New Brunswick breaks deadlock in tame 2020 election

 The Canadian province of New Brunswick's early election, called to break the deadlock after negotiations between Premier Blaine Higgs of the Progressive Conservatives and other parties failed, resulted in a small but decisive majority for the Progressive Conservatives.

Mr Higgs' tactic, however necessary, clearly worked-the Progressive Conservatives managed to come top of the poll with 39.41%, an increase of 7.52% over 2018. They increased their seat total by 7 to 27, giving them a majority of 5. There are only 49 members in the New Brunswick legislature so a majority of 5 is actually a working majority. The New Brunswick Liberals, meanwhile, led by Kevin Vickers even though he was not a sitting MLA, lost 3 seats, leaving them with 17, and dropped to 34.36%, and Mr Vickers did not come close to capturing the riding of Miramichi from the People's Alliance.

Despite high hopes and increasing awareness for the need for a green recovery in a post-coronavirus world, the Greens did not manage to gain any extra seats but did increase their vote share to 15.41%. They did however acquire more second places, especially around Fredericton, where their leader David Coon's seat is (Fredericton South). Neighbouring Fredericton North was the closest the Greens gained to winning an extra seat in New Brunswick's Legislative Assembly, finishing only 9.7% behind the Progressive Conservatives' Jill Green (incumbent Liberal MLA Stephen Horsman came third). The result nevertheless stands them in good stead to make considerable gains next time around.

Meanwhile, the conservative populist People's Alliance dropped to 2 seats and 8.95%, although unlike the Progressive Conservatives, Liberals and Greens they did not stand in all the provincial ridings of New Brunswick; as many as 13 ridings did not have a People's Alliance candidate in this New Brunswick election. Two of their sitting MPs, Michelle Conroy and leader Kris Austin, held on easily but Rick DeSaulniers was pushed into third place in by the Greens in Fredericton-York. Generally, their lost votes were to the benefit of the Progressive Conservatives; in each of the five ridings the Progressive Conservatives gained from the Liberals the People's Alliance candidate polled less than 10%. In most of the ridings held by the Liberals or Greens the People's Alliance candidate struggled to poll even 5% of the vote. As a consolation, the People's Alliance became the new challengers to the Progressive Conservatives in Saint Croix after the Liberal candidate there, John Gardner, was repudiated by the Liberals after nominations closed.

The New Democratic Party, who stood in only 33 of New Brunswick's provincial ridings, barely registered yet again, and their only decent results were finishing ahead of the People's Alliance in some ridings. The NDP has however never been a significant political force in New Brunswick, never having had more than 2 seats in the New Brunswick Assembly. Notably their leader, Mackenzie Thomson, polled a derisory 100 votes in Fredericton North. The KISS NB Party of Gerald Bourque polled even fewer votes than in 2018-139. 

Mr Higgs will continue as New Brunswick Premier but this time, with a working majority, he will not be held up by negotiations with other parties as he was in 2018. Despite the effects of coronavirus pandemic, turnout remained buoyant at 66.14%, a drop of only 1.2% on 2018, despite the factor of an early election also being present.

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