Alan's Green Thoughts

'A week is a long time in politics.' -Harold Wilson, UK Prime Minister (Labour) from 1964-70 and again from 1974-76. The results of what will be the last local by-elections in the UK until the 2017 general election (some by-elections will take place on the same day) were as follows: King's Lynn & West Norfolk DC, Fairstead: Labour 254 (44.0%, +4.4%), Conservative 189 (32.8%, +4.4%), UKIP 68 (11.6%, -20.2%), Liberal Democrats 66 (11.4%). South Derbyshire, Woodville: Con 613 (46.3%, +11.9%), Lab 510 (38.5%, +5.4%), UKIP 118 (8.9%, -14.8%), Lib Dem 82 (6.2%, -2.5%). Enfield LBC, Enfield Lock: Lab 2155 (63.8%, +12.7%), Con 973 (28.8%, +13.3%), Green 104 (3.1%, -6.4%), UKIP 91 (2.7%, -15.0%), Lib Dem 54 (1.6%). Stockton-On-Tees UA, Newtown: Lab 483 (52.5%, -2.4%), Con 201 (21.8%, +6.3%), No Description 193 (21.0%), Lib Dem 43 (4.7%). Southend-on-Sea UA, Shoeburyness: Independent 886 (37.1%, +16.2%), Con 830 (34.8%, +10.7%), Lab 381 (16.0%, +6.6%), UKIP 121 (5.1%...

Mostly within British elections, independents and minor parties (those without enough candidates to get a Party Political Broadcast and which do not feature in national opinion polls anywhere in the UK) are not in contention at all and are lucky if they can get the 5% of the votes cast needed to get their £500 deposit returned. This includes MPs who have left their party and try to hold their seats as Independents (they almost always fail): These constituencies provide notable exceptions to this rule, though: Bradford East: David Ward, whose own campaigning in the predecessor seat, Bradford North, was responsible for his (i.e. the Liberal Democrats') gain of Bradford East in 2010 in the first place (he lost it in 2015 but his vote shared only decreased by 4.2%, far less than the Conservatives' vote share did). He was sacked for anti-Semitic comments shortly after reselection and is now an Independent candidate, which will in any event cause the Liberal Democrat vote to plu...

Recently, two Landtag elections were held in Germany, those of Schleswig-Holstein and Nordrhein-Westfalen (North Rhine-Westphalia), two key battleground states in Germany, which has its Bundestag election in September this year. Both results dealt a critical blow to SPD (Social Democratic Party) lead candidate for the Bundestag, Martin Schulz, the former leader of the S&D group in the European Parliament, who was closing the gap on CDU (Christian Democratic Union) Chancellor Angela Merkel after he was selected by the SPD. In Schleswig-Holstein, the SPD only lost one of their seats and their coalition partners the Greens did not lose any, but this was enough for the CDU to take the lead, meaning that Daniel Gunther will likely replace Torsten Albig as Minister-President of Schleswig Holstein, particularly since the Free Democrats (FDP) gained three extra seats compared to 2012. CDU-FDP coalitions have occurred many times at Landtag and Federal level in Germany, the m...

With nominations for the 2017 general election having closed yesterday afternoon, it is clear that the surprise general election turned up with fewer candidates as a result. Due to 'Progressive Alliances' and 'Regressive Alliances', many seats have ended up with only 3 candidates (from Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats) for the first time in 12 years or more, and many constituencies have no Green or UKIP candidate (not many have both a Green candidate and a UKIP candidate either, in addition to the major parties above). The Liberal Democrats are also not standing in Skipton & Ripon or Brighton Pavilion, in endorsement of the Green Party candidates there. The total number of candidates in this election is 3,301, down more than 1000 from the last general election. Unsurprisingly, the Prime Minister's constituency, Maidenhead, attracted the most candidates, with 13 on the ballot, whereas Islington North, held by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, att...

Three days ago, the second round of France's momentous 2017 Presidential election ended, with centrist Emmanuel Macron of the En Marche! movement defeating Front National's Marine Le Pen by the wide margin of 66.1% to 33.9% (although this is not as wide as the margin by which Jacques Chirac defeated Marine's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, back in 2002). Marine Le Pen finished ahead in only two departments, which unsurprisingly were in the north of France; one covered the key port of Calais. Like in 2002, the second round was a foregone conclusion, as voters rallied round to stop the extremist Mme. Le Pen from winning, and it succeeded. However, M. Macron's desire to 'reform' the French economy sparked protests the same day he was confirmed as winner of the said French Presidential election; M. Macron is a former banker and in league with wealthy elites in practice, and therefore is not as 'progressive' as some have imagined. Two days later, the Canadian ...

Scottish and Welsh local elections proved to be a very interesting story for local elections this year, and this is the first time in many years that Scottish, Welsh, and English local elections have been held on the same day-4 May 2017. The SNP underperformed despite still being the dominant force in Scotland-they lost control of both Angus and Dundee councils and failed to gain overall control of any council, even Glasgow. In fact, despite a pro-unionist Conservative surge, not a single Scottish council is under single-party control anywhere. The SNP overall lost 7 seats, as their gains from Labour were counteracted by losses to the Conservatives and Independents (and sometimes the Greens), especially in rural areas where effectively only the SNP and the Conservatives are in play. However, the SNP gained largest party status in Glasgow, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire, Fife, Falkirk, West Dunbartonshire, West Lothian, Aberdeen, and by just one seat, Edinburgh (which I initially...

The Metropolitan Mayoral elections also showed up some surprising results, particularly in areas thought favourable for Labour, alongside low turnouts. This is not surprising given Britain's general dislike of US-style mayoral systems, and the amount of taxpayers' money being used to fund these positions. The West Midlands Mayoral election proved to be a critical blow to Labour, since Andy Street of the Conservatives narrowly defeated MEP Sion Simon.  However, he only did so by 6,021 votes in round one and 3,746 votes after 2nd preferences, a margin of less than 1%. The marginal boroughs of Dudley and Walsall, so often contested highly by both Labour and the Conservatives, proved to be decisive in Andy Street's win, as he won both by very substantial margins indeed. In another blow for UKIP, it was the Liberal Democrats who finished third instead of them, even though the only areas of Liberal Democrat support in the West Midlands conurbation are in Solihull and the Yardle...

'[UKIP}, you are the weakest link. Goodbye!' - Anne Robinson back when she hosted the Weakest Link. NB: The 'unitarised' county councils (i.e. Cornwall, Durham, Isle of Wight, Northumberland, Shropshire, and Wiltshire) are covered here as well. R eaders, the results of the 2017 county council (and unitarised county council) elections in Britain, just five weeks before the snap election, are finally here. The biggest story of the night is how UKIP have been wiped off the map, losing every single seat even in their best counties of Essex, Kent, and Lincolnshire. In fact, UKIP lost every single one of their 147 county council seats, gaining only Padiham & Burnley West in return. The majority of UKIP's losses, and ex-UKIP votes, benefitted the Conservatives mainly at Labour's expense, but not all of them; however, it benefitted them where it mattered, such as in Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, and Warwickshire. UKIP were wiped off the map in county council...

Two years ago, the SNP almost swept the board in Scotland's Westminster constituencies, winning 56 out of 59, leaving Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats with just one seat apiece in Scotland. Now, especially in light of the overall 2016 Scottish Parliament result, and with the SNP already having reached their high watermark in 2015, the SNP stand to lose at least a few seats. Most SNP seats will remain SNP, especially as 40 of them were gained from Labour and the 6 they had prior to their historic victory (Moray, Banff & Buchan, Perth & North Perthshire, Dundee East, Na h-Eileanan an lar, and Angus) will firmly remain in SNP hands, despite the Conservatives' best efforts under Ruth Davidson to make a credible challenge. Labour has fallen further in Scotland in the last 2 years and has no realistic chance of winning any of their lost seats back in this election. Could the SNP lose any of their 10 most marginal seats? 1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh ...