My analysis of British local by-elections of 12/7/18
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 12 July 2018 were as follows:
Barnsley MBC, Old Town: Labour 548 (44.2%, -5.9%), Democrats & Veterans Party 338 (27.3%), Conservative 157 (12.7%, -1.8%), Liberal Democrats 124 (10.0%), Yorkshire Party 47 (3.8%), BNP 25 (2.0%). [Barnsley Independent Group did not stand]
Darlington UA,Cockerton: Labour 555 (51.0%,+7.9%), Conservative 239 (22.0%, -2.8%), Liberal Democrats 104 (9.6%, -5.5%), Independent 93 (8.5%), For Britain 63 (5.8%), Green 34 (3.1%, -14.0%).
East Dorset DC, Verwood East: Conservative 706 (75.1%), Labour 234 (24.9%)
Elmbridge BC, Oxshott & Stoke d'Abernon: Conservative 1297 (72.0%, -4.7%), Liberal Democrats 463 (25.7%, +9.7%), UKIP 42 (2.3%, +0.1%). [Labour did not stand]
Hartlepool UA, Rural West: Conservative 678 (45.4%, -5.2%), Independent 546 (36.5%), Labour 184 (12.3%, -0.2%), Green 87 (5.8%,-5.6%). [UKIP did not stand]
Lewes DC, Chailey & Wivelsfield: Conservative 563 (53.6%, +4.8%), Liberal Democrats 324 (30.8%, +5.0%) Labour 104 (9.9%), Green 60 (5.7%, -6.3%). [UKIP did not stand]
Norfolk CC, Yare & All Saints: Conservative 955 (66.2%, -6.6%), Labour 337 (22.4%,+10.1%), Liberal Democrats 182 (11.4%, -3.5%).
Rutland UA, Oakham South West: Independent 178* (29.8%), Liberal Democrats 177 (29.6%), Conservative 163 (27.3%, -5.7%), Labour 80 (13.4%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Other Independents did not stand]
*The Independent and Liberal Democrat candidates were in fact tied on 177 votes. The returning officer drew lots which ended up in the Independent candidate's favour.
Waveney BC, Pakefield: Conservative 643 (43.8%,+11.9%) Labour 600 (40.9%, -5.2%), UKIP 116 (7.9%) Green 64 (4.4%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 44 (3.0%, -6.3%). Conservative gain from Labour.
Waveney BC, Southwold: Liberal Democrats 1005 (71.8%), Conservative 307 (21.8%, -28.4%), Labour 78 (5.5%, -14.7%), UKIP 18 (1.3%, -13.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand].
This week's 10 by-elections came from all over the country and provided fascinating results. The majority of them were in council areas which held full council elections in 2015, on the same day as the 2015 general election.
This particular fact would normally work against the Conservatives, but in Lewes and Waveney the opposite proved to be the case. In Chailey & Wivelsfield, a ward comprising several affluent villages in East Sussex, UKIP's lack of a candidate helped the Conservatives to stem any pro-Liberal Democrat swing that would normally appear in local by-elections in Lewes. A Labour intervention hindered both the Liberal Democrat vote and to a lesser extent the Green vote.
If you read my election analyses regularly, you will notice how far Labour has slipped back considerably in Waveney, focused on the fishing port of Lowestoft, since 2015 when former Labour MP Bob Blizzard tried and failed to regain his seat. No squeeze Labour could exert on the Liberal Democrat and Green votes could prevent a Conservative gain of Pakefield ward, which has otherwise been a reliable Labour ward apart from a solitary Conservative gain in 2004. For a ward that has regularly voted Labour it has very Conservative-friendly demographics at present-a high proportion of owner-occupiers, a high proportion of people with no qualifications, and it has a large proportion of retired and older residents (27% of its population are retired and ~32% of this ward's population are over the age of 65).
The Conservatives crashed heavily in nearby Southwold, however, when the Liberal Democrats, who gained the ward from a standing start on a turnout of as high as 49.2%, capitalised on an issue of empty holiday homes in the area which are being left empty for speculative purposes just like thousands of empty homes in Greater London. This has driven up house prices in Southwold to be on a par with many London boroughs, in a village where the average wage is less than £20,000 per year. The result is also is partly a reaction to the fact Waveney council will disappear next year when it merges with Suffolk Coastal council to become East Suffolk District Council. Both Waveney and Suffolk Coastal councils are firmly in Conservative control and rural areas of Waveney (i.e. those not in Lowestoft) will be hit badly by the merger due to Lowestoft having to share services with Felixstowe down the coast.
The Democrats & Veterans' second place in Barnsley has a good explanation if it seems surprising at first. Their candidate, Gavin Felton, was a former Sergeant Major in the British Army and was well known for charity work, factors which both go down very well in Barnsley as in particular Barnsley Central's Labour MP, Dan Jarvis, knows well being a former military officer himself. The Labour candidate did not have such a notable background and therefore lost support, but not enough to lose the safely Labour ward especially with the Yorkshire Party's Tony Devoy failing to make an impact despite South Yorkshire having relatively decent levels of support for the Yorkshire Party. The other UKIP splinter group, the more extreme For Britain Movement, received a cold reception in Darlington but still managed to beat the Green Party, whose vote share dropped by more than 80% of its 2015 vote share.
The more rural the ward or division, the more your personal vote matters, whichever political colours you stand under. This was aptly demonstrated in Hartlepool Rural West where despite the Conservatives holding the seat, the Independent candidate edged closer to winning the seat than earlier this year, and in Oakham South West, Rutland which retains a strong Independent tradition and regularly elects Independent candidates. Rutland is staunchly Conservative as a county-the smallest in Britain by far- but always elects at least a few Independent candidates, mainly in Oakham.
Barnsley MBC, Old Town: Labour 548 (44.2%, -5.9%), Democrats & Veterans Party 338 (27.3%), Conservative 157 (12.7%, -1.8%), Liberal Democrats 124 (10.0%), Yorkshire Party 47 (3.8%), BNP 25 (2.0%). [Barnsley Independent Group did not stand]
Darlington UA,Cockerton: Labour 555 (51.0%,+7.9%), Conservative 239 (22.0%, -2.8%), Liberal Democrats 104 (9.6%, -5.5%), Independent 93 (8.5%), For Britain 63 (5.8%), Green 34 (3.1%, -14.0%).
East Dorset DC, Verwood East: Conservative 706 (75.1%), Labour 234 (24.9%)
Elmbridge BC, Oxshott & Stoke d'Abernon: Conservative 1297 (72.0%, -4.7%), Liberal Democrats 463 (25.7%, +9.7%), UKIP 42 (2.3%, +0.1%). [Labour did not stand]
Hartlepool UA, Rural West: Conservative 678 (45.4%, -5.2%), Independent 546 (36.5%), Labour 184 (12.3%, -0.2%), Green 87 (5.8%,-5.6%). [UKIP did not stand]
Lewes DC, Chailey & Wivelsfield: Conservative 563 (53.6%, +4.8%), Liberal Democrats 324 (30.8%, +5.0%) Labour 104 (9.9%), Green 60 (5.7%, -6.3%). [UKIP did not stand]
Norfolk CC, Yare & All Saints: Conservative 955 (66.2%, -6.6%), Labour 337 (22.4%,+10.1%), Liberal Democrats 182 (11.4%, -3.5%).
Rutland UA, Oakham South West: Independent 178* (29.8%), Liberal Democrats 177 (29.6%), Conservative 163 (27.3%, -5.7%), Labour 80 (13.4%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Other Independents did not stand]
*The Independent and Liberal Democrat candidates were in fact tied on 177 votes. The returning officer drew lots which ended up in the Independent candidate's favour.
Waveney BC, Pakefield: Conservative 643 (43.8%,+11.9%) Labour 600 (40.9%, -5.2%), UKIP 116 (7.9%) Green 64 (4.4%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 44 (3.0%, -6.3%). Conservative gain from Labour.
Waveney BC, Southwold: Liberal Democrats 1005 (71.8%), Conservative 307 (21.8%, -28.4%), Labour 78 (5.5%, -14.7%), UKIP 18 (1.3%, -13.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand].
This week's 10 by-elections came from all over the country and provided fascinating results. The majority of them were in council areas which held full council elections in 2015, on the same day as the 2015 general election.
This particular fact would normally work against the Conservatives, but in Lewes and Waveney the opposite proved to be the case. In Chailey & Wivelsfield, a ward comprising several affluent villages in East Sussex, UKIP's lack of a candidate helped the Conservatives to stem any pro-Liberal Democrat swing that would normally appear in local by-elections in Lewes. A Labour intervention hindered both the Liberal Democrat vote and to a lesser extent the Green vote.
If you read my election analyses regularly, you will notice how far Labour has slipped back considerably in Waveney, focused on the fishing port of Lowestoft, since 2015 when former Labour MP Bob Blizzard tried and failed to regain his seat. No squeeze Labour could exert on the Liberal Democrat and Green votes could prevent a Conservative gain of Pakefield ward, which has otherwise been a reliable Labour ward apart from a solitary Conservative gain in 2004. For a ward that has regularly voted Labour it has very Conservative-friendly demographics at present-a high proportion of owner-occupiers, a high proportion of people with no qualifications, and it has a large proportion of retired and older residents (27% of its population are retired and ~32% of this ward's population are over the age of 65).
The Conservatives crashed heavily in nearby Southwold, however, when the Liberal Democrats, who gained the ward from a standing start on a turnout of as high as 49.2%, capitalised on an issue of empty holiday homes in the area which are being left empty for speculative purposes just like thousands of empty homes in Greater London. This has driven up house prices in Southwold to be on a par with many London boroughs, in a village where the average wage is less than £20,000 per year. The result is also is partly a reaction to the fact Waveney council will disappear next year when it merges with Suffolk Coastal council to become East Suffolk District Council. Both Waveney and Suffolk Coastal councils are firmly in Conservative control and rural areas of Waveney (i.e. those not in Lowestoft) will be hit badly by the merger due to Lowestoft having to share services with Felixstowe down the coast.
The Democrats & Veterans' second place in Barnsley has a good explanation if it seems surprising at first. Their candidate, Gavin Felton, was a former Sergeant Major in the British Army and was well known for charity work, factors which both go down very well in Barnsley as in particular Barnsley Central's Labour MP, Dan Jarvis, knows well being a former military officer himself. The Labour candidate did not have such a notable background and therefore lost support, but not enough to lose the safely Labour ward especially with the Yorkshire Party's Tony Devoy failing to make an impact despite South Yorkshire having relatively decent levels of support for the Yorkshire Party. The other UKIP splinter group, the more extreme For Britain Movement, received a cold reception in Darlington but still managed to beat the Green Party, whose vote share dropped by more than 80% of its 2015 vote share.
The more rural the ward or division, the more your personal vote matters, whichever political colours you stand under. This was aptly demonstrated in Hartlepool Rural West where despite the Conservatives holding the seat, the Independent candidate edged closer to winning the seat than earlier this year, and in Oakham South West, Rutland which retains a strong Independent tradition and regularly elects Independent candidates. Rutland is staunchly Conservative as a county-the smallest in Britain by far- but always elects at least a few Independent candidates, mainly in Oakham.
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