Bradford MBC, Bolton & Undercliffe: Liberal Democrats 1733 (51.3%, +9.0%),Labour 1153 (34.1%, -10.6%), Conservative 418 (12.4%, +2.4%), Green 73 (2.2%, -0.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2018.   Buckinghamshire CC, Totteridge & Bowdean: Labour* 978 (40.8%, +15.5%), East Wycombe Independent 668 (27.8%, -12.1%), Liberal Democrats 508 (21.2%, +6.4%), Conservative 245 (10.2%, -9.8%). Labour gain from East Wycombe Independent. Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Labour 1154 (44.7%, -19.0%), Liberal Democrats 845 (32.8%, +23.5%), Green 251 (9.7%, -1.1%), Conservative 247 (9.6%, -6.5%), WEP 46 (1.8%), UKIP 36 (1.4%). Tower Hamlets LBC, Lansbury: Labour 1308 (40.8%, -0.3%), Aspire 1002 (31.3%, +8.6%), Liberal Democrats 290 (9.0%, +0.4%),UKIP 176 (5.5%), Conservative 175 (5.5%, -1.8%), Green 166 (5.2%, -2.3%), House Party 89 (2.8%). [People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets and ...

Readers, the result of the Warlingham by-election, the sole British local by-election this week and the first in 3 weeks, were as follows: Surrey CC, Warlingham: Conservative 1199 (48.1%, -8.1%), Liberal Democrats 990 (39.7%, +10.8%), UKIP 176 (7.1%, -2.9%), Labour 126 (5.1%, +0.3%). Surrey as a county has seen some shift to the Liberal Democrats in recent years as a result of Brexit chaos, especially from its comfortable commuter population who fear for their long term prospects post-Brexit. However, the wealthier parts of the division, containing million pound houses often owned by retirees with gold-plated pensions (e.g. former company directors), blunted the swing to just 9.4%, guaranteeing an easy Conservative hold in this safest of Conservative county council divisions. Earlier this week, on Tuesday, Parliament debated several crucial amendments to the Brexit bill regarding the backstop, even though the EU has made it clear no renegotiation of the initial deal is p...