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Showing posts from September, 2016

My analysis of by-elections from 29/9/16

Readers, the results of this week's local by-elections which featured Green candidates were as follows: Dacorum BC, Adeyfield West: Liberal Democrats 520 (49.5%, +26.5%), Conservative 233 (22.2%, -6.4%), Labour 166 (15.8%, -6.5%), UKIP 115 (10.9%, -15.2%), Green 17 (1.6%) North Norfolk, Glaven Valley: Lib Dem 429 (55.2%, +8.5%), Con 281 (36,2%, +3.7%), UKIP 32 (4.1%, -6.8%), Lab 23 (3.0%, -2.8%), Green 12 (1.4%, -2.5%). Derby UA, Allestree:  Con 2006 (54.6%, -6.1%), Lib Dem 1053 (28.7%, +17.2%), Lab 409 (11.1%, -5.8%), Green 115 (3.1%), UKIP 91 (2.5%, -8.5%). The poor Labour result in Adeyfield, where until recently they had consistent representation, is not actually that surprising-Labour is in long-term decline in the Dacorum area. They have only 1 remaining councillor in Dacorum, a council where they won overall control in 1973 and in the late 1990s, their vote share declined almost everywhere in Dacorum in the 2015 elections, which culminated wi...

The 2018 review: which Conservative MPs could be ousted due to the 2018 Review's boundary changes?

With regards to the 2018 review of parliamentary constituencies, there has been a high amount of media focus of selection battles of Labour MPs that will result from abolition of or changes to existing constituencies. It can already be predicted for example that the safe Labour seats of Lewisham Deptford, Birmingham Hall Green (really Birmingham Hall Green & Sparkbrook), Bradford South, Islwyn, Newport East, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Workington and Wansbeck will almost certainly be abolished by being divided up among other constituencies; others will be changed substantially such that they are notionally Conservative, such as Barrow-on-Furness and Southampton Test. However, some Conservative MPs will also have to face their own selection and election battles amidst the whole process just as other MPs will, and here are they: Priti Patel (Witham): There is little if any chance of Priti's constituency being saved, given that its Maldon and Colchester wards need t...

My analysis of this week's by-elections and why ward-splitting is necessary in the 2018 Boundary Review

Readers, the results of this week's local by-elections featuring Green Party candidates are as follows: (20/9/16): Cardiff UA, Plasnewydd: Liberal Democrats 1258 (48.1%, +14.4%), Labour 910 (34.8%, -2.5%), Plaid Cymru 177 (6.8%, -3.6%), Conservative 115 (4.4%, -0.5%), Green 93 (3.6%, -10.2%), UKIP 62 (2.4%). (22/9/16): Cherwell DC, Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote: Con 1015 (57.4%, +7.0%), Lab 286 (16.2%, +0%), Green 278 (15.5%, -3.7%), Lib Dem 189 (10.7%, -3.3%). Gateshead MBC, Chopwell & Rowlands Gill: Lab 1066 (59.1%, -3.7%), UKIP 282 (15.6%, +1.3%), Lib Dem 221 (12.3%, +7.9%), Con 156 (8.6%, -2.3%), Green 79 (4.4%, -3.2%). North Lanarkshire UA, Coatbridge North & Glenboig (1st preference votes): Lab 1350 (41.7%, -11.3%), SNP 1261 (39.0%, +8.2%), Con 366 (11.3%, +5.3%), Green 195 (6.0%), UKIP 63 (1.9%). Labour gain from SNP. Suffolk CC, Hadleigh: Lib Dem 642 (36.2%, +12.8%), Con 460 (25.9%, -5.6%), Lab 397 (22.4%, +5.8%), UKIP 204 (11.5%, -11.3%), Green 70...

My analysis of recent international elections of September 2016

Whilst I have been busy, the German states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (home to Chancellor Angela Merkel, who represents the northern half of the state in the Bundestag) and Berlin, the federal capital, held their 2016 landtag elections; the nation of Croatia held its parliamentary election just ten months on from the previous one, caused by a vote of no confidence in Tihomir Oreskovic and his cabinet; and there was the 2016 election for Russia's State Duma (parliament). As expected from this Croatian election, turnout decreased significantly, from nearly 61% to just over 54%; just because a nation has fair proportional representation does not mean that turnout will be particularly high. It nevertheless saw substantial change, with the moderately conservative Croatian Democratic Union alliance gaining 3 extra seats with the SDP-led People's Coalition losing two from 2015, giving HDZ and its leader Andrej Plenkovic a critical lead. However, the kingmakers from last year, the li...

My analysis of by-elections from 15/9/16 and why it was a bad decision to approve Hinkley Point

Readers, the results of this week's local by-elections featuring Green Party candidates were as follows: Carlisle CC, Castle: Labour 398 (46.5%, -3.3%), Conservative 228 (26.7%, +3.0%), UKIP 107 (12.5%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 88 (10.3%, +2.1%), Green 34 (4.0%, -0.8%). All changes are since this May. East Hertfordshire DC, Puckeridge: Con  179 (42.6%, -24.6%), UKIP 79 (18.9%), Lib Dem 75 (18.0%), Lab 46 (11.0%, -8.9%), Green 38 (9.1%, -3.5%) Newcastle-upon-Tyne MBC, Blakelaw:  Lab 1004 (43.2%, -20.0%), Lib Dem 654 (28.1%, +19.0%), UKIP 443 (19.1%, +3.0%), Con 119 (5.1%, -2.4%), Green 105 (4.5%, +0.5%) Shropshire UA, Bishop's Castle: Lib Dem 862 (60.5%, -1.5%), Con 430 (30.2%, -0.5%), Lab 95 (6.7%), Green 37 (2.6%, -4.7%) I personally find the result of the Puckeridge by-election most disappointing, since my good friend Tabitha had actually worked on her campaign (which I came to help) when other opposing candidates did not. The intervention of UKIP and th...

The Boundary Commission's initial proposals-and what is wrong with them

Readers, the Boundary Commissions for England and for Wales have just released their initial proposals for the 600 new constituencies they need to create under the Parliamentary Constituencies and Voting Reforms Act 2011, which also mandates that these constituencies' electorates must be within 5% of the electoral quota, based on the December 2015 electoral register. Their initial proposals can be found here: www.bce2018.org.uk and www.bcw2018.org.uk In their quest for minimum change, they have come up with many incongruous, unstable, and generally terrible new proposals. In my home county of Hertfordshire, they are proposing to link villages like Bassingbourn ( which are in Cambridgeshire !) to North East Hertfordshire, and to connect Welwyn Hatfield with Hertford villages even though those have far better connections to Hertford. They are also trying to continue with the Basildon (North) & Billericay constituency (which in my opinion deserves to be abolished) to the det...

My analysis of by-elections from 25/8/16 to 8/9/16

The results of the few by-elections from the last three weeks that featured Green Party candidates were as follows: 25/8/16: Fife UA, The Lochs: Labour 1318 (47.1%, +0.7%), SNP 1079 (38.6%, +19.6%), Con 270 (9.6%, +6.9%), Communist 86 (3.1%), Green 45 (1.6%). Labour elected at stage 2; Labour gain from Independent Communist. 1/9/16: Bournemouth UA, Kinson North: Con 556 (34.7%, +2.3%), Lab 517 (32.2%, +12.9%), UKIP 313 (19.5%, -8.8%), Liberal Democrats 116 (7.2%, -2.2%), Green 102 (6.4%, -4.2%) 8/9/16: Sheffield MBC, Mosborough: Lib Dem 1711 (45.6%, +31.8%), Lab 1279 (34.1%, -9.2%), UKIP 466 (12.4%, -9.8%), Con 229 (6.1%, -7.9%), Green 67 (1.9%, -1.8%) Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. With that by-election in Fife, the last piece of Communist representation in Britain disappears; the former councillor, elected in 1973, was the last remaining Communist councillor in Britain anywhere from 1991 onwards, when the original Communist Party of Great Britain disbanded. However,...

My thoughts on the Autumn 2016 Green Party conference

This weekend, Green Party conference occurred at Birmingham for the second time since 2013 when I first attended Green Party conference, albeit in Edgbaston rather than Aston. I had learned that I failed to be elected as Deputy Leader of the Green Party; Amelia Womack won re-election easily, with Andrew Cooper finishing a strong second and incumbent Shahrar Ali finishing only third. The strong outside contender who finished fourth proved to be Kat Boettge, who was going to be the Green Party's lead candidate for the East Midlands region until Britain voted to exit the EU. As for Green Party leader, the election proved to be a foregone conclusion, with Caroline Lucas MP and Jonathan Bartley, our Work & Pensions Spokesperson, jointly winning with 87.7% of the 1st preference votes (if RON's votes are not included) and a majority of 12,614 votes; hundreds of MPs in Britain have majorities less than that and they have to convince sometimes as many as 80,000 voters, not the 43,...