My analysis of Scottish local by-elections of November 2020

Readers, the results of local by-elections in Scotland (none are scheduled for England or Wales until May 2021, despite the hundreds of council seat vacancies at present) during November 2020 were as follows (NB: votes shown are all indicative of 1st preferences, like all local by-elections in Scotland):

(5/11/20): 

Aberdeen UA, Kincorth/Nigg/Cove: SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7%), Conservative 709 (20.9%, -1.3%), Labour 429 (12.2%, -5.3%), Independent (Finlayson) 367 (10.5%, -0.4%), Liberal Democrats 128 (3.6%, -1.6%), Independent (McLean) 92 (2.6%), Green 58 (1.7%), Bellizzi Houston 31 (0.9%), Independent (Iroh) 16 (0.5%), Libertarian 16 (0.5%). SNP hold at stage 6.

(12/11/20): 

City of Edinburgh UA, Craigintinny Duddingston: SNP 2920 (39.0%, +1.8%), Con 1420 (18.9%, -4.8%), Lab 1205 (16.1%, -7.2%), Green 1185 (15.8%, +4.1%), Lib Dem 631 (8.4%, +4.2%), Independent (McDonald) 93 (1.2%), Libertarian 42 (0.6%). SNP hold at stage 6.

(19/11/20): 

Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannan East: Con 1226 (51.2%, +9.7%), SNP 766 (32.0%, +1.8%), Lab 195 (8.1%, -12.1%), Green 139 (5.8%, +2.0%), Lib Dem 69 (2.9%, -1.4%), Con hold at stage 1.

(26/11/20): 

Perth & Kinross UA, Perth City North: SNP 1406 (61.0%, +12.5%), Con 528 (22.9%, -2.7%), Lab 220 (9.5%, -6.3%), Lib Dem 91 (3.9%, +0.5%), Green 60 (2.6%). SNP hold at stage 1. [No Independent candidates stood this time]

Perth & Kinross UA, Perth City South: SNP 1898 (32.9%, +7.1%), Lib Dem 1823 (31.6%, -3.1%), Con 1698 (29.4%, +4.2%), Lab 204 (3.5%, -2.8%), Green 135 (2.3%, -0.7%), UKIP 18 (0.3%). Lib Dem gain at stage 5.

NB: Two local by-elections in North Lanarkshire originally scheduled for 19th November 2020 have been postponed to 4th March 2021 due to North Lanarkshire being moved to a higher tier of coronavirus restrictions.

Many election battles in Scotland, outside major cities and the Highlands & Islands region, are now primarily "unionist-nationalist" contests between the Conservatives and SNP similar to those seen in Northern Ireland. In all five cases Labour found themselves squeezed by the SNP and the Conservatives depending on their sympathy towards Scottish independence, although as the SNP found out in Clackmannan East, the Labour vote can only be squeezed so far in urban areas. The SNP-led Scottish Parliament's handling of the coronavirus crisis is clearly working reasonably well, as they increased their vote share in all five local by-elections.

The Craingintinny & Duddingston by-election in Edinburgh was the only by-election of this week which was not primarily a "unionist-nationalist" contest, with four parties having a reasonable chance to win a seat, although at the last Edinburgh City Council election the SNP vote was split between three candidates and they won just one seat. This time they had no trouble holding the seat despite a strong challenge from former Young Greens cochair Ben Parker for the Green Party; the impact of Brexit harmed both the Conservatives and Labour here.

The Liberal Democrat gain in Perth City South owes itself to long-established representation in the area and was the biggest surprise of these five Scottish local by-elections even though Perth & Kinross is normally dominated by "unionist-nationalist" contests; in 2017 80% of all council seats in Perth & Kinross were won either by the Conservatives (17) or the SNP (15). Like those contests, though, that Lib Dem gain was aided by transfers from voters unfriendly towards the SNP or Scottish independence.

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