General election predictions: Will those PPCs succeed their retiring predecessors?
As the 2015 UK general election draws nearer, many sitting MPs are planning to stand down. At this time of writing, 81 MPs (34 Conservative, 35 Labour, 10 Liberal Democrat, 1 Plaid Cymru, and 1 ex-Labour) have announced their intention to stand down from their seats at the next general election (the most recent being Sir Hugh Robertson, Conservative MP for Faversham & Mid Kent since 2001).
For the Liberal Democrats, incumbency is a particularly important factor in whether they can hold a particular seat at the next general election or not. Here is my belief of whether new candidates (by political party) are likely to succeed retiring predecessors: (note that a blank space in the PPC selected to replace them column means that the incumbent's party has not chosen a new PPC yet at this time)
Very likely/almost certain to succeed:
Seat: Held by*: Retiring MP: PPC^ selected to replace them:
Aberavon Labour Hywel Francis Stephen Kinnock
Aldridge-Brownhills Conservative Richard Shepherd
Ashton-under-Lyne Labour David Heyes Angela Rayner
Banbury Conservative Tony Baldry Victoria Prentis
Bath Lib Dem Don Foster Steve Bradley
Batley & Spen Labour Mike Wood Jo Cox
Bexhill & Battle Conservative Greg Barker
Blackburn Labour Jack Straw Kate Hollem
Bootle Labour Joe Benton Peter Dowd
Braintree Conservative Brooks Newmark James Cleverly
Bradford South Labour Gerry Sutcliffe Judith Cummings
Bristol South Labour Dawn Primarolo Karin Smyth
Bury St Edmunds Conservative David Ruffley Johanna Churchill
Charnwood Conservative Stephen Dorrell
Coventry NE Labour Bob Ainsworth Colleen Fletcher
Croydon South Conservative Richard Ottaway Chris Philp
Dulwich & W.Norwood Labour Tessa Jowell Helen Hayes
Dwyfor Meirionydd Plaid Cymru Elfyn Llwyd Liz Saville-Roberts
Ellesmere Port & Neston Labour Andrew Miller Justin Madder
Gower Labour Martin Caton Liz Evans
Greenwich & Woolwich Labour Nick Raynsford Matthew Pennycock
Havant Conservative David Willetts Alan Mak
Hertsmere Conservative James Clappison Oliver Dowden
Holborn & St Pancras Labour Frank Dobson Keir Starmer
Leeds East Labour George Mudie Richard Burgon
Lewisham Deptford Labour Joan Ruddock Vicky Foxcroft
Louth & Horncastle Conservative Peter Tapsell Victoria Atkins
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Labour Dai Havard Gerald Jones
Mid Worcestershire Conservative Peter Luff Nigel Huddleston
Neath Labour Peter Hain Christina Rees
North Dorset Conservative Robert Walter
NE Hampshire Conservative James Arbuthnot Ranil Jayawardena
NW Hampshire Conservative George Young Kit Malthouse
Richmond (Yorks) Conservative William Hague Rishi Sunak
Salford & Eccles Labour Hazel Blears Rebecca Long-Bailey
Sheffield Brightside
& Hillsborough Labour David Blunkett Harry Harpham
Sheffield Heeley Labour Meg Munn Louise Hugh
St Helens South
& Whiston Labour Shaun Woodward Marie Rimmer
Stoke-on-Trent North Labour Joan Walley Ruth Smeeth
South Cambridgeshire Conservative Andrew Lansley Heidi Allen
SE Cambridgeshire Conservative Jim Paice Lucy Frazer
South Leicestershire Conservative Andrew Robathan Alberto Costa
South Suffolk Conservative Tim Yeo James Cartlidge
Swansea East Labour Sian James Carolyn Harris
Tonbridge & Malling Conservative John Stanley Tom Tugendhat
Uxbridge & Ruislip S. Conservative John Randall Boris Johnson
Wealden Conservative Charles Hendry Nusrat Ghani
Workington Labour Tony Cunningham
York Central Labour Hugh Bayley
Some chance, but success is by no means assured:
Seat: Held by: Retiring MP: PPC selected to replace them:
Boston & Skegness Conservative Mark Simmonds Matt Warman
Dudley South Conservative Chris Kelly
Edinburgh SW Labour Alistair Darling
Glenrothes Labour Lindsay Roy Melanie Ward
Great Grimsby Labour Austin Mitchell Melanie Onn
Hampstead & Kilburn Labour Glenda Jackson Tulip Siddiq
Hazel Grove Lib Dem Andrew Stunnell Lisa Smart
North East Fife Lib Dem Menzies Campbell Tim Brett
Northampton South Conservative Brian Binley David Mackintosh
Southampton Itchen Labour John Denham Rowenna Davis
South Ribble Conservative Lorraine Fulbrook Seema Kennedy
Unlikely to pull it off/no realistic chance:
Seat: Held by: Retiring MP: PPC selected to replace them:
Aberdeen North Labour Frank Doran Richard Baker
Berwick-upon-Tweed Lib Dem Alan Beith Julie Porksen
Brent Central Lib Dem Sarah Teather Ibrahim Taguri
Cannock Chase Conservative Aidan Burley Amanda Miling
Cardiff North Conservative Jonathan Evans Craig Williams
Erewash Conservative Jessica Lee Maggie Throup
Falkirk Labour Eric Joyce Karen Whitefield
Gordon Lib Dem Malcolm Bruce Christine Jardine
Hove Conservative Mike Weatherley Graham Cox
Mid Dorset & N. Poole Lib Dem Annette Brooke Vikki Slade
North Warwickshire Conservative Dan Byles Craig Tracey
Redcar Lib Dem Ian Swale Josh Mason
Stirling Labour Anne McGuire Johanna Boyd
Somerton & Frome Lib Dem David Heath David Rendel
South Thanet Conservative Laura Sandys Craig Mackinlay
Taunton Deane Lib Dem Jeremy Browne Rachel Gilmour
*Currently held by (respective party)
^PPC of same political party as retiring incumbent.
**Deselections are not shown here, except for that of Tim Yeo who already announced that he is not planning to contest South Suffolk as an Independent.
In the midst of all this, more and more different parties are planning to field candidates (there are also some independent candidates planning to come forward, of course)-one constituency, Truro and Falmouth, already has eight different prospective candidates lined up (many constituencies also have at least six different prospective candidates lined up), when we are still three months away from the start of the official campaign. Meanwhile, with the Green surge continuing, I hope that in as many constituencies of England and Wales as possible (not just 75% of them), there will be a Green Party PPC.
Alan.
For the Liberal Democrats, incumbency is a particularly important factor in whether they can hold a particular seat at the next general election or not. Here is my belief of whether new candidates (by political party) are likely to succeed retiring predecessors: (note that a blank space in the PPC selected to replace them column means that the incumbent's party has not chosen a new PPC yet at this time)
Very likely/almost certain to succeed:
Seat: Held by*: Retiring MP: PPC^ selected to replace them:
Aberavon Labour Hywel Francis Stephen Kinnock
Aldridge-Brownhills Conservative Richard Shepherd
Ashton-under-Lyne Labour David Heyes Angela Rayner
Banbury Conservative Tony Baldry Victoria Prentis
Bath Lib Dem Don Foster Steve Bradley
Batley & Spen Labour Mike Wood Jo Cox
Bexhill & Battle Conservative Greg Barker
Blackburn Labour Jack Straw Kate Hollem
Bootle Labour Joe Benton Peter Dowd
Braintree Conservative Brooks Newmark James Cleverly
Bradford South Labour Gerry Sutcliffe Judith Cummings
Bristol South Labour Dawn Primarolo Karin Smyth
Bury St Edmunds Conservative David Ruffley Johanna Churchill
Charnwood Conservative Stephen Dorrell
Coventry NE Labour Bob Ainsworth Colleen Fletcher
Croydon South Conservative Richard Ottaway Chris Philp
Dulwich & W.Norwood Labour Tessa Jowell Helen Hayes
Dwyfor Meirionydd Plaid Cymru Elfyn Llwyd Liz Saville-Roberts
Ellesmere Port & Neston Labour Andrew Miller Justin Madder
Gower Labour Martin Caton Liz Evans
Greenwich & Woolwich Labour Nick Raynsford Matthew Pennycock
Havant Conservative David Willetts Alan Mak
Hertsmere Conservative James Clappison Oliver Dowden
Holborn & St Pancras Labour Frank Dobson Keir Starmer
Leeds East Labour George Mudie Richard Burgon
Lewisham Deptford Labour Joan Ruddock Vicky Foxcroft
Louth & Horncastle Conservative Peter Tapsell Victoria Atkins
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney Labour Dai Havard Gerald Jones
Mid Worcestershire Conservative Peter Luff Nigel Huddleston
Neath Labour Peter Hain Christina Rees
North Dorset Conservative Robert Walter
NE Hampshire Conservative James Arbuthnot Ranil Jayawardena
NW Hampshire Conservative George Young Kit Malthouse
Richmond (Yorks) Conservative William Hague Rishi Sunak
Salford & Eccles Labour Hazel Blears Rebecca Long-Bailey
Sheffield Brightside
& Hillsborough Labour David Blunkett Harry Harpham
Sheffield Heeley Labour Meg Munn Louise Hugh
St Helens South
& Whiston Labour Shaun Woodward Marie Rimmer
Stoke-on-Trent North Labour Joan Walley Ruth Smeeth
South Cambridgeshire Conservative Andrew Lansley Heidi Allen
SE Cambridgeshire Conservative Jim Paice Lucy Frazer
South Leicestershire Conservative Andrew Robathan Alberto Costa
South Suffolk Conservative Tim Yeo James Cartlidge
Swansea East Labour Sian James Carolyn Harris
Tonbridge & Malling Conservative John Stanley Tom Tugendhat
Uxbridge & Ruislip S. Conservative John Randall Boris Johnson
Wealden Conservative Charles Hendry Nusrat Ghani
Workington Labour Tony Cunningham
York Central Labour Hugh Bayley
Some chance, but success is by no means assured:
Seat: Held by: Retiring MP: PPC selected to replace them:
Boston & Skegness Conservative Mark Simmonds Matt Warman
Dudley South Conservative Chris Kelly
Edinburgh SW Labour Alistair Darling
Glenrothes Labour Lindsay Roy Melanie Ward
Great Grimsby Labour Austin Mitchell Melanie Onn
Hampstead & Kilburn Labour Glenda Jackson Tulip Siddiq
Hazel Grove Lib Dem Andrew Stunnell Lisa Smart
North East Fife Lib Dem Menzies Campbell Tim Brett
Northampton South Conservative Brian Binley David Mackintosh
Southampton Itchen Labour John Denham Rowenna Davis
South Ribble Conservative Lorraine Fulbrook Seema Kennedy
Unlikely to pull it off/no realistic chance:
Seat: Held by: Retiring MP: PPC selected to replace them:
Aberdeen North Labour Frank Doran Richard Baker
Berwick-upon-Tweed Lib Dem Alan Beith Julie Porksen
Brent Central Lib Dem Sarah Teather Ibrahim Taguri
Cannock Chase Conservative Aidan Burley Amanda Miling
Cardiff North Conservative Jonathan Evans Craig Williams
Erewash Conservative Jessica Lee Maggie Throup
Falkirk Labour Eric Joyce Karen Whitefield
Gordon Lib Dem Malcolm Bruce Christine Jardine
Hove Conservative Mike Weatherley Graham Cox
Mid Dorset & N. Poole Lib Dem Annette Brooke Vikki Slade
North Warwickshire Conservative Dan Byles Craig Tracey
Redcar Lib Dem Ian Swale Josh Mason
Stirling Labour Anne McGuire Johanna Boyd
Somerton & Frome Lib Dem David Heath David Rendel
South Thanet Conservative Laura Sandys Craig Mackinlay
Taunton Deane Lib Dem Jeremy Browne Rachel Gilmour
*Currently held by (respective party)
^PPC of same political party as retiring incumbent.
**Deselections are not shown here, except for that of Tim Yeo who already announced that he is not planning to contest South Suffolk as an Independent.
In the midst of all this, more and more different parties are planning to field candidates (there are also some independent candidates planning to come forward, of course)-one constituency, Truro and Falmouth, already has eight different prospective candidates lined up (many constituencies also have at least six different prospective candidates lined up), when we are still three months away from the start of the official campaign. Meanwhile, with the Green surge continuing, I hope that in as many constituencies of England and Wales as possible (not just 75% of them), there will be a Green Party PPC.
Alan.
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