Election predictions for 2023

First of all, my sincere apologies for the hiatus. I have just been taking a break from blogging for a while.

If the 2019 elections were dreadful for the Conservatives-they were their worst since 1995, in fact-the 2023 elections will be abysmal. Even in traditional heartlands Conservative candidatures-let alone the number of seats that will elect Conservative councillors, even accounting for boundary changes that have usually reduced the numbers of seats on said council-have decreased, a key example being Suffolk. Whilst Labour has regained considerable trust amongst the public under Sir Keir Starmer's leadership since the "Partygate" scandal that led to Boris Johnson's downfall, Labour's complacency on many councils means that they will be by no means home and dry come election day, and already there are signs that Labour's strong poll lead over the Conservatives may not last until the next general election, which is likely to be in autumn 2024.

Although the number of signatures required for candidate nomination has now permanently been reduced from 10 to 2 (initially this was a temporary measure during the COVID-19 pandemic) this has not always resulted in a greater number of candidatures from political parties and independents-sometimes, far from it.

At the same time, Liberal Democrat and Green candidacies have been increasing overall, often fielding full slates even in councils holding full council elections; conversely, Reform UK has not even come close to the candidate numbers UKIP once fielded, with their candidate numbers not even being double that of the hard left Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC). In fact, counting parties to the right of the Conservatives, their combined candidatures do not even match the totals fielded by various localist associations (e.g. Residents for Uttlesford).

With this in mind, which councils, amongst those with a realistic chance of changing hands, will change hands this year? 

Here are my current predictions:

Labour gain from Conservative: Swindon, Erewash.

Labour hold: High Peak, Chesterfield, Calderdale, Southampton, Sunderland, Bury.

Labour gain from NOC (no overall control): Cheshire West & Chester, Plymouth, Wirral, South Derbyshire, South Ribble, Crawley.

Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative: Stratford-on-Avon, East Cambridgeshire, Dacorum, West Berkshire.

Liberal Democrat hold: Woking, North Norfolk, North Devon, Gosport.

Green gain from Conservative: Mid Suffolk.

Conservative lose to NOC: Welwyn Hatfield, Tewkesbury, Pendle, Maidstone, Derbyshire Dales, Cannock Chase, Blaby, Amber Valley, South Gloucestershire, Basildon, West Lindsey, West Devon, Rugby, King's Lynn & West Norfolk, South Hams.

Conservative hold: Great Yarmouth, East Staffordshire, Bromsgrove, East Riding of Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire, Solihull, Walsall, East Suffolk, West Suffolk, Wealden, Wychavon, North West Leicestershire, North East Derbyshire, Newark & Sherwood.

Other holds: Epsom & Ewell RA hold Epsom & Ewell, Residents for Uttlesford hold Uttlesford, Ashfield Independents hold Ashfield.

NOC hold: Brighton & Hove, Bolton, Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole, Peterborough, Rutland, Stoke-on-Trent, Stockport, Warwick, Worcester, Tendring, Thanet, Broxtowe, Burnley, Canterbury, Boston, Mansfield, East Devon, Mid Devon, Torridge, Hastings.