The Northern Irish local elections of 2023-pushing further towards polarisation

The Northern Irish local elections of 2023 continued and sharpened trends seen in the 2019 Northern Irish local elections, 2019 general election (allowing for pacts that took place), and the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election in many respects.

Sinn Fein (SF) topped the poll for the first time in Northern Ireland's local elections, winning a total of 144 seats, an increase of 39 from 2019. Under Mary Lou McDonald's/Michelle O'Neill's leadership, Sinn Fein has flourished on both sides of the border, and nationalist votes have been coalescing primarily around them; furthermore, the nationalist-inclined population of Northern Ireland is increasing faster than that of the unionist-inclined population. Notable highlights for SF include taking overall control of Fermanagh & Omagh council and topping the poll in Derry & Strabane and Armagh City, Bainbridge & Craigavon for the very first time; normally due to STV with DEAs usually containing 5 or 6 seats apiece and the fact unionist and nationalist voters almost never allow their votes to transfer from one side to the other at all, any party gaining overall control of a Northern Irish council is not a possibility. Although the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) kept their seat total level at 122, they slipped to second place, repeating the historic blows to the unionists that occurred at the 2019 general election, where for the first time the number of nationalist MPs exceeded the number of unionist MPs in Northern Ireland, and despite the unionist vote coalescing around them more and more their vote share decreased by 0.8%. Arguably, breakdowns in power-sharing and Brexit-related woes, leaving the Assembly still nonfunctional, has cost the DUP dearly (NB: councils' powers are more limited in Northern Ireland than in England due to the responsibilities of the Northern Ireland Assembly); the DUP is refusing to power-share largely in protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol.

As expected, the nonsectarian Alliance Party reasserted themselves as Northern Ireland's third party, but they had a rather disappointing election. They only gained 14 seats and endured notable setbacks, including losing both seats in Derry & Strabane. The Alliance Party did not reach out much beyond its well-educated, middle-class base (similar to the Liberal Democrats' core base in Britain) which naturally due to historic and current economic disparities between unionist and nationalist voters in Northern Ireland (Belfast West, the strongest seat for the nationalists, has the highest unemployment rate in Northern Ireland, whereas North Down, the weakest seat for the nationalists and historically the strongest for the unionists, has the lowest unemployment rate in Northern Ireland) does not appeal well to nationalist-inclined voters, and increasing polarisation of Northern Irish politics at all levels is proving a double-edged sword for the Alliance. 

The more moderate and traditional unionist and nationalist parties, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Social & Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) continued their inexorable decline and are ceasing to become relevant as significant political forces in Northern Ireland. In the former case, they have been supplanted by the DUP in rural areas and the Alliance in metropolitan/suburban areas, and with "no religion" growing at a fast rate in Northern Ireland old religious and demographic ties are breaking down slowly but surely in Northern Ireland. The SDLP, meanwhile, is struggling to find any place in the Northern Irish landscape due to SF becoming more mainstream and having no other reliable base to fall back on due to industrial decline around Belfast in particular (the SDLP was formed not only from nationalist groups, but also nonsectarian labour organisations); even their historical bases (e.g. in Derry) are eroding significantly.

Their fate was better than that of smaller parties in Northern Ireland, who suffered a heavy squeeze due to the aforementioned polarisation. The Popular Unionist Party (PUP) lost both seats in Belfast, not even retaining their support in the working-class areas around Shankill, and only their sole councillor in Causeway Coast & Glens, Russell Watton, held his seat; the PUP has suffered a worse decline even than the UUP and could very well dissolve by the end of this decade. The Marxist People Before Profit movement took another hit, partly due to nationalist voters not having forgiven it for supporting Brexit, whose consequences are hurting Northern Ireland just as much as in the UK, even though the cost-of-living crisis should have endeared more voters to vote for them especially since they have been strongest in the poorest parts of Belfast e.g. Black Mountain (the site of a rare SDLP gain in fact), and the retirement of long-standing activist Eamonn McCann from the Northern Irish political scene has not helped them either. Even though spectacular Green gains in Britain should have encouraged a similar surge in Northern Ireland, the Green Party of Northern Ireland actually lost 2 seats, including that of their leader, Malachi O'Hara, in Belfast; like with last year's Assembly election they are losing ground to the Alliance Party which is moving in on environmental issues faster than either the unionists or the nationalists. Aontu, a minor pro-life and nationalist party, lost their only council seat in Northern Ireland, and significantly they performed poorly elsewhere in Derry & Strabane, one of the last holdouts of the socially conservative nationalist vote that proved valuable to the SDLP (SF's voter base is considerably more socially liberal). Only the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) amongst smaller parties gained any seats, and again this was due to annoyance at the DUP's intransigence more than anything else; their extreme positions even by unionist standards mean many voters will not preference them at all. Independents did not fare much better either, with most of the Independent gains stemming from councillors who had deserted their former parties.

Overall, all parties in Northern Ireland, especially smaller parties, need to think about their future and purpose, since this new political environment in Northern Ireland is here to stay for the foreseeable future and the Assembly needs to become functional soon.