My analysis of British local by-elections from 5/7/18
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 5th July 2018 were as follows:
Bath and North East Somerset UA, Kingsmead: Liberal Democrats 545 (41.1%, +12.7%) Labour 326 (24.6%, +10.2%), Conservative 282 (21.3%, -6.4%), Green 172 (13.0%, -10.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Lichfield DC, Curborough: Labour 309 (60.4%, +27.6%), Conservative 169 (33.0%, -8.6%), Liberal Democrats 34 (6.6%). Labour gain from Conservative.
Shropshire UA, Cosford & Shifnal South: Conservative 362 (38.3%, -18.9%), Independent (Mitchell, ex-UKIP) 210 (22.2%, -9.3%), Independent (Carey, ex-Labour) 207 (21.9%), Liberal Democrats 167 (17.7%, +6.3%).
It must be said that the Conservatives were very lucky to win a seat in Kingsmead ward at the last local elections in Bath and North East Somerset; Kingsmead is a mixed ward which normally votes Liberal Democrat even if not by substantial margins, often due to split opposition. In 2015, the Conservatives had two decisive factors in their favour: a general election in which they were winning and a Liberal Democrat collapse locally and nationally. The spa city of Bath (Bath is the only spa town with a cathedral granting it city status) is one of the most pro-European and progressive areas in England outside London and the Bath constituency featured one of the largest Lib Dem vote increases in the 2017 general election (+17.5%). This was repeated in this by-election, as was the sharp decrease in the Green vote. The Green Party came relatively close to winning a seat in Kingsmead in 2015 but the recovery of the Liberal Democrats resulted in a substantial squeeze of the Green vote, and was also responsible for the Conservatives being pushed into third place behind Labour. Bath and North East Somerset will experience ward boundary changes for next year, and the city of Bath is set to have several marginal wards disappear or be substantially withdrawn, which is particularly concerning for the Green Party who won over 20% of the local votes in the city of Bath and came close to winning many wards in 2015, but won only 2 council seats (one of which was narrowly lost in a by-election last year).
Labour's substantial win in Curborough can be placed down to the recent decision by solidly Conservative-controlled Lichfield council's decision to axe the upcoming Friarsgate development on the outskirts of the city, which would have provided hundreds of new retail jobs in Lichfield had it been able to acquire council funding in the absence of a private backer. Labour's opposition to the decision helped it achieve an 18.1% swing against the Conservatives, who were harmed further by a Liberal Democrat intervention even if the Liberal Democrats polled just 34 votes in that by-election. For a cathedral city, Lichfield's Liberal Democrat vote is relatively weak, although its core Liberal Democrat vote is the strongest in Staffordshire nonetheless, as is its Green vote (it recorded the highest Green vote share in Staffordshire in both the 2015 and 2017 general elections).
Meanwhile, in Cosford and Shifnal South in Shropshire, the only one of the three seats the Conservatives were defending that Thursday in which they succeeded in holding the seat, an Independent candidate who had previously been a Labour candidate was undoubtedly responsible for much of the sharp fall in the Conservative vote in the same way the Liberal Democrats' minor recovery was, the drop in the ex-UKIP candidate's vote not withstanding.
Bath and North East Somerset UA, Kingsmead: Liberal Democrats 545 (41.1%, +12.7%) Labour 326 (24.6%, +10.2%), Conservative 282 (21.3%, -6.4%), Green 172 (13.0%, -10.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Lichfield DC, Curborough: Labour 309 (60.4%, +27.6%), Conservative 169 (33.0%, -8.6%), Liberal Democrats 34 (6.6%). Labour gain from Conservative.
Shropshire UA, Cosford & Shifnal South: Conservative 362 (38.3%, -18.9%), Independent (Mitchell, ex-UKIP) 210 (22.2%, -9.3%), Independent (Carey, ex-Labour) 207 (21.9%), Liberal Democrats 167 (17.7%, +6.3%).
It must be said that the Conservatives were very lucky to win a seat in Kingsmead ward at the last local elections in Bath and North East Somerset; Kingsmead is a mixed ward which normally votes Liberal Democrat even if not by substantial margins, often due to split opposition. In 2015, the Conservatives had two decisive factors in their favour: a general election in which they were winning and a Liberal Democrat collapse locally and nationally. The spa city of Bath (Bath is the only spa town with a cathedral granting it city status) is one of the most pro-European and progressive areas in England outside London and the Bath constituency featured one of the largest Lib Dem vote increases in the 2017 general election (+17.5%). This was repeated in this by-election, as was the sharp decrease in the Green vote. The Green Party came relatively close to winning a seat in Kingsmead in 2015 but the recovery of the Liberal Democrats resulted in a substantial squeeze of the Green vote, and was also responsible for the Conservatives being pushed into third place behind Labour. Bath and North East Somerset will experience ward boundary changes for next year, and the city of Bath is set to have several marginal wards disappear or be substantially withdrawn, which is particularly concerning for the Green Party who won over 20% of the local votes in the city of Bath and came close to winning many wards in 2015, but won only 2 council seats (one of which was narrowly lost in a by-election last year).
Labour's substantial win in Curborough can be placed down to the recent decision by solidly Conservative-controlled Lichfield council's decision to axe the upcoming Friarsgate development on the outskirts of the city, which would have provided hundreds of new retail jobs in Lichfield had it been able to acquire council funding in the absence of a private backer. Labour's opposition to the decision helped it achieve an 18.1% swing against the Conservatives, who were harmed further by a Liberal Democrat intervention even if the Liberal Democrats polled just 34 votes in that by-election. For a cathedral city, Lichfield's Liberal Democrat vote is relatively weak, although its core Liberal Democrat vote is the strongest in Staffordshire nonetheless, as is its Green vote (it recorded the highest Green vote share in Staffordshire in both the 2015 and 2017 general elections).
Meanwhile, in Cosford and Shifnal South in Shropshire, the only one of the three seats the Conservatives were defending that Thursday in which they succeeded in holding the seat, an Independent candidate who had previously been a Labour candidate was undoubtedly responsible for much of the sharp fall in the Conservative vote in the same way the Liberal Democrats' minor recovery was, the drop in the ex-UKIP candidate's vote not withstanding.
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