My analysis of British local by-elections in the run up to "Super Local Thursday"

In the run-up to "Super Local Thursday" i.e. 6 May 2021, there were some local by-elections in Scotland and Wales (but not England). The results of those local by-elections, spanning from 4 March to 8 April 2021, were as follows:

(4/3/21):

North Lanarkshire UA, Fortissat (1st preferences): Labour 1071 (38.4%, +1.9%), SNP 965 (34.6%, +5.5%), Conservative 656 (23.5%, +10.2%), Green 69 (2.5%), UKIP 31 (1.1%). Labour gain from SNP at stage 4. [NO Referendum-Maintain Union Pro-Brexit did not stand and no Independent candidate stood either]

North Lanarkshire UA, Thorniewood (1st preferences): Lab 998 (36.4%, -13.9%), SNP 944 (34.5%, -4.2%), Independent (Budd) 518 (18.9%), Con 212 (7.7%, -3.3%), Green 53 (1.9%), UKIP 15 (0.5%). Labour gain from SNP at stage 4.

(11/3/21):

Highland UA, Aird & Loch Ness (1st preferences): Independent Fraser 997 (28.3%), SNP 994 (28.2%, +5.9%), Con 824 (23.4%, +3.7%), Liberal Democrats 300 (8.5%, -1.7%), Green 272 (7.7%, +0.1%), Lab 133 (3.8%). Independent (Fraser) gain from another Independent at stage 5.

Scottish Borders UA, Leaderdale & Melrose (1st preferences): Con 1380 (39.9%, +8.0%), SNP 1042 (30.2%, +12.4%), Lib Dem 538 (15.6%, +6.2%), Independent (Douglas) 159 (4.6%), Green 152 (4.4%), Lab 115 (3.3%), Independent (Wilks) 69 (2.0%). Conservative gain from SNP at stage 5.

West Lothian UA, Livingston South (1st preferences):  SNP 2465 (43.9%, +3.0%), Lab 1382 (24.6%, -10.9%), Con 989 (17.6%, -1.8%), Independent (Millar) 332 (5.9%), Green 234 (4.2%, +1.7%), Lib Dem 185 (3.3%, +1.5%), UKIP 29 (0.5%). SNP hold at stage 7.

(18/3/21):

Argyll & Bute UA, Helensburgh & Lomond South (1st preferences): Con 1206 (50.7%, +11.7%), SNP 562 (23.6%, +5.8%), Lib Dem 333 (14.0%, -8.1%), Lab 133 (5.6%, -2.9%), Green 123 (5.2%), Workers' Party 22 (0.9%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat at stage 1.

Argyll & Bute UA, Isle of Bute (1st preferences): SNP 658 (32.7%, +0.7%), Independent (McCabe) 411 (20.4%), Independent (Gillies) 382 (19.0%, +6.4%), Con 338 (16.8%, +0.3%), Lab 224 (11.1%). Independent gain from SNP at stage 4.

Conwy UA, Eirias: Independent (Jones) 235 (34.1%), Con 180 (26.1%, +0.5%), Green 91 (13.2%), Lab 85 (12.3%), PC 66 (9.6%), Lib Dem 33 (4.8%). Independent gain from another Independent. [Other Independents did not stand]

Denbighshire UA, Corwen: PC 480 (65.6%), Lab 148 (20.2%), Lib Dem 104 (14.2%). 

Glasgow UA, Baillieston: SNP 1980 (43.8%, -0.8%), Lab 1278 (28.3%, -0.5%), Con 946 (20.9%, +0.0%), Green 200 (4.4%, +2.1%), Lib Dem 90 (2.0%, +0.1%), UKIP 26 (0.6%). SNP hold at stage 6.

Glasgow UA, Partick East/Kelvindale: SNP 2084 (32.3%, -2.2%), Lab 1836 (28.3%, +10.7%), Green 1200 (18.5%, +2.1%), Con 1084 (16.7%, -5.5%), Lib Dem 259 (4.0%, -4.5%), UKIP 33 (0.5%). Lab gain from SNP at stage 6.

Wrexham UA, Maesydre: Plaid Cymru 150 (30.7%), Lab 133 (27.2%, -17.0%), Con 123 (25.2%, +0.9%), Lib Dem 47 (9.6%, -11.5%), Independent (Ray) 36 (7.4%). Plaid Cymru gain from Labour.

(25/3/21):

Gwynedd UA, Llanrug: PC 431 (63.3%), Independent (Green) 221 (32.5%), Lib Dem 16 (2.3%) Independent (Bristow) 13 (1.9%).

Midlothian UA, Midlothian East (1st preferences): SNP 1538 (35.4%, +9.2%), Con 1279 (29.4%, +2.5%), Lab 1070 (24.6%, +1.9%), Green 282 (6.5%, +1.2%), Lib Dem 178 (4.1%). SNP hold at stage 4. [No Independent candidates this time]

Perth & Kinross UA, Almond & Earn (1st preferences): Con 1819 (51.2%, -8.4%), SNP 1327 (37.3%, +7.7%), Lib Dem 267 (7.5%, +1.9%)), Lab 143 (4.0%). Conservative hold at stage 1.

(1/4/21):

Monmouthshire UA, St Kingsmark: Con 439 (55.7%, +11.0%), Lib Dem 230 (29.2%, +23.1%), Lab 119 (15.1%, +5.9%). [No Independent candidates this time].

(8/4/21):

Torfaen UA, Abersychan: Lab 503 (49.8%, +21.1%), Independent (Hill) 176 (17.4%), Independent (Tomlinson) 175 (17.3%), Con 138 (13.6%, +4.0%), Propel 19 (1.9%). Labour gain from Independent.

Torfaen UA, Cwmyniscoy: Lab 155 (77.1%, +21.0%), Independent (Harris) 30 (14.9%), Propel 16 (8.0%). [UKIP did not stand]

Torfaen UA, New Inn: Con 641 (53.8%, -0.9%), Lab 344 (28.9%, -1.7%), Independent (Attfield) 206 (17.3%). 

Because handling of the coronavirus crisis in terms of restrictions is a devolved matter for the most part, the election results of these by-elections are more a reflection on the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd than on Westminster. Furthermore, all of the Welsh local by-elections listed here took place in small villages where local factors proved far more significant.

The evidence of unionist tactical voting against the SNP at election time grows stronger, with the SNP now suffering from "transfer-unfriendliness", a key factor in the rout of Fianna Fail in the 2011 Irish general election. The SNP lost 4 local by-elections where they increased their vote share compared to combined SNP totals in 2017, primarily due to Labour voters transferring their final preferences to the Conservatives and vice versa. Green voters in Scotland regularly transfer their votes to the SNP but this is not proving to be enough even with the Greens having done reasonably well in those Scottish local by-elections. Although the Scottish Parliament does not use Single Transferable Vote but rather the Additional Member System, "unionist" tactical voting will come strongly into play at constituency level for the upcoming Scottish Parliament election as it already has done for Scotland's Westminster seats. The defection of two SNP MPs to Alex Salmond's Alba Party (the MPs in question being Kenny MacAskill, MP for East Lothian, and Neale Hanvey, MP for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath), alongside several former SNP MPs (e.g. Tasmina Akhmed-Sheikh, Corri Wilson) will spell further trouble for Nicola Sturgeon even though Alba is polling an average of 3%, not enough to gain any list seats (although there is an outside chance of Alex Salmond winning a list seat in North East Scotland). Another theme is that Labour has been losing further ground in its former Scottish heartlands where it is no longer best placed to defeat the SNP. Independents performed particularly well overall in these by-elections, especially in rural areas. 

In Wales, Plaid Cymru, did not have to worry about vote splits as the SNP did; they defended both of their seats which had a by-election in ease, partly helped by the fact they were unopposed in both of those seats in 2017. Furthermore, they managed a surprising win in the Maesydre by-election even though Wrexham is poor territory for Plaid Cymru overall, helped by local credentials. On its inaugural run Propel, led by ex-Plaid Cymru MS Neil McEvoy, flopped in both the Torfaen by-elections it stood in, and it is clear that voters are tiring of his antics.

As expected, turnout levels dropped significantly in the Welsh by-elections due to coronavirus even though the R rate is lowering and things are easing up, but turnout held up much better in the Scottish by-elections. It is now just 18 more days until "Super Local Thursday" and a key test will be to see how well Sir Keir Starmer can recover ground lost by Jeremy Corbyn, inside and outside the "Red Wall"-this set of by-elections does not bode particularly well for Labour at present.




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of the Swedish general election of 2022

The Swedish general election of 2022 generated some surprising results, despite also averting pollsters' predictions significantly. The last three years in particular proved to be a rough ride for the Social Democrat led governments of Stefan Lofven and Magdalena Andersson respectively. Although Sweden's laxer approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to most countries in Europe, which imposed lockdowns during much of 2020 and 2021, an approach that arguably caused more problems than it solved) proved effective, Mr Lofven's desire to lift the austerity tax (which only affected a wealthy minority, similar in nature to the wealth tax initiative of former French President Francois Hollande) and to join NATO proved contentious, with two of the Social Democrats' former coalition partners (the Swedish Greens and Swedish Left Party, who had both pulled out of confidence and supply) unsurprisingly voting against Swedish accession to NATO membership (all other parties in the R
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian
Read more

On the Spanish regional elections of 2023-a warning for progressives

The Spanish regional elections of 2023, especially those in the "Empty Spain" regions far west of the federal capital of Madrid and prosperous yet famously rebellious Catalonia, resulted in a sharp shift towards conservatism and conservative populism. Both Partido Popular (PP, Spain's equivalent of the Conservatives) and Vox (the Spanish equivalent of Reform UK/UKIP) made sweeping gains in all regions, notably taking overall control in Madrid (normally an impossible feat under Spain's PR system), more than doubling their seat total in Valencia to top the poll there, and wresting control of Asturias, La Rioja, and Cantabria from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE, Spain's equivalent of Labour) and the Cantabrian Regionalist Party respectively. Under the tenure of Pedro Sanchez, the current PSOE-Podemos coalition is floundering and has not done much to ensure Spain's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic since the last restrictions ended in 2021, and P
Read more