2017 general election-my predictions on the Greens' 5 best chances
Those of you who read my blog and are members, or supporters, of the Green Party may have noticed that the five best chances for the Green Party are: to hold Brighton Pavilion, and to win Bristol West, Sheffield Central, the Isle of Wight, and Bath. The five women standing for this seats are incumbent MP Caroline Lucas, Molly-Scott Cato MEP, former Green Party leader Natalie Bennett, Vix Lowthion, and Eleanor Field.
Within those five seats, the Liberal Democrats are standing down in Brighton Pavilion: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-39729791, Andrew Turner has resigned his position as Conservative MP for the Isle of Wight: http://iwradio.co.uk/2017/04/29/political-parties-react-isle-wight-mp-andrew-turners-resignation/ , and green-leaning Liberal Democrat Jay Risbridger pulled out of Bath, to be replaced by Manda Rigby on the Liberal Democrats' side.
Brighton Pavilion: Unlike in 2015, Labour is not pulling out the stops to unseat Caroline Lucas, and in any case, Caroline increased her majority in 2015 from 1,232 to 7,969. With the Greens having retained most of their councillors in the Brighton Pavilion constituency in 2015 (despite losing 12 out of 23) and Caroline's hard work, her majority could reach over 10,000 this time. The only interesting thing that could happen here is Labour falling into third place for the first time since 1983. Dead cert Green hold.
Bristol West: Molly Scott-Cato has a higher national profile than Darren Hall, whose result put Bristol West into a list of future Green seats in the first place; the Green Party also leads the way in terms of representation in Bristol West's wards. As I mentioned earlier, she is likely to win but must not take it for granted nevertheless. Likely Green gain.
Sheffield Central. The Green Party's progress in Sheffield has not been as spectacular as that in Bristol, although since Natalie Bennett led the Green Party during its surges that helped it rise to prominence, and has been preparing for this snap general election, the Greens are in a better position than in 2015. One major obstacle in Natalie's way is the sheer size of the Labour majority-17,309 in a seat traditionally recording considerably lower turnouts than average, or 39.2%, and this is compounded by Jeremy Corbyn and Momentum able to appeal more in cosmopolitan Labour seats than average Labour seats. However, given that the nearly 20% swing needed for the Greens here was beaten in Bristol West in 2015, Natalie still has a chance in spite of the above. Likely Labour hold.
Isle of Wight. With UKIP no longer in contention, the Green Party will at least achieve second place, as they are the best-organised opposition to the long-standing Conservatives on the Isle of Wight. The fact Andrew Turner is now retiring may actually benefit the Conservatives, for it was his ineptitude and inability to organise properly that led to such a poor Conservative performance in 2015, but Vix Lowthion has done an excellent job of bringing a green voice to the Isle of Wight. Personal votes will be key to this battle. 50/50 Conservative hold/Green gain.
Bath. Eleanor Field was prepared for this snap general election as she was selected two months ago, and the Green Party has been working harder than ever in Bath, one of the most competitive small cities in the UK politically. See my earlier blog posts for everything else on my prediction of this seat. Likely Liberal Democrat gain/possible Green gain.
Five similar seats that the Green Party can gain later, if not at this election, and need to achieve a strong second place this year to win in the near future, include Oxford East, Hackney North & Stoke Newington, Hackney South & Shoreditch, Manchester Gorton, and Liverpool Riverside.
Within those five seats, the Liberal Democrats are standing down in Brighton Pavilion: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-39729791, Andrew Turner has resigned his position as Conservative MP for the Isle of Wight: http://iwradio.co.uk/2017/04/29/political-parties-react-isle-wight-mp-andrew-turners-resignation/ , and green-leaning Liberal Democrat Jay Risbridger pulled out of Bath, to be replaced by Manda Rigby on the Liberal Democrats' side.
Brighton Pavilion: Unlike in 2015, Labour is not pulling out the stops to unseat Caroline Lucas, and in any case, Caroline increased her majority in 2015 from 1,232 to 7,969. With the Greens having retained most of their councillors in the Brighton Pavilion constituency in 2015 (despite losing 12 out of 23) and Caroline's hard work, her majority could reach over 10,000 this time. The only interesting thing that could happen here is Labour falling into third place for the first time since 1983. Dead cert Green hold.
Bristol West: Molly Scott-Cato has a higher national profile than Darren Hall, whose result put Bristol West into a list of future Green seats in the first place; the Green Party also leads the way in terms of representation in Bristol West's wards. As I mentioned earlier, she is likely to win but must not take it for granted nevertheless. Likely Green gain.
Sheffield Central. The Green Party's progress in Sheffield has not been as spectacular as that in Bristol, although since Natalie Bennett led the Green Party during its surges that helped it rise to prominence, and has been preparing for this snap general election, the Greens are in a better position than in 2015. One major obstacle in Natalie's way is the sheer size of the Labour majority-17,309 in a seat traditionally recording considerably lower turnouts than average, or 39.2%, and this is compounded by Jeremy Corbyn and Momentum able to appeal more in cosmopolitan Labour seats than average Labour seats. However, given that the nearly 20% swing needed for the Greens here was beaten in Bristol West in 2015, Natalie still has a chance in spite of the above. Likely Labour hold.
Isle of Wight. With UKIP no longer in contention, the Green Party will at least achieve second place, as they are the best-organised opposition to the long-standing Conservatives on the Isle of Wight. The fact Andrew Turner is now retiring may actually benefit the Conservatives, for it was his ineptitude and inability to organise properly that led to such a poor Conservative performance in 2015, but Vix Lowthion has done an excellent job of bringing a green voice to the Isle of Wight. Personal votes will be key to this battle. 50/50 Conservative hold/Green gain.
Bath. Eleanor Field was prepared for this snap general election as she was selected two months ago, and the Green Party has been working harder than ever in Bath, one of the most competitive small cities in the UK politically. See my earlier blog posts for everything else on my prediction of this seat. Likely Liberal Democrat gain/possible Green gain.
Five similar seats that the Green Party can gain later, if not at this election, and need to achieve a strong second place this year to win in the near future, include Oxford East, Hackney North & Stoke Newington, Hackney South & Shoreditch, Manchester Gorton, and Liverpool Riverside.
Thanks for sharing your green thoughts, Alan. The clear information is Much appreciated in this chaotic confusing world where we are all suffering from information overload. Keep up the good work. Glad I discovered your blog. I share your green thoughts with my friends in the Erewash Green Party.
ReplyDeleteOoh, Alan I thought you understood better than this blog. Or atleast, here is my wisdom BEFORE the 2017 election. All our spectacularly good results in 2015 - including Bristol and Sheffield - were in places where a Labour win could be guaranteed. They liked our version of socialism better than Ed Miliband's. I went to help in the Isle of Wight because I knew what was going to happen due to the Corbyn phenomenon
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