Analysis of by-elections from 11/02/16

Readers, the results of yesterday's local by-elections were as follows:

Bolton MBC, Crompton: Labour 1,961 (70.9%, +7.0%), UKIP 321 (11.6%, -9.5%), Conservative 302 (10.9%, -0.7%), Liberal Democrats 117 (4.2%, +0.5%), Green 65 (2.8%).

Coventry MBC, Lower Stoke: Lab 1,235 (57.5%, +7.9%), Con 344 (16.0%, -5.2%), UKIP 290 (13.5%,-4.8%), Green 154 (7.2%, +1.1%), Lib Dem 124 (5.8%).

Eastleigh BC, West End North: Lib Dem 582 (53.0%, +13.2%), Con 315 (28.7%, -6.4%), UKIP 115 (10.5%, -4.9%), Lab 58 (5.3%, -4.3%), Green 28 (2.6%).

Hounslow LBC, Cranford: Lab 1264 (54.7%, +0.0%), Con 638 (27.6%, +1.7%), Lib Dem 265 (11.5%, +5.3%), UKIP 96 (4.2%, -9.1%), Green 48 (2.1%).

Notably, the Green Party candidate in Coventry, Aimee Challenor, has just become Green Party spokesperson on LGBTIQ rights, and given that the Lib Dems stood this time around when they did not last time in Lower Stoke, she has performed well in a solidly Labour ward (which the majority of wards in Coventry are, although this is not true in the southwest of Coventry) by finishing ahead of them and increasing the Green vote share. The lack of a TUSC candidate also proved helpful to the Green vote as it did to the Labour vote over in Coventry.

Elsewhere, apart from UKIP's vote share continuing to decline, nothing much happened in Bolton or Hounslow apart from us standing where we did not stand the last time those seats were up for election (the changes in Crompton, like those in Cranford are since 2014, not 2015, and thus from before the Green surge happened). Over in Eastleigh, the Lib Dems made some recovery in a ward the Conservatives came close to winning from them last year at the same time that Mims Davies, currently Conservative MP for Eastleigh, easily won the constituency from Mike Thornton.

Alan.

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