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Showing posts from February, 2017

My analysis of local by-election results from 23/2/17 and 5 other reliable Labour seats that could fall at the next election

Whilst the two parliamentary by-elections of Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland went on, four local by-elections went on this week. Here are their results: (21/2/17):  Basingstoke & Deane BC, Winklebury: Labour 824 (61.6%, +31.1%), Conservative 472 (35.3%, -10.1%), Liberal Democrats 42 (3.1%, -2.7%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since May 2015. (23/2/17): Epping Forest DC, Chigwell Village: Conservative 453 (76.0%, +1.0%), Liberal Democrats 143 (24.0%). All changes are since May 2016. Kettering BC, Barton: Liberal Democrats 644 (57.0%), Conservative 337 (29.8%,-19.3%),UKIP 106 (9.4%, -14.0%), Green 42 (3.7%, -3.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. South Hams DC, Charterlands: Liberal Democrats 473 (46.1%), Conservative 404 (39.3%, -25.0%), Labour 110 (10.7%), Green 40 (3.9%, -15.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Those three local by-election Conservative losses mar their otherwise good night in the two parliamentary by-...

Labour stay steady in Stoke-but can't cope in Copeland

In case you have not heard, the results for the Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland parliamentary by-elections were as follows (Stoke declared first): Stoke-on-Trent Central: Mohammed Akram, Independent, 56 (0.3%) Zufliqar Ali, Liberal Democrats, 2,083 (9.8%, +5.7%) Jack Brereton, Conservative, 5,154 (24.3%, +1.8%) Adam Colclough, Green Party, 294 (1.4%, -2.2%) Godfrey Davies, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 109 (0.5%) Nick 'The Flying Brick' Delves, OMRLP, 127 (0.6%) Barbara Fielding-Morriss, Independent, 137 (0.7%) David Furness, BNP, 124 (0.6%) Paul Nuttall, UKIP, 5,233 (24.7%, +2.1%) Gareth Snell, Labour, 7,853 (37.1%, -2.2%) Labour HOLD. Copeland: Michael Guest, Independent, 811 (2.6%) Rebecca Hanson, Liberal Democrats, 2,252 (7.2%, +3.7%) Trudy Harrison, Conservative, 13,784 (44.2%, +8.5%) Roy Ivinson, Independent, 116 (0.4%) Jack Lenox, Green Party, 515 (1.7%, -1.3%) Fiona Mills, UKIP, 2,025 (6.5%, -9.0%) Gillian Troughton, Labour...

My questions for the Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central by-elections

Tomorrow, voters will go to the polls in places that are in two very different environments: Copeland (rural/small town) and Stoke-on-Trent Central (inner city). These two different environments have key similarities: both are Labour seats that have been held continuously since 1935 (Copeland was called Whitehaven until 1983 and Stoke-on-Trent Central was simply called Stoke until 1950, but the areas they cover are essentially the same), both heavily voted to leave the EU last year, both had once-proud industries which have largely disappeared and been replaced (somewhat), and both contain significant sectors of working-class voters who are gradually shifting away from Labour in different directions. Both of these by-elections will prove critical tests for Labour, given that since Theresa May took office as Prime Minister last year, they have almost always been at least 10 percentage points behind the Conservatives in opinion polls of varying kinds. However, opinion polls ar...

My analysis of by-elections from 16/2/17 and commending those opposed to CETA

Readers, the results of yesterday's local by-elections were as follows: Cheshire East UA, Bollington: Bollington First 939 (50.6%, +15.5%), Conservative 319 (17.2%, -14.7%), Labour 239 (12.9%, -9.7%), Liberal Democrats 198 (10.7%, +0.1%), Green 162 (8.7%). Bollington First gain from Conservative. Dudley MBC, St Thomas's: Labour 1466 (60.6%, +0.3%), UKIP 653 (27.0%, -2.0%),Conservative 249 (10.3%, -0.2%), Green 52 (2.1%). All changes are since May 2016. East Staffordshire DC, Burton: Liberal Democrats 271 (52.7%, +5.2%), Labour 127 (24.7%, -5.4%), UKIP 60 (11.7%), Conservative 56 (10.9%, -11.9%). Forest of Dean DC, Lydbrook & Ruardean: Green 360 (35.3%, +18.4%), Conservative 248 (24.3%, +7.6%), Labour 231 (22.7%, +2.5%), UKIP 113 (11.1%, -9.7%), Liberal Democrats 67 (6.6%). Green gain from UKIP. Oldham MBC, Failsworth East: Labour 829 (58.4%, -7.3%), Conservative 360 (25.4%, -1.6%), UKIP 166 (11.7%), Green 49 (3.5%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 16 (1.1%, -1.8%). All c...

Why whistleblowing is an essential part of a fair and democratic society

Government advisers have recently floated plans to make distributing material that 'is capable of benefitting a foreign power' (a very vague definition indeed) punishable by up to 14 years' imprisonment: http://evolvepolitics.com/journalists-leak-information-jailed-under-tory-legislation/ This same proposed legislation would also remove a critical public interest defence for finding, handling, and releasing this critical information. This would be chilling to whistleblowers, journalists, and upholders of fair justice and free speech everywhere. Even elected politicians could be caught out. Only through whistleblowing and risk have we been able to expose such things as the Panama Papers and real causes behind the financial crisis that we are still suffering the effects of today. Whistleblowing is an essential part of a free, fair and democratic society for a variety of important reasons. Firstly, we must be free to alert the public to wrongdoing and law-breaking that...

My analysis of by-elections from 9/2/17 plus a postcard from Liechtenstein

Readers, the results of local by-elections from yesterday were as follows: Corby BC, Kingswood & Hazel Leys: Labour 610 (64.6%, +9.2%), Conservative 252 (26.2%, +14.0%), Green 82 (8.7%, -0.5%). Cotswold DC, Fairford North: Liberal Democrats 610 (68.1%, +40.2%), Conservative 270 (30.1%, -20.9%), Green 16 (1.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Fylde DC, St John's: Fylde Ratepayers 564 (60.8%, +19.1%), Conservative 278 (30.0%, +5.1%), Labour 45 (4.9%, -10.1%), Green 40 (4.3%). North Norfolk DC, Waterside: Liberal Democrats 649 (55.1%, +30.5%), Conservative 410 (34.8%, -4.7%), UKIP 77 (6.5%, -14.8%), Labour 41 (3.5%, -5.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Tendring DC, Great & Little Oakley: UKIP 210 (36.8%, +14.1%), Conservative 171 (29.1%, +1.4%), Labour 117 (19.9%, +5.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (14.1%). UKIP gain from Independent. And one particular town council by-election: Prescot TC, Prescot East: Green 270 (44.9%), Liberal Democrats 211 (3...

Why there must be a Commons debate on CETA

The dangerous CETA (Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement) between the European Union and Canada will be voted on by the European Parliament next week, and given the current make-up and the positions of the largest political groups, it is likely to be approved. Currently, many EU member states are in favour of this deal, which like the aborted TTIP/TPP deals, will give unprecedented and dangerous power to multinational corporations, and will benefit Canada far more than it will benefit Europe in any case. The Conservative government is attempting to push this through without any parliamentary debate, even though it granted one (reluctantly) for the Article 50 trigger; both have serious consequences for the people of Britain. If it passes, increasing privatisation of our NHS will be effectively irreversible (as will a number of other things) due to the fact that CETA has the dangerous Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism in the same way that TTIP and TPP d...

My by-election analysis of 2/2/17 and MPs for 'Remain' constituencies who nevertheless voted for the Article 50 Bill

Readers, the results from the two local Rotherham by-elections that featured Green candidates were as follows: Rotherham MBC, Brinsworth & Catcliffe: Liberal Democrats 2000 (66.0%, +48.7%), Labour 519 (17.1%, -20.2%), UKIP 389 (12.8%, -19.5%), Conservative 91 (3.0%, -10.0%), Green 30 (1.0%) Rotherham MBC, Dinnington: Labour 670 (36.1%, +9.0%), UKIP 303 (16.3%, -10.6%), Conservative 238 (12.8%, -1.7%), Independent (Smith) 232 (12.5%, -7.9%), Independent (Hart) 180 (9.7%), Independent (Scott) 81 (4.4%), Green 78 (4.2%, -7.0%), Liberal Democrats 75 (4.0%). With UKIP continuing to fall, the Liberal Democrats are once again acting as a protest vote in working-class areas, despite bad memories of the Con-Dem coalition. The Brexit issue, which opinion polls are currently claiming is the #1 issue in British politics today, was also a factor in the Brinsworth & Catcliffe by-election in particular and accounts for the enormous surge in the Liberal Democrats' vote, and in Rotherha...

Green songs and poetry: The Green Flag (official and international lyrics)

With the next Green Party conference to coincide with the European Greens and Global Greens Congresses, it is time I released a fuller, modern version of The Green Flag: 1. The people's flag is brightest green, Let's emblazon its verdant sheen! For here those trees grew stiff and cold, Their sap dyed our flag's every fold. Let's raise the emerald standard high, Within its shade, we'll live and die! Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer, We'll keep the green flag flying here! 2. Look round, the French do chant its praise, The modern Germans know its place On Bristol harbour, its hymns were sung, Round Amsterdam our flag was hung, Let's raise the emerald standard high, Within its shade, we'll live and die! Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer, We'll keep the green flag flying here! 3. Our flag shall fly with this strong breeze, Across the land, the air, and our seas, It witnessed many a deed and vow, We must not change its ...