Election predictions for 2021: counties
Readers, with the 2021 local elections in the United Kingdom now definitely taking place (in fact restrictions on canvassing will be lifted soon), it is time to make predictions about how many counties, and unitary authorities covering former county council areas, will change hands in terms of control. The majority of county councils up for election are safely Conservative, but many key battleground constituencies (pending boundary changes from the 2023 review) are within the boundaries of county council areas. Furthermore the aftermath of Brexit could lead to substantial Liberal Democrat and Green gains in county council divisions off-limits to Labour which also have a well-educated population. On recent opinion polls, Labour have been closing the gap with the Conservatives despite Sir Keir Starmer's relative lack of charisma and prowess, although the "vaccine bounce" has allowed the Conservatives under Boris Johnson to return almost to their 2019 vote share, having be...