British general election 2024-predictions

 With nominations for the British general election 2024 having closed yesterday and with statements of persons nominated having been released, this election has already set a record for highest number of candidates-over 4,500 across the UK, beating the previous record of 4,150 set in 2010. The number of MPs retiring at this election did not however quite match the 2010 record despite major constituency boundary changes, with 132 retiring at this election including Mick Whitley and Beth Winter, who failed to find new seats after losing selections in merged seats and Sam Tarry, who was deselected in Ilford South and failed to find another seat, compared to 149 in 2010.

In the vast majority of seats, all five major British political parties-the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Reform UK-are contesting, the Speaker's seat of Chorley notwithstanding, with the Workers' Party and (continuity) Social Democratic Party the only other political parties contesting enough seats to qualify for a UK-wide Party Political Broadcast 

On current polling, the Conservatives are set to hold as few as 100 seats and possibly even less than that, with Labour set to win at least 400 seats and the Liberal Democrats at least 50 taking tactical voting into account and the effects of Reform UK's splitting of the Conservative vote. The Green Party is set to achieve a record vote share as well, due to fielding close to a full slate of candidates across the UK, including the Scottish Green Party. For the first time since 1945, Independent candidates who were not recently affiliated to a political party and who are not backed by a political party stand a chance of winning a seat.

So of the seats with a realistic chance of changing hands this election, which ones do I predict will actually do so, and where to (taking notional results into account)?

Labour gain from Conservative (158, 159 counting Hartlepool which was lost in a 2021 by-election)

Aldershot, Altrincham & Sale West, Amber Valley, Ashford, Bangor Aberconwy, Banbury, Barrow & Furness, Basingstoke, Bassetlaw, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Birmingham Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool North & Fleetwood, Blackpool South, Bletchley & Buckingham, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Bolton West, Bournemouth East, Bournemouth West, Bracknell, Bridgend, Bromley & Biggin Hill, Broxtowe, Burnley, Bury North, Bury South, Burton & Uttoxeter, Calder Valley, Camborne & Redruth, Carlisle, Chatham & Aylesford, Chelsea & Fulham, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Cities of London & Westminster, Clwyd East, Clwyd North, Colchester, Colne Valley, Corby & East Northamptonshire, Crawley, Crewe & Nantwich, Croydon South, Darlington, Dartford, Derby North, Doncaster East & the Isle of Axholme (notional), Dover & Deal, Dudley, Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard, Earley & Woodley (notional-new seat), East Thanet, Eltham & Chislehurst (notional), Erewash, Exmouth & Exeter East, Filton & Bradley Stoke, Finchley & Golders Green, Folkestone & Hythe, Forest of Dean, Gedling, Gillingham & Rainham, Gloucester, Gravesham, Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, Great Yarmouth, Halesowen, Hartlepool (by-election recovery), Harlow, Hastings & Rye, Hemel Hempstead, Hendon, Hexham, High Peak, Hitchin, Hull West & Haltemprice (notional), Hyndburn, Ipswich, Keighley & Ilkley, Kettering, Lancaster & Wyre (notional), Leeds North West (new version; the old Leeds North West is succeeded by Leeds Central & Headingley), Leeds South West & Morley, Leigh & Atherton, Lincoln, Loughborough, Lowestoft, Macclesfield, Mansfield, Mid Cheshire (notional-new seat), Mid & South Pembrokeshire, Milton Keynes Central, Milton Keynes North, Monmouthshire, Morecambe & Lunesdale, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor, Northampton North, Northampton South, North East Derbyshire, North East Somerset & Hanham, Norwich North, North Somerset, North Warwickshire & Bedworth, Nuneaton, Ossett & Denby Dale, Pendle & Clitheroe, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Peterborough, Plymouth Moor View, Redcar, Rochester & Strood, Rossendale & Darwen, Rother Valley, Rugby, Rushcliffe, St Austell & Newquay, Scarborough & Whitby, Scunthorpe, Sherwood Forest, Shipley, Shrewsbury, South Dorset, Spen Valley (notional-new seat), Stevenage, Stockton West, South Ribble, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent South, Stourbridge, Stroud, Southampton Itchen, Southend East & Rochford, Southend West & Leigh, Swindon North, Swindon South, Tamworth, Telford, The Wrekin, Thurrock, Tipton & Wednesbury, Truro & Falmouth, Vale of Glamorgan, Wakefield & Rothwell, Walsall & Bloxwich, Watford, Wellingborough & Rushden (counting this seat as the successor to Wellingborough which Labour gained in a by-election), Welwyn Hatfield, West Bromwich, Weston-super-Mare, Whitehaven & Workington, Wolverhampton North East, Wolverhampton South West, Worcester, Worthing East & Shoreham, Worthing West, Wrexham, Wycombe, York Outer, Ynys Mon.

Labour gain from SNP (26)

Airdrie & Shotts, Bathgate & Linlithgow, Coatbridge & Belshill, Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy, Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch, Dunfermline & Dollar, East Lothian, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Edinburgh North & Leith, Edinburgh South West, Glasgow East, Glasgow North, Glasgow North East, Glasgow South, Glasgow South West, Glasgow West, Glenrothes & Mid Fife, Hamilton & Clyde Valley, Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West, Midlothian, Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Rutherglen (by-election victory hold counting Rutherglen as the successor constituency to Rutherglen & Hamilton West), West Dunbartonshire.

Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative (39)

Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe, Carshalton & Wallington, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Chesham & Amersham (by-election victory hold), Didcot & Wantage, Dorking & Horley, Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Ely & East Cambridgeshire, Esher & Walton, Glastonbury & Somerton, Godalming & Ash, Guildford, Harpenden & Berkhamsted, Harrogate & Knaresborough, Hazel Grove, Henley & Thame, Honiton & Sidmouth (notional-new seat with incumbent Liberal Democrat MP who gained a predecessor seat in a by-election), Lewes, Mid Sussex, North Norfolk, North Shropshire (by-election victory hold), Romsey & Southampton North, St Ives, South Cambridgeshire, South West Hertfordshire, South Shropshire, Sutton & Cheam, Taunton & Wellington, Thornbury & Yate, Wells & Mendip Hills, West Dorset, Westmorland & Lonsdale (notional), Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, Yeovil.

SNP gain from Conservative (6)

All that are currently notionally held by the Conservatives on new boundaries.

Plaid Cymru gain from Conservative (1)

Caerfyrddin (notional).

Green gain from Conservative (1)

Waveney Valley

Ashfield Independents gain from Conservative (1)

Ashfield

Workers Party gain from Labour (1)

Rochdale

Independent gain from Labour (1)

Islington North

Liberal Democrat gain from SNP (3)

Caithness & Sutherland (notional), Mid Dunbartonshire, North East Fife (notional).

Alliance gain from DUP (1)

Belfast East.





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