My analysis of local by-election results from 09/07/2015

Readers, the results from yesterday's by-elections which featured Green Party candidates (all except the local by-election in Gwynedd that was contested only by Plaid Cymru and a splinter group known as Llais Gwynedd), were as follows:

East Sussex CC, Old Hastings & Tressall: Labour 961 (56.5%, +7.4%), Conservative 368 (21.6%, +6.0%), UKIP 174 (10.2%, -12.2%), Green 149 (8.8%, +0.5%), Liberal Democrat 48 (2.8%, -1.6%).

Hastings BC, Central St Leonards: Lab 481 (44.0%, -9.1%), Con 259 (23.7%, +10.9%), Independent 184 (16.8%, +9.5%), UKIP 77 (7.0%, -8.8%), Green 75 (6.9%, -0.9%), Lib Dem 17 (1.6%, -1.5%).

Hastings BC, St Helens: Con 663 (43.5%, +3.6%), Lab 557 (36.5%, +2.1%), Lib Dem 136 (8.9%, -5.1%), UKIP 120 (7.9%, -13.9%), Green 48 (3.1%).

Hounslow LBC, Brentford: Lab 1292 (54.0%, +7.9%), Con 664 (27.7%, +13.2%), Green 209 (8.7%, -4.8%), Lib Dem 116 (4.8%, -1.3%), UKIP 113 (4.7%, -7.4%)

Hyndburn DC, Spring Hill: Lab 778 (55.3%, +5.4%), Con 475 (33.8%, -0.5%), UKIP 137 (9.7%, -6,1%), Green 17 (1.2%).

Sandwell MBC, Newton: Lab 1152 (59.1%, +11.1%), Con 452 (23.2%, -5.7%), UKIP 310 (15.9%, -7.3%), Green 36 (1.8%).

North Lanarkshire UA, Thorniewood (1st preference votes): SNP 1555 (47.0%), Lab 1410 (42.6%), Con 149 (4.5%), Scottish Socialist 81 (2.45%), Green 51 (1.55%), Christian Party 33 (1%), UKIP 29 (0.9%). SNP elected at stage 6.

Although none of these by-elections saw any change of hands, it is nevertheless noteworthy how unstable UKIP's support really is, since it fell sharply in all of these by-elections where the media was not paying attention. One useful feature of Green support is that it is considerably more stable in the long term, as these results showed even though we only managed an increased vote share in one of these by-elections.

The sharp Conservative increase in the Brentford by-election is perhaps not as surprising as one may think-having been heavily knocked back in Hounslow's most recent council elections of 2014 (they were reduced from 25 councillors in the borough to a rump of just 11, their heaviest local defeat in the Greater London area eclipsing Hammersmith & Fulham and even Ealing), and having lost the Brentford & Isleworth constituency to Labour two months ago, they likely wanted to show they were not uncompetitive even though they have not won the Brentford ward in decades. However, the fact that the Community Group did not stand in this by-election was also a factor (their voters were probably not that inclined towards Labour). On our side, we have usefully retained third place and retained more of our vote share than UKIP did.

It may be summer now, but I can assure you that all will be not quiet on the local by-election front (except regarding the overall turnout in said local by-elections in July and August).

Regards, Alan.

UPDATE: Full result of Thorniewood local by-election is now available and has been added to this blog post.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian ...
Read more

On the French local elections of 2020: Vive le surge de vert!

The French local elections finally concluded yesterday, having been originally scheduled to take place on 15 March; they were postponed due to the effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.  The most sensational story of these elections was the many triumphs by the main French Green Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV). In major French cities (those with more than 100,000 people), EELV captured the mayoralties of Annecy, Besancon, Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, and Tours. They also performed impressively in the munciipal elections for those cities as well. However, in the midst of all this triumph there was one notable setback for them: Eric Pollie, the first Green Mayor of a major French city, decided to contest the mayoral election there as an "Independent Left" (divers gauche) candidate instead. Furthermore they narrowly missed out on unseating former PS leader Martine Aubry from her post as Mayor of Lille; in the second round she held on by 227 votes, a sig...
Read more