Alan's Green Thoughts

Whilst I was busy concentrating on general election predictions and analyses in Britain, thousands of miles away in Australia, one of the best known autism advocates of our time, Polly Samuel (aka Donna Williams) passed away on 22 April. Donna Williams, born Donna Keene in Melbourne, most famously wrote books about her experiences as an autistic person in Australia, entitled 'Nobody Nowhere', 'Somebody Somewhere', 'Like Colour to the Blind: Soul Searching and Soul Finding', and many other non-fiction books on autism. I was inspired by many of her stories, particularly those from before my time since it is only in the decade I was born (the 1990s) that there has been proper recognition of the rights and needs of autistic people. Artist Jeanette Purkis, also an autistic author, has particularly thanked her for bringing positive change into the darkest moments of her life, and it is from her I first heard the news of Polly/Donna's untimely passing. Farewe...

Those of you who read my blog and are members, or supporters, of the Green Party may have noticed that the five best chances for the Green Party are: to hold Brighton Pavilion, and to win Bristol West, Sheffield Central, the Isle of Wight, and Bath. The five women standing for this seats are incumbent MP Caroline Lucas, Molly-Scott Cato MEP, former Green Party leader Natalie Bennett, Vix Lowthion, and Eleanor Field. Within those five seats, the Liberal Democrats are standing down in Brighton Pavilion: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-39729791 , Andrew Turner has resigned his position as Conservative MP for the Isle of Wight: http://iwradio.co.uk/2017/04/29/political-parties-react-isle-wight-mp-andrew-turners-resignation/  , and green-leaning Liberal Democrat Jay Risbridger pulled out of Bath, to be replaced by Manda Rigby on the Liberal Democrats' side. Brighton Pavilion: Unlike in 2015, Labour is not pulling out the stops to unseat Caroline Lucas, and in any ca...

General election polling can be inconsistent in terms of numbers, however, Labour is still performing poorly overall and is in particular losing its grip on older and more rural voters even in places traditionally inclined towards Labour. With the mines and old industry gone, demographic change is happening fast and many former mining towns are becoming commuter territory to major cities. Before this snap general election was announced, Labour's loss of Copeland in a by-election to the Conservatives gave hints that other long-held Labour seats could fall (Copeland fka Whitehaven had been held by Labour since 1935 before said by-election): https://greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/my-analysis-of-local-by-election.html With the gap between the Conservatives and Labour wider than ever, and with UKIP voters likely to turn towards the Conservatives especially in those types of constituencies (common factors include high proportion of people of socio-economic classes C2, D, an...

In 2015, at the height of the Liberal Democrats' meltdown, 12 of the Liberal Democrats' 57 seats were lost to Labour (as I mentioned earlier, 27 were lost to the Conservatives. 10 were also lost to the SNP and this will feature in tomorrow's analysis.) Given that Labour will suffer the most damage overall in this election (as it has many seats to lose; UKIP has little left to lose apart from votes as it now has no MPs and will lose its MEPs just like all other parties), will the Liberal Democrats be able to recover any of the 12? Cambridge. Julian Huppert's expertise, particularly in science, has been missed by many in this last Parliament, and he only lost Cambridge by 599 votes in 2015 with his vote share also having the 2nd lowest decrease amongst English Lib Dem MPs (it only dropped by 4.3%; David Ward's vote share dropped the lowest amongst Lib Dem incumbents in England with it dropping by only 4.2%). Although the Liberal Democrats have not made any more he...

The first round of the French Presidential election of 2017-one of the most important this year and certainly for a generation-has just concluded, and it proved to be a tighter race than pollsters believed. Less than 5% separated the top four candidates-Emmanuel Macron (En Marche), Marine Le Pen (Front National), Francois Fillon (Les Republicans) and Jean-Luc Melenchon (France Insubmissive). Benoit Hamon of the beleaguered Parti Socialiste, meanwhile, finished not only in fifth place as predicted but with a record low PS vote of 6.35%, even when he was endorsed by the French Greens' candidate, Yannick Jadot of EELV. Social democracy as a political force is experiencing a terminal decline, and this election represents yet another example of this, as M. Melenchon meanwhile achieved more than treble the votes of M. Hamon despite his poll surge coming too late for him to be a contender for the run-off. It was in the end Emmanuel Macron who topped the first round poll, and not M...

There has been much speculation over a Liberal Democrat revival for the 2017 general election, on the basis of Remain voters turning against the Conservatives, particularly when few pro-European Conservative MPs resisting Article 50 triggering or protecting the rights of EU nationals. However, it is clear that many former Liberal Democrat voters are still unwilling to trust the party again, especially those who voted Green in 2015. Of the 27 seats the Liberal Democrats lost to the Conservatives in 2015, will they be able to recapture any of them? 1. Eastbourne. What is most notable about this seat is that when the Conservatives won it back, the Conservative vote share actually decreased by 1.1%, even accounting for Nigel Waterson's defeat in 2010. The Liberal Democrats also retained control of Eastbourne council the very same day, and Stephen Lloyd is running once again. However, Eastbourne, due to its older and mostly British demographics, recorded a higher than average Leave ...

Parliament affirmed yesterday Theresa May's call for a snap general election, by a majority of 522-13 to confirm the date as 8th June 2017, just 7 weeks from now. (As a result, the Manchester Gorton by-election has now been countermanded, or cancelled, the first by-election to be countermanded in 94 years. Predicted by-elections in Leigh and Liverpool Walton will also not take place either.) Several MPs have already announced their retirement, including Birmingham Edgbaston's first (and so far only) Labour MP, Gisela Stuart, long-serving Southport Liberal Democrat MP John Pugh, and former Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, Conservative MP for Tatton since 2001. Current opinion polls show Labour trailing the Conservatives by as much as 20 percentage points, which would easily give the Conservatives a three-figure majority close to that achieved by Margaret Thatcher in 1983 (i.e. 144), even if the Liberal Democrats recapture some seats from the Conservatives (and eve...

Earlier today, to the surprise of many, Theresa May called a snap general election and announced that she intends for it to be held on 8th June 2017. This is a rather fitting date, given that this will be 34 years (less one day) since Margaret Thatcher's infamous landslide victory of 1983, and Theresa May is only the second female Prime Minister of the UK. Tomorrow, Parliament will almost certainly vote to approve this move, given that almost every party now backs an early general election to end this speculation and uncertainty. So what will it all mean? Well, since there will only be a short time to campaign, and because Labour are so divided, the Conservatives are on course to achieve a much increased majority, and possibly even a 3-figure landslide victory and win seats they have never won in living memory. In many ways this would be reminiscent of Harold Wilson's victory of 1966, which not only increased Labour's small majority of 4 straight up to 96 but also deliv...

Local elections for all the authorities in Scotland and Wales (which are all unitary authorities) will see many interesting contests, especially in Scotland where the Single Transferable Vote system is used in elections (however, the fact that all wards have to have 3 or 4 members means it is often not too proportional when it comes to smaller parties being represented). Most Scottish councils have also experienced significant local boundary changes for this year's elections. Labour's loss of support in rock-solid heartlands of Wales gives Plaid Cymru one of its best chances against Labour in local elections, and needless to say the Conservatives have their chances as well in Wales, particularly in Clwyd (read: Conwy, Flintshire & Denbighshire). The SNP are set to make large numbers of council gains in Scotland, especially in the Glasgow commuter belt (old Lanarkshire, basically) and of course the city of Glasgow itself. However, at the same time, the Conservatives are s...

Readers, the results of local by-elections from yesterday were as follows: Middlesbrough UA, Coulby Newham: Conservative 501 (38.5%, +10.3%), Labour 468 (35.5, -8.2%), Independent 318 (24.1%), Green 32 (2.4%). Conservative gain from Labour. West Dorset DC, Piddle Valley: Conservative 303 (60.8%, -8.0%), Green 195 (39.2%, +19.4%). Normally in local by-elections, the absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate in a seat held by Labour is overall helpful to Labour, but in places where Labour are dominant and voters seek a credible anti-Labour vote, this is not the case. Combined with the overall competitiveness of Coulby Newham ward, and strong support for Independents, a Conservative gain was not surprising at all. In Piddle Valley, the fact that the Green Party was the only opponent to the Conservatives did not make a real difference, as the Conservatives still held the ward with ease albeit on a considerably reduced majority. This is an important consideration given the use ...