Alan's Green Thoughts

  Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections, which all took place in electoral divisions in the borough of Dartford, Kent, were as follows: Dartford BC, Maypole & Leyton Cross: Conservative 334 (63.1%, -21.1%), Green 76 (14.4%), Labour 65 (12.3%, -3.5%), Liberal Democrats 54 (10.2%). Dartford BC, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley: Conservative 996 (67.8%, +18.4%), Labour 272 (18.5%, +4.9%), Liberal Democrats 200 (13.6%). [Previous Independent and UKIP did not stand] Kent CC, Wilmington: Conservative 1,787 (57.9%, -14.5%), Labour 613 (19.9%, -0.1%), Liberal Democrats 487 (15.8%), Green 200 (6.5%, -1.1%).  Although all three by-elections took place in very safely Conservative wards/divisions, the significant Conservative vote share decrease easily indicates the effects of "partygate" on the Conservatives even in such safe council seats as these; the Conservative vote only increased in the Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley by-election due...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first three weeks of January 2022 were as follows: (06/01/2022): Gedling DC, Cavendish: Liberal Democrats 344 (35.1%, +15.5%), Labour 303 (30.9%, -25.7%), Conservative 250 (25.5%, +1.8%), Fran Loi 56 (5.7%), Green 26 (2.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. (13/01/2022): Wychavon DC, The Littletons: Green 291 (39.1%, -6.3%), Conservative 274 (36.8%, -17.8%), Liberal Democrats 179 (24.1%). Green gain from Conservative. (20/01/2022): Charnwood DC, Loughborough Skelthorpe (double by-election): Labour 709/654 (50.3%, +16.9%), Conservative 311 (22.9%, +1.2%), Independent (Hayes)* 149 (11.0%), Liberal Democrats 136/104 (8.8%, -1.2%), Green 108/81 (7.0%, -7.6%).  East Lindsey DC, Chapel St Leonards: Conservative 436 (62.0%, -4.2%), Independent (Fenton) 267 (38.0%). East Lothian UA, Preston, Seton & Gosford (1st preference votes): Labour 1,793 (38.5%, -4.2%), SNP 1,217 (26.2%, -1.4%), Conservative 1,154 (24.8%, +0.7%)...

  It is that time again-to predict which councils in Britain will or could change control this May. And this year there is a lot of re-warding, particularly for every unitary authority in Wales and the majority of London boroughs. Since the story of lockdown parties surfaced last month, the Conservatives' poll ratings have been nosediving, and Labour have overtaken them for the first time in 7 years. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are still struggling even after that spectacular win of North Shropshire, and the Greens are doing better than ever. In Scotland, the SNP are still riding high but Plaid Cymru is struggling to make headway in Wales. So which councils could change hands this year, based not only on this news but also local circumstances? My predictions (for those councils with a reasonable chance of changing hands this May): Conservative hold: Amber Valley, Basildon, Gosport, Huntingdonshire, Walsall. Conservative lose to NOC (No Overall Control): Barnet, Maidstone, Worce...

Welcome to 2022, readers, which we should all hope is a much better and freer year than the last, not only in Britain but elsewhere across the world.  Political events to watch out for in 2022: 1. The French presidential election-how much has the shine really worn off Emmanuel Macron? 2. A snap election in Portugal, where Antonia Costa's coalition is standing on shaky ground. Will it hold on against the odds? 3. Can a big tent liberal-progressive-traditional conservative coalition finally oust Viktor Orban from the post of Hungarian PM? 4. Will the Republican advance be pushed back in the first set of US midterm elections in President Joe Biden's tenure? 5. The United Kingdom local elections-and Greater London's councils could see a substantial shake up with so many new ward boundaries for said councils (all borough councils in Greater London that did not have ward boundary changes in 2014 or 2018 will have them for this May). We also wave goodbye to three more county counc...