Why the Irish Greens should not join a Fianna Fail or Fine Gael led government in the Republic of Ireland

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the Green Party of Ireland are planning to formally enter a coalition with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael as a junior coalition partner-despite the wipeout they suffered last time they entered a coalition with Fianna Fail. Specifically, after being a hopelessly outnumbered coalition partner with Fianna Fail from 2007 to 2011 (Fianna Fail had 77 TDs, the Greens 6), the Greens lost all their TDs in 2011 and most of the Green candidates did not poll well enough to have election expenses returned, which was much worse than Fianna Fail's dreadful performance, where they lost more than 3/4 of their seats and were virtually wiped out in Dublin (they lost their only Dail seat in Dublin later that year after a by-election in Dublin West).

 To stop Sinn Fein getting any power in the new government (something Fianna Fail and Fine Gael also do not want to happen, as they see Sinn Fein as political extremists; Sinn Fein see them in turn as the tired old merry-go-round Establishment), the Greens have entered talks into a three-way coalition between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to obtain a government that can last throughout the lifespan of the current Dail, potentially until 2025. Here are three key reasons why they should not become coalition partners and should instead leave Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to find other coalition partners:

 1. The consistently poor environmental record of both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Fianna Fail's stance on green issues has not noticeably improved since their drubbing of 2011, and Fine Gael's record was no better, with the hated water charges being a case in point. It was revealed in the Irish Times that in the run-up to this year's Dail election in February they still had not grasped how important it was to take action on the climate emergency.  12 Green TDs will not be enough to keep a proper check on the total of 72 Fianna Fail and Fine Gael TDs, especially with Independents in rural constituencies less supportive of green issues (the majority of Green TDs in Ireland represent constituencies in Dublin). Neither of the two major players has shown 

 2. There is no guarantee that it will work out any better for the Irish Greens than during 2007-2011 if they entered such a coalition. As an example from Europe, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is currently in a coalition with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) despite the losses it incurred in 2009 (due to other coalitions not being viable); the SPD has been consistently polling below 20% since the 2017 Bundestag election, worse than when it was previously the junior partner in a grand coalition (2002-2005). In more recent, relevant terms, the Green Party of Sweden, having been part of a moderate coalition, came close to falling below the 4% threshold and losing all representation in the run up to the 2018 election there, and only narrowly survived in the Riksdag. In the 18 months since that election their popularity has not improved.

 3. It could split the Irish Green Party and undermine its core mission. Whilst the urbane side of the Irish Green Party is dominant there is, like in Great Britain, a substantial more traditionally green rural wing, as emphasised by for example Grace O'Sullivan MEP. The youth wing of the Irish Green Party is also strongly opposed to such a coalition due to the losses it caused the Irish Greens last time around, and because it would be too moderate and conservative in many respects.

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