Alan's Green Thoughts

The North East England region is the smallest in terms of electorate and also by population size; it is also a very contrasting region with the densely populated, urbanised and well-connected Tyne & Wear Region in the middle and with the rural and remote county of Northumberland at its northern tip; Northumberland is the least densely populated county in the whole of England, with only 62 people per square kilometre living there according to the 2011 census. This region also has proportionally the most constituencies to lose in England, with its seat entitlement decreasing from 29 to 25 (a loss of 14% of its current seats). It also has few small wards since there are no longer any small districts, making drawing new rural constituencies difficult. Even though the wards of the metropolitan constituencies are reasonably small, it is easy to get it wrong if you do not read the map correctly and work out (in Newcastle's case) where to put the practically unavoidable 'Tyne Bri...

Recently, Iceland's parliament, the Althing, held its latest parliamentary election, which was called early after a scandal involving offshore tax funds prompted calls for new elections. The world's media then focused on the leader of the Pirate Party, Birgitta Jonsdottir, since she was tipped to be the next Prime Minister of Iceland and because she was leading the most successful Pirate Party in the world. (By comparison, Britain's Pirate Party is barely existing, and Germany's has fallen from grace) Despite all these expectations, the Pirate Party actually finished third in the poll, behind the Left-Green movement (Iceland's Green Party) albeit with the same number of seats (10) as Left-Green and with them nearly trebling their 2013 performance (14.5% vs. 5.1%). This is because a lot of the Pirates' base is among young voters, who as in other countries are less inclined to vote than older people; the problem of young abstainers is by no means confined to the...

Earlier this week, the Conservative MP for Richmond Park, Zac Goldsmith (also their failed Mayor of London candidate) resigned his seat over the approval of an unnecessary and deeply harmful third runway at London's famous Heathrow Airport, to recontest it as an independent. Which brings us to fundamentally why we do not need a new runway at Heathrow, or indeed anywhere else in the United Kingdom: 1. Fossil fuel aircraft cause enormous environmental damage, and this hurts people as well. In Greater London alone air pollution kills nearly 10,000 people per year. Aircraft are the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world. We instead need to focus on improving international transport infrastructure in Europe and facilitate greater use of online communication (e.g. Skype) so that people will not have to fly around the world for work. 2. Technology is now innovating faster than we can build hubs that are based on current technology. New runways take several y...

This is another area where the Boundary Commission's initial proposals have caused a real mess, just to protect constituencies in Wandsworth (only Tooting is in quota anyway) at the expense of other natural communities in the area, particularly Wimbledon. With some tinkering and ward-splitting, it is possible to get much better constituencies in this area, avoid splitting Wimbledon or Mitcham & Morden, and yet still retain coherent Wandsworth constituencies. Lambeth, which consists of five broad areas (Vauxhall, Clapham, Streatham, Brixton, and Norwood) needs to be dealt with carefully in terms of preserving community identities. Transport links must also be considered as well as historical connections, particularly those between Streatham and Clapham (Streatham has included most of Clapham since 1974); I firmly believe it is time the community of Clapham was reunited, its northern half being separated from Vauxhall. This allows a return of the old Brixton constituency, lat...

Due to the quota requirements set out in the 2018 review, South East London (Southwark, Lewisham, Greenwich, Bexley, and Bromley) will see quite substantial change. The BCE's initial proposals constitute yet another 'botch' and do not properly take into account the real links between these areas, the routes of the London Overground line and Southeastern railway line in particular, or the fact that 51 years on from the creation of the current London boroughs, the old districts they replaced still have a sense of identity and this is respected when local ward boundaries are drawn (usually). Contrary to what is first believed, Lewisham Deptford can be saved if the 'Lewisham' parts are moved to other constituencies, leaving the four 'Deptford' wards behind, and there is no need to combine Peckham with Lewisham. The Crystal Palace community within Bromley should not be split either, as the BCE proposes, but should be kept whole when combined with the rest of ...

The considerable number of slightly undersized and slightly oversized constituencies in this area, comprising the boroughs of Brent, Ealing, Harrow, Hillingdon, Hounslow, Kingston-upon-Thames, and Richmond-upon-Thames, means some change will be needed (except in Kingston and Richmond), but as long as the idea of reviving Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush is mooted, creating sensible constituencies will be relatively easy. It is important to note that Southall & Heston should actually include all of the main Southall area, which the initial proposal does not, but disconnecting Hammersmith from North West London helps solve this problem. I am pleased that the initial proposals reunite the community of Hounslow within the wider borough of Hounslow, even at the expense of placing an Ealing ward in Brentford & Isleworth's successor, Brentford & Chiswick (which still has Isleworth in it). Reuniting Yiewsley with West Drayton regarding Hayes & Harlington, is also a ...

In case you have not heard, the result for the Witney by-election was as follows: Emilia Arno, One Love Party, 44 (0.1%) Kendrick 'Dickie' Bird, UKIP, 1,354 (3.5%, -5.7%) David Bishop, Bus-Pass Elvis Party, 61 (0.2%) Robert Courts, Conservative, 17,313 (45.0%, -15.2%) Duncan Enright, Labour, 5,765 (15.0%, -2.2%) Mad Hatter, Monster Raving Loony Party, 129 (0.3%) Lord Toby Jug, Eccentric Party of Great Britain, 59 (0.2%) Adam Knight, Independent, 27 (0.1%)* Elizabeth 'Liz' Leffman, Liberal Democrats, 11,611 (30.2%, +23.4%) Winston McKenzie, English Democrats, 52 (0.1%) Helen Salisbury, National Health Action Party, 433 (1.1%, +0.0%) Larry Sanders, Green Party, 1,363 (3.5%, -1.6%) Daniel Skidmore, Independent, 151 (0.4%) Nicholas Ward, Independent, 93 (0.3%) As expected, Robert Courts retained the seat for the Conservatives, in spite of a strong campaign from the Liberal Democrats and also a good campaign from my Green colleagues. Interesting...

Tomorrow, voters go to the polls for the Witney by-election over in Oxfordshire, caused of course by the resignation of ex-Prime Minister David Cameron. Despite the fact that Witney is an extremely safe Conservative seat (as was its predecessor, Mid Oxfordshire; before 1974 Witney was in the Banbury constituency), my Green colleagues, as well as the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning hard (meanwhile, Labour and UKIP have been much less visible, and other candidates are only getting online coverage at present), so this will certainly be one to watch, particularly with some poor performances in hustings by Conservative candidate Robert Courts. As for the by-election in Batley & Spen, where out of the five main parties only Labour are standing, little is happening apart from the hardline nationalist English Democrats crowding out the Twitter coverage for that by-election as much as they can and resorting to anything to attack Labour. Nevertheless, here are my five questions a...

The fact that a cross-Lea constituency between Enfield and Waltham Forest is not viable, as I mentioned earlier, also creates issues with North London, as does the lack of proper connections between Barnet and Harrow. Therefore, just as the Boundary Commission has proposed, Barnet needs to be linked with Enfield via the North Circular Road and with Camden via the Northern line on the London Underground. Naturally, Haringey needs to be included in the North London pair as well. Generally, the BCE is thinking along the correct lines for this area, although there is no need to put Islington wards into a Holborn & St Pancras seat, and their initial proposal for that seat does not actually contain Holborn. As for Central London, although an argument could be made for having the entire Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea into one seat, the connections between it and Hammersmith & Fulham/Westminster tell a different story. I also believe that Hornsey & Wood Green shoul...

In my opinion, East London (Islington, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, and Newham) has been badly botched by the Boundary Commission's initial proposals, who have failed for a start to look at the proper transport connections within this area (where public transport is very important) or the community ties between different parts of these four boroughs. If it were not for the fact that a cross-Lea constituency between Edmonton and Chingford was neither practicable nor wanted by residents of either area (for the aborted review last time, the BCE proposed Edmonton & Chingford but withdrew it from their to-be-finalised 2013 plans over strong objections from residents, as well as a lack of usable links between those areas), I would be able to leave the Hackney and Tower Hamlets constituencies alone, and link the 'North Woolwich' area of Newham with Barking. In the absence of a viable cross-Lea constituency, there will have to be changes to every constituency in this area, althoug...

Within the 2018 review, the constituencies of the capital, London, will be some of the most awkward to arrange properly, and this is the easiest region to botch when creating new constituencies. Some of the problems stem from the natural barriers that exist within London, which cannot feasibly be crossed by any constituency even though mathematically it would make creating constituencies easier, especially without split wards. There are two important barriers in North London, for example, which are the River Lea (the western boundary of Essex, in effect), a natural barrier, and the A5 dividing Harrow and Barnet. Although you can actually walk from Harrow to Barnet and back (meanwhile, there are only two roads crossing the Lea from Enfield to Waltham Forest, and the River Lea is a clearer dividing line) there are no trains going directly from any part of Barnet to Harrow and only a few bus routes connecting that area, so I think it is best if Barnet and Harrow are kept sepa...

Readers, the results of by-elections from this week featuring Green Party candidates were as follows: Cumbria CC, Windermere: Liberal Democrats 1009 (52.3%, -9.7%), Conservatives 785 (40.7%, +22.0%), Labour 88 (4.6%), Green 46 (2.4%). Lancaster BC, Westgate: Lab 443 (41.6%, +10.1%), Morecambe Bay Independents 193 (18.1%, +0.2%), UKIP 183 (17.2%, -7.9%), Con 178 (16.7%, -8.7%), Lib Dem 41 (3.9%), Green 26 (2.4%). Lewisham LBC, Brockley: Lab 1190 (48.0%, +10.6%), Green 631 (25.4%, -1.7%), Lib Dem 259 (10.4%, +6.2%), Con 195 (7.9%, +0.2%), Women's Equality Party 173 (7.0%), UKIP 33 (1.3%, -4.1%). Lewisham LBC, Evelyn: Lab 1028 (53.4%, -1.9%), People Before Profit 314 (16,3%, -3.2%), Con 183 (9.5%), Independent 173 (9.0%), Green 119 (6.2%, -6.2%), Lib Dem 107 (5.6%, -2.1%). Poole UA, Broadstone: Lib Dem 2184 (69.3%, +28.2%), Con 733 (23.3%, -15.4%), UKIP 132 (4.2%, -9.2%), Green 57 (1.8%, -5.0%), Lab 45 (1.4%). South Lakeland DC, Windermere Bowness North: Lib Dem 441 (60.1%...

Technically, as long as Rutland stays paired with Leicestershire, it should be possible to avoid a cross-county Leicestershire-Nottinghamshire constituency. However, I do not believe this is possible in practice for two reasons: 1. Awkward ward sizes, especially in the east of Nottinghamshire around Newark-on-Trent. Adding the best fit non-Mansfield ward would put the constituency of Mansfield's electorate in excess of the quota limit, for example. 2. Space-there is not enough room in the west of Nottinghamshire, particularly the 'Greater Nottingham' area, to create sensible constituencies with more electors than average but which would still be in quota. And clearly, the only crossing such a cross-county constituency can be really placed is between Loughborough and the western parts of the Rushcliffe district. Nevertheless, it is possible to improve substantially on the Boundary Commission's initial proposals, for both Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire. Many s...

Northamptonshire, which like much of the East Midlands has been a key battleground between the Conservative and Labour Parties for decades (Northampton North has been a bellwether constituency since it was created for the February 1974 general election), is a shining example of the disparity between current constituency sizes. Each Northampton constituency only has just over 57,000 electors (57032 and 57389 for North and South), whilst South Northamptonshire has 84,427 electors, nearly 1 1/2 times as many. With Northamptonshire only being entitled to 6.60 constituencies under the 2018 review, it must have a cross-county constituency somewhere-but where? I personally disagree that it needs to be with Leicestershire. This is because even though there are good road links between the towns of Daventry and Lutterworth, it would cause serious problems for other constituencies in Leicestershire, most of which represent properly connected areas. Due to the awkward rural ward sizes in the maj...

Lithuania recently held its 2016 Parliamentary elections, and they were a real turnaround politically. Lithuania, like Germany and Hungary, uses Mixed Member Proportional representation, with an almost equal division of single member constituency seats (71) and list seats (70). A lot of the Lithuanian SMCs, especially in the capital of Vilnius, had to be redrawn or broken up because of major disparities in constituency size back in 2012; the Lithuanian Constitutional Court (their Supreme Court) ruled that each constituency's population must not vary more than 10% from the average (relatively tight given Lithuania's small population, but certainly much fairer than a 5% variance limit). However, unless one candidate receives at least 50% of the votes initially in an SMC, there has to be a second round of voting with the top two candidates in the poll. This year in Lithuania, only three candidates have been elected in the first round; the other 68 SMCs will go to a second round...

The Boundary Commission's initial proposals for Derbyshire are quite botched, which is why I come to this county next in the East Midlands section of my alternative constituency proposals for the 2018 review. Their 'Derby South' is really Derby East and the city of Derby should generally be kept in a North/South split, even if for electoral quota purposes it has to donate wards to one non-Derby constituency. This is because the road links within Derby link mainly east to west rather than north to south.  Generally speaking, it is better to keep to local authority boundaries especially if the seat entitlement of a county or city decreases, and this holds true for Derbyshire (although the district of North East Derbyshire does not have particularly good transport connections). Therefore, instead of abolishing North East Derbyshire, that constituency should instead cover the entire district of North East Derbyshire and donate its non-NE Derbyshire wards to other constituen...

I now move on to the East Midlands section of my series of alternative constituency proposals to those the Boundary Commission has proposed. Lincolnshire is overall the least changed of the East Midlands counties so I will start there. I will also include North Lincolnshire, which is technically in the Yorkshire & The Humber region but should not be, for the purposes of reuniting Lincolnshire. Because this is a key battleground area between the Conservative and Labour parties, and has been for decades, changes in this region are where alterations of constituencies will start to have a more significant effect. Due to the quota limits, restoring the pre-1983 constituency of Rutland & Stamford (more on the county of Rutland later in this series) is not possible without violating the 5% deviance limit. Lincolnshire is entitled to almost exactly 7 constituencies under the rules of the 2018 review, and Rutland is entitled to 3/8 of a constituency in terms of electorate number...

Readers, the results from this week's local by-elections were as follows: Basingstoke & Deane BC, Basing: Conservative 1051 (67.5%, +3.7%), Liberal Democrats 323 (20.7%, +8.3%), Labour 184 (11.8%, -0.1%). All changes are since May 2016. Bolton MBC, Rumworth:  Lab 2215 (76.9%, +4.6%), UKIP 251 (9.1%, -0.9%), Con 167 (6.0%, -4.4%), Green 126 (4.6%, -0.5%), Lib Dem 96 (3.5%, +1.2%). All changes are since May 2016. Caerphilly UA, Gilfach: Lab 254 (57.9%, -28.0%), Plaid Cymru 150 (34.2%, +20.0%), UKIP 28 (6.4%), Green 7 (1.6%). Caerphilly UA, Risca East: Lab 400 (58.9%, +2.9%), Plaid Cymru 120 (17.7%, +0.4%), UKIP 117 (17.2%), Lib Dem 42 (6.2%). East Devon, Exmouth Brixington: Con 425 (41.1%, +5.5%), East Devon Independent Alliance 324 (31.3%, +2.5%), Lib Dem 286 (27.8%,+8.4%) Glasgow UA, Garscadden/Scotstounhill (1st preferences):  SNP 2135 (42.6%, +15.6%), Lab 1944 (38.8%, -22.8%), Con 510 (10.2%, +7.6%), Green 242 (4.8%, +2.1%), Lib Dem 97 (1.9%, +0.8%), UKIP 83 ...