tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85604102653371730602024-03-13T20:09:23.257+00:00Alan's Green ThoughtsUpdates on democracy, analyses of elections and other thoughts.Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.comBlogger960125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-76118565135478579282023-06-02T14:15:00.000+01:002023-06-02T14:15:02.115+01:00On the Spanish regional elections of 2023-a warning for progressives<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Spanish regional elections of 2023, especially those in the "Empty Spain" regions far west of the federal capital of Madrid and prosperous yet famously rebellious Catalonia, resulted in a sharp shift towards conservatism and conservative populism.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Both Partido Popular (PP, Spain's equivalent of the Conservatives) and Vox (the Spanish equivalent of Reform UK/UKIP) made sweeping gains in all regions, notably taking overall control in Madrid (normally an impossible feat under Spain's PR system), more than doubling their seat total in Valencia to top the poll there, and wresting control of Asturias, La Rioja, and Cantabria from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE, Spain's equivalent of Labour) and the Cantabrian Regionalist Party respectively. Under the tenure of Pedro Sanchez, the current PSOE-Podemos coalition is floundering and has not done much to ensure Spain's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic since the last restrictions ended in 2021, and Podemos is paying the price for abandoning its hard-left principles, not to mention that Ione Belarra is not as charismatic or as radical as Podemos' former leader, Pablo Iglesias.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PSOE lost largest party status in many regions but only lost a small number of seats in many cases. It was in fact Podemos who paid the heavier price, losing all its seats in the Corts (regional parliament) of the Canary Islands, Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha, Madrid, and Valencia and only holding onto 1 seat in Aragon; that said, the older Spanish hardline socialist party, United Left, did not benefit from this. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Vox, notable for its ultranationalism and paleoconservative views, managed to gain representation in all regional Corts where it had not previously been represented, and undoubtedly a backlash against stronger regional rights stemming from incidents involving Catalonia's push for independence last decade from Spain's poorer provinces was a key factor in this, although Vox performed relatively poorly in provinces with more Basque speakers (they only polled 4.3% in Navarre, less than half the vote share they polled elsewhere).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The collapse of the centrist Citizens (Ciududanos) party across Spain was not unexpected, given that their collapse in Madrid in 2021 reverbrated across Spain and caused major internal splits, in a manner similar to the collapse of the centrist Progressive and Democratic Union last decade. Given that there are already many moderate regionalist parties, and that much of the nationalist, anti-federalist vote is on the right in Spain and not on the left, it is clear that there is no room in Spain for a long-standing centrist nationalist party, and indeed the Citizens Party have announced they will not contest the 2023 Spanish general election next month even though they currently have 10 MPs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The "Empty Spain" movement did not perform as well as expected, even though the "Empty Spain" problem has been increasing in severity in the post-pandemic period, with "working from home" not pushing people to move to the Spanish countryside as has been happening in the United Kingdom. Only in Aragon, courtesy of the provincial Teruel Existe (Teruel Exists) movement did they win any seats; in the other provincial elections they did not come close to gaining representation, rather a Catch-22 for the movement.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">With the shadow of Mariano Rajoy's repression and corruption no longer hanging over PP, Pedro Sanchez's coalition is on borrowed time and is likely to lose said Spanish general election, although the possibility of a PP-Vox coalition in Spain will undoubtedly push many conservative voters in Spain to support palatable regionalist parties such as the Navarrese People's Union (UPN) even if they are not pro-federalist.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-15359678474603896132023-05-21T22:12:00.004+01:002023-05-21T22:16:12.425+01:00The Northern Irish local elections of 2023-pushing further towards polarisation<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Irish local elections of 2023 continued and sharpened trends seen in the 2019 Northern Irish local elections, 2019 general election (allowing for pacts that took place), and the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election in many respects.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Sinn Fein (SF) topped the poll for the first time in Northern Ireland's local elections, winning a total of 144 seats, an increase of 39 from 2019. Under Mary Lou McDonald's/Michelle O'Neill's leadership, Sinn Fein has flourished on both sides of the border, and nationalist votes have been coalescing primarily around them; furthermore, the nationalist-inclined population of Northern Ireland is increasing faster than that of the unionist-inclined population. Notable highlights for SF include taking overall control of Fermanagh & Omagh council and topping the poll in Derry & Strabane and Armagh City, Bainbridge & Craigavon for the very first time; normally due to STV with DEAs usually containing 5 or 6 seats apiece and the fact unionist and nationalist voters almost never allow their votes to transfer from one side to the other at all, any party gaining overall control of a Northern Irish council is not a possibility. Although the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) kept their seat total level at 122, they slipped to second place, repeating the historic blows to the unionists that occurred at the 2019 general election, where for the first time the number of nationalist MPs exceeded the number of unionist MPs in Northern Ireland, and despite the unionist vote coalescing around them more and more their vote share decreased by 0.8%. Arguably, breakdowns in power-sharing and Brexit-related woes, leaving the Assembly still nonfunctional, has cost the DUP dearly (NB: councils' powers are more limited in Northern Ireland than in England due to the responsibilities of the Northern Ireland Assembly); the DUP is refusing to power-share largely in protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">As expected, the nonsectarian Alliance Party reasserted themselves as Northern Ireland's third party, but they had a rather disappointing election. They only gained 14 seats and endured notable setbacks, including losing both seats in Derry & Strabane. The Alliance Party did not reach out much beyond its well-educated, middle-class base (similar to the Liberal Democrats' core base in Britain) which naturally due to historic and current economic disparities between unionist and nationalist voters in Northern Ireland (Belfast West, the strongest seat for the nationalists, has the highest unemployment rate in Northern Ireland, whereas North Down, the weakest seat for the nationalists and historically the strongest for the unionists, has the lowest unemployment rate in Northern Ireland) does not appeal well to nationalist-inclined voters, and increasing polarisation of Northern Irish politics at all levels is proving a double-edged sword for the Alliance. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The more moderate and traditional unionist and nationalist parties, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Social & Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) continued their inexorable decline and are ceasing to become relevant as significant political forces in Northern Ireland. In the former case, they have been supplanted by the DUP in rural areas and the Alliance in metropolitan/suburban areas, and with "no religion" growing at a fast rate in Northern Ireland old religious and demographic ties are breaking down slowly but surely in Northern Ireland. The SDLP, meanwhile, is struggling to find any place in the Northern Irish landscape due to SF becoming more mainstream and having no other reliable base to fall back on due to industrial decline around Belfast in particular (the SDLP was formed not only from nationalist groups, but also nonsectarian labour organisations); even their historical bases (e.g. in Derry) are eroding significantly.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Their fate was better than that of smaller parties in Northern Ireland, who suffered a heavy squeeze due to the aforementioned polarisation. The Popular Unionist Party (PUP) lost both seats in Belfast, not even retaining their support in the working-class areas around Shankill, and only their sole councillor in Causeway Coast & Glens, Russell Watton, held his seat; the PUP has suffered a worse decline even than the UUP and could very well dissolve by the end of this decade. The Marxist People Before Profit movement took another hit, partly due to nationalist voters not having forgiven it for supporting Brexit, whose consequences are hurting Northern Ireland just as much as in the UK, even though the cost-of-living crisis should have endeared more voters to vote for them especially since they have been strongest in the poorest parts of Belfast e.g. Black Mountain (the site of a rare SDLP gain in fact), and the retirement of long-standing activist Eamonn McCann from the Northern Irish political scene has not helped them either. Even though spectacular Green gains in Britain should have encouraged a similar surge in Northern Ireland, the Green Party of Northern Ireland actually lost 2 seats, including that of their leader, Malachi O'Hara, in Belfast; like with last year's Assembly election they are losing ground to the Alliance Party which is moving in on environmental issues faster than either the unionists or the nationalists. Aontu, a minor pro-life and nationalist party, lost their only council seat in Northern Ireland, and significantly they performed poorly elsewhere in Derry & Strabane, one of the last holdouts of the socially conservative nationalist vote that proved valuable to the SDLP (SF's voter base is considerably more socially liberal). Only the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) amongst smaller parties gained any seats, and again this was due to annoyance at the DUP's intransigence more than anything else; their extreme positions even by unionist standards mean many voters will not preference them at all. Independents did not fare much better either, with most of the Independent gains stemming from councillors who had deserted their former parties.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Overall, all parties in Northern Ireland, especially smaller parties, need to think about their future and purpose, since this new political environment in Northern Ireland is here to stay for the foreseeable future and the Assembly needs to become functional soon.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-86737935445165769922023-05-05T22:33:00.001+01:002023-05-06T10:14:11.849+01:00The English local elections of 2023-Conservatives pay the penalty for failing to put a stop to sleaze and sewage in our rivers<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The English local elections of 2023 (Northern Ireland's elections will finish next week and a separate blog post will be devoted to these) not only resulted in more than 1000 Conservative losses just as Rallings & Thrasher and Sir John Curtice predicted, they also resulted in sweeping Green and Liberal Democrat gains across the nation-sending a hard message to the Conservatives about the need to protect our environment and Labour for barely acting like an opposition at all.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Conservatives in total made a net loss of 1,061 seats, with the vast majority being in the shire districts where they once dominated-even councils such as Bracknell Forest and Surrey Heath, which they held in 1995 and 2019, fell, to Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively in those two cases. Who they lost to varied widely by the nature of the authority-their losses to Labour came mainly in (ex) industrial "Red Wall" areas where they had made against-the-trend gains in 2019 or fared better than most, their losses to the Liberal Democrats came mainly in the shires south of the line spanning the Wash to the Bristol Channel (i.e. southern England and London) and the wealthier, better-educated parts of commuter towns and satellite villages (e.g. in North Hertfordshire and South Gloucestershire) and their losses to the Greens primarily came in rural districts where environmental, planning and/or transport concerns were a key issue, especially in districts on or not far from the coast. The Conservatives managed to lose as many as 50 councils, and in many councils they dropped from largest party status to third or even fourth in the poll, and were notably wiped out in Lewes where they had been the largest party in 2019, and also the affluent suburbs of Stockport. Amazingly, the Conservatives managed to gain two councils, both due to heavy losses by Independents and localist groups: Torbay in Devon and Wyre Forest in Worcestershire, where the Independent Community Health Concern group (a party based around Dr Richard Taylor's campaign of preserving services at Kidderminster Hospital) had wound up recently. This further affirms that the Conservatives will lose next year's general election, and royal events this year will make no significant difference to this.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Labour were on a roll, regaining many council areas which I previously believed that due to demographic change, permanent changes in working patterns, and a shift in the Labour vote towards the educated middle class away from the working class, they would never recover in a post-Brexit environment, including North East Derbyshire and Stoke-on-Trent which they both gained spectacularly. They also for the first time in 21 years are now the largest party in local government across England overall. Demographic change also accounted for their historic gain in Bracknell Forest, a prime commuter hotspot even with remote working and hybrid working becoming the norm in many professions, and their capture of Thanet which in the absence of affordable housing in such areas as Brighton & Hove and Bristol is becoming a new mildly bohemian haven, as is Leigh-on-Sea in Southend-on-Sea although Leigh-on-Sea (not to be confused with the Leigh in the metropolitan borough of Wigan) has always had a notable small "l" liberal bent. Their recovery of many "Red Wall" areas, as well as gaining control or largest party status in areas that contain key bellwether seats such as Derby, Milton Keynes and Southampton, is down to not only dissatisfaction with the Conservatives over the cost-of-living crisis and the legacy of the numerous scandals that occurred under Boris Johnson's tenure as Prime Minister, but also more moderate Labour voters dissuaded by Jeremy Corbyn returning to their natural fold, if such a thing exists in British politics anymore. One key exception to Labour's sweeping gains was Leicester, where due to a belief that the Hindu community's wishes were being neglected by the dominant Labour council (as also seen in Leicester East in the 2019 general elections where the Conservatives selected a Hindu candidate but Labour did not) the Conservatives gained as many as 17 seats from Labour and came a reasonably close second to Sir Peter Soulsby in the mayoral election that took place simultaneously.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Liberal Democrats once again proved adept at sweeping the southern shires as happened in 2021 and 2022, routing the Conservatives across Oxfordshire (NB: the city of Oxford was not up for election this year as it elects by halves in even-numbered years) and Surrey in particular, and regaining their stride in Devon where with the Greens on the rise and Devon not having leaned Remain the way Oxfordshire and Surrey did a recovery was a much harder challenge. They overall gained 12 councils, including for the first time not only the aforementioned Surrey Heath but Stratford-on-Avon as well; surprisingly this did not include East Cambridgeshire where no change at all in seat terms occurred, even though overall it is undergoing the same pro-wealthy progressive intellectual demographic trends as South Cambridgeshire (if not to the same extent) where the Liberal Democrats have a secure majority, nor did it include Tewkesbury which is becoming fashionable with many affluent progressives priced out of the Cotswolds and Cheltenham although they did emerge as the largest party there and will undoubtedly obtain the council leadership. Bedford proved to be a notable exception where they lost largest party status and also the mayoralty (see below).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It was the Greens, however, who proved to be the stars of the show even though their overall gains, at 240, were just under 60% of the gains made by the Liberal Democrats (416). They most of all benefitted from voters' disgust at the Conservatives' disregard for environmentalism, not just in terms of MPs voting to allow raw sewage to be dumped in rivers but also due to environmental legislation being under threat from sweeping legislation that will scrap current EU-inherited laws unless they are specifically exempted by ministers. They gained overall control of their first ever council, Mid Suffolk, and became the largest party in Babergh (also in Suffolk), East Suffolk, Forest of Dean, Lewes, Folkestone & Hythe, Warwick, and even East Hertfordshire where I grew up; most of these councils contain Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, Sites of Special Scientific Interest, and/or are on the coast, and thus will bear the brunt of environmental catastrophes hardest in comparison to urban and suburban authorities. In many cases they unseated the leaders of Conservative groups. However, in metropolitan areas, the Greens either made limited progress (e.g. in Sheffield where they emerged with 14 seats, the same as last year) or suffered a sharp reversal of fortune, notably Brighton & Hove where they lost 13 seats, including those of their group leader and deputy leader, and only just avoided slipping to third place in seat terms.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Independents and localist groups had one of their worst elections in recent memory, with only the localist associations' hold of Ashfield, Epsom & Ewell, and Uttlesford being bright spots, and even then two of those groups lost seats. The City Independents, who had helped the Conservatives gain control of Stoke-on-Trent in 2015, almost completely collapsed with them being reduced to a solitary seat, and Independents were lucky to hold on to largest party/group status in East Devon. Only where they were the only significant opposition to the Conservatives did they manage to make gains e.g. in Boston, although Boston has previous history of electing localists such as when the Boston Bypass Independents held that council from 2007 to 2011. Only in Derby did Reform UK, which fielded small numbers of candidates and thus had few chances to start with, make any real impact and then this was mainly due to the personal votes of their councillors there; their efforts in Bolton came to nothing. The continuity Liberal Party only held the few seats they had in Liverpool and the Yorkshire Party only made gains in the East Riding of Yorkshire, although in the latter case this was due to many Yorkshire councils not being up for election this year. UKIP lost all their remaining councillors and most of their seats were not even being defended by UKIP, and nor for the most part did Reform UK step in to take their place. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">As for the 4 mayoral elections that took place simultaneously, the replacement of supplementary vote (a cross between the French two round system and AV) with first past the post produced, as feared, wins only by Conservative and Labour candidates; long-serving Bedford mayor Dave Hodgson lost by only 145 votes but would likely have been re-elected under SV, as would Andy Preston in Middlesbrough who narrowly lost to Labour. It also had a chilling effect on the Mansfield Independents, who, having only lost the mayoralty there by 2 votes in 2019, finished third this year. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">With so many councils being under no overall control and likely to remain so for the time being, British political parties will need to get used to cooperation and coalitions in local government, and it has been shown that they can work well in Britain after all, meaning that only those politicians unwilling to share power fairly or who want to hold seats without having to do any real work have anything to fear from the introduction of proportional representation at a local and parliamentary level in some form, even though when that happens it will be most likely AMS (as used in the London Assembly, the Scottish Parliament, and the Senedd) not full list-PR.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-10641610282113969402023-04-05T22:04:00.003+01:002023-04-05T23:40:49.688+01:00Election predictions for 2023<p><span style="font-family: arial;">First of all, my sincere apologies for the hiatus. I have just been taking a break from blogging for a while.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If the 2019 elections were dreadful for the Conservatives-they were their worst since 1995, in fact-the 2023 elections will be abysmal. Even in traditional heartlands Conservative candidatures-let alone the number of seats that will elect Conservative councillors, even accounting for boundary changes that have usually reduced the numbers of seats on said council-have decreased, a key example being Suffolk. Whilst Labour has regained considerable trust amongst the public under Sir Keir Starmer's leadership since the "Partygate" scandal that led to Boris Johnson's downfall, Labour's complacency on many councils means that they will be by no means home and dry come election day, and already there are signs that Labour's strong poll lead over the Conservatives may not last until the next general election, which is likely to be in autumn 2024.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Although the number of signatures required for candidate nomination has now permanently been reduced from 10 to 2 (initially this was a temporary measure during the COVID-19 pandemic) this has not always resulted in a greater number of candidatures from political parties and independents-sometimes, far from it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">At the same time, Liberal Democrat and Green candidacies have been increasing overall, often fielding full slates even in councils holding full council elections; conversely, Reform UK has not even come close to the candidate numbers UKIP once fielded, with their candidate numbers not even being double that of the hard left Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC). In fact, counting parties to the right of the Conservatives, their combined candidatures do not even match the totals fielded by various localist associations (e.g. Residents for Uttlesford).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">With this in mind, which councils, amongst those with a realistic chance of changing hands, will change hands this year? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Here are my current predictions:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Labour gain from Conservative: </b>Swindon, Erewash.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Labour hold: </b>High Peak, Chesterfield, Calderdale, Southampton, Sunderland, Bury.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Labour gain from NOC (no overall control): </b>Cheshire West & Chester, Plymouth, Wirral, South Derbyshire, South Ribble, Crawley.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative: </b>Stratford-on-Avon, East Cambridgeshire, Dacorum, West Berkshire.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Liberal Democrat hold: </b>Woking, North Norfolk, North Devon, Gosport.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Green gain from Conservative: </b>Mid Suffolk.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Conservative lose to NOC: </b>Welwyn Hatfield, Tewkesbury, Pendle, Maidstone, Derbyshire Dales, Cannock Chase, Blaby, Amber Valley, South Gloucestershire, Basildon, West Lindsey, West Devon, Rugby, King's Lynn & West Norfolk, South Hams.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Conservative hold: </b>Great Yarmouth<b>, </b>East Staffordshire, Bromsgrove, East Riding of Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire, Solihull, Walsall, East Suffolk, West Suffolk, Wealden, Wychavon, North West Leicestershire, North East Derbyshire, Newark & Sherwood.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Other holds: </b>Epsom & Ewell RA hold Epsom & Ewell, Residents for Uttlesford hold Uttlesford, Ashfield Independents hold Ashfield.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>NOC hold</b>: Brighton & Hove, Bolton, Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole, Peterborough, Rutland, Stoke-on-Trent, Stockport, Warwick, Worcester, Tendring, Thanet, Broxtowe, Burnley, Canterbury, Boston, Mansfield, East Devon, Mid Devon, Torridge, Hastings.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-67465748752179935392022-10-05T20:33:00.000+01:002022-10-05T20:33:07.535+01:00My analysis of local by-elections from the last half of September 2022<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last two weeks of September 2022 were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(22/9/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Coventry MBC, Sherbourne</b>: Conservative 1,409 (51.2%, +12.2%), Labour 895 (32.5%, -7.4%), Green 139 (5.0%, -4.2%), TUSC 125 (4.5%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 94 (3.4%, -1.4%), Coventry Citizens 92 (3.3%, +0.6%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since May.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Gwynedd UA, Llanuwychllyn</b>: Plaid Cymru 368 (95.8%), Liberal Democrats 16 (4.2%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Stoke-on-Trent UA, Bentilee & Ubberley</b>: Labour 469 (62.8%, +28.6%), City Independent 143 (19.1%, -1.1%), Conservative 138 (18.4%, +10.7%). [UKIP and For Britain did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Wealden DC, Maresfield</b>: Green 651 (61.2%, +30.3%), Conservative 411 (38.8%, -23.3%). Green gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(29/9/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Argyll & Bute UA, Kintyre & The Islands (1st preferences)</b>: Independent (Redman) 591 (32.7%, +16.3%), SNP 525 (29.1%, -0.8%), Liberal Democrats 265 (14.7%, -1.7%), Conservative 194 (10.7%, +1.2%), Green 176 (9.7%), Labour 55 (3.0%, -1.2%). Independent gain from another Independent.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Harborough DC, Market Harborough-Logan</b>: Liberal Democrats 582 (45.7%, +12.5%), Conservative 382 (30.0%, +2.3%), Labour 250 (19.6%, +10.3%), Independent (Lambert) 60 (4.7%, -6.7%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Newark & Sherwood DC, Edwinstowe & Clipstone</b>: Labour 804 (59.8%, +10.2%), Conservative 540 (40.2%, -10.2%). Labour gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Oxford BC, Hinksey Park</b>: Labour 801 (51.3%, -4.7%), Green 305 (19.5%, +7.0%), Independent (Woodin) 270 (17.3%, +1.4%), Liberal Democrats 118 (7.6%, -1.9%), Conservative 60 (3.8%, -2.4%), TUSC 8 (0.5%). All changes are since 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Ynysbywl</b>: Plaid Cymru 435 (59.0%, +6.8%), Labour 246 (33.4%, +0.4%), Conservative 34 (4.6%, -1.4%), Gwlad 14 (1.9%, -6.9%), Green 8 (1.1%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Rossendale DC, Facit & Shawforth</b>: Conservative 337 (42.5%, -11.6%), Independent (Olaolu) 214 (27.6%), Labour 203 (26.2%, -18.6%), Green 20 (2.6%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Rossendale DC, Helmshore</b>: Conservative 736 (50.6%, +4.2%), Labour 540 (37.1%, +0.5%), Green 74 (5.1%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 62 (4.3%), Independent (Stansfield) 42 (2.9%, -2.4%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Warrington UA, Grappenhall</b>: Liberal Democrats 1,073/1,047 (56.4%, +8.5%), Conservative 524/462 (26.2%, -8.2%), Labour 193 (10.3%, +0.1%), Green 135 (7.2%, +0.4%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The most critical by-election of this list was in Edwinstowe & Clipstone, where Labour achieved a 10.2% swing in their favour in one of the most competitive wards in the country, and whose demographics now resemble those of "Red Wall" constituencies. Just before those by-elections, Labour recorded a 33-point lead over the Conservatives in a YouGov poll (which was almost matched in a subsequent Redfield & Wilton poll), and if the statistics were repeated in a general election the Conservatives would be lucky to clinch a distant second place in seat terms. Critically, the Conservatives lost another seat in Wealden to the Green Party, who are making strong inroads locally into rural Conservative areas in the south, and not just in Suffolk either. However, a week later, a split in the Green vote by Independent candidate Deborah Glass Woodin (widow of former Green Party Principal Speaker Mike Woodin, and who herself was a Green Party county councillor in Isis, Oxford from 2005 to 2009), thwarted hopes of breaking through into Hinksey Park, a safe Labour ward which nevertheless has a strong Green vote.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If you are wondering why the Conservatives' by-election performance does not quite reflect this, this is due to local circumstances prevailing in their gain of Sherbourne and their holds in Rossendale (a town councillor in Facit & Shawforth split both the Conservative and Labour votes, in fact), as well as considerable numbers of postal votes (which tend to lean Conservative in practice). Labour's strong performance in Stoke is a sign they are in for a substantial comeback in Stoke, where just two years ago the Conservatives historically became the largest party in what was once regarded as an impenetrable Labour fortress via defections.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-87068173114722087752022-09-16T22:02:00.005+01:002022-09-16T22:02:58.091+01:00My analysis of British local by-elections from the first half of September 2022<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first half of September 2022 were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(1/9/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Redditch BC, Headless Cross & Oakenshaw</b>: Labour 767 (41.9%, +17.7%), Conservative 686 (37.5%, -25.4%), Liberal Democrats 274 (15.0%, +9.3%), Green 102 (5.6%, -1.6%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Worcestershire CC, Arrow Valley West</b>: Labour 1,342 (53.7%, +17.4%), Conservative 893 (35.7%, -15.5%), Green 146 (5.8%, -0.9%), Liberal Democrats 120 (4.8%, -1.0%). Labour gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(8/9/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Arun DC, Barnham</b>: Green 786 (50.9%, +19.1%), Conservative 641 (41.5%, +11.3%), Labour 116 (7.5%, -8.0%). Green gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Cannock Chase DC, Hednesford North</b>: Labour 290 (38.1%, +4.8%), Chase Community Independent 228 (30.0%, +2.6%), Conservative 208 (27.3%, -12.0%), Independent (Harborow) 35 (4.6%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Hartlepool UA, Foggy Furze</b>: Labour 443 (43.9%, +23.8%), Conservative 391 (38.8%, +6.2%), Independent (Stallard) 126 (12.5%), Liberal Democrats 49 (4.9%). Labour gain from Independent. [Other Independents, Veterans & People's Party, Reform UK, and For Britain did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Lancaster DC, Warton</b>: Green 452 (65.7%, +32.8%), Conservative 169 (24.6%, -22.7%), Labour 44 (6.4%, -13.5%), Liberal Democrats 23 (3.3%). Green gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>West Sussex CC, Felpham</b>: Independent (Wild) 803 (43.4%), Conservative 703 (39.6%, -12.8%), Labour 217 (11.7%, +3.5%), Independent (Parker) 99 (5.3%, -14.7%). Independent gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(15/9/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Bolton MBC, Runworth</b>: Conservative 1,610 (55.0%, +44.1%), Labour 1,102 (37.6%, -35.2%), Green 156 (5.3%, -2.6%), Liberal Democrats 36 (1.2%, -0.8%), Reform UK/Bolton for Change 24 (0.8%). Conservative gain from Labour. [UKIP did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Mansfield BC, Oak Tree</b>: Labour 141 (47.0%, +13.6%), Mansfield Independents 91 (30.3%, -25.8%), Conservative 45 (15.0%, +4.5%), Freedom Alliance 15 (5.0%), TUSC 8 (2.7%). Labour gain from Mansfield Independents.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Mid Sussex DC, Bolney</b>: Conservative 301 (50.6%, +1.2%), Liberal Democrats 163 (27.4%, +8.6%), Labour 66 (11.1%, +4.6%), OMRLP 30 (5%), Green 28 (4.7%, -8.8%), Independent (Mockford) 7 (1.2%). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The last two weeks' worth of by-elections were the first to declare their results during the reign of King Charles III, who acceded to the throne last week, and the first during the tenure of Liz Truss, who became Prime Minister three days before Queen Elizabeth II died. Out of respect for Her Majesty's passing, all major political parties suspended campaigning during the official mourning period (which continues until the Queen's state funeral this coming Monday), which contributed to the miserable turnouts in yesterday's by-elections.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Like most new Prime Ministers, Ms Truss received a (minor but still noticeable) polling bounce initially, although this only materialised the following week, which accounts for the Conservatives' spectacular gain of one of Bolton's safest Labour wards, and the terrible result for the Reform UK & Bolton for Change alliance, in one of the few councils in the UK where Reform UK regularly stand candidates. In her first week, the Green Party made two spectacular gains from the Conservatives, who also badly lost the other two seats they were defending that week, showing that the discontent is more with the Conservative government as a whole than with Liz Truss or any other Conservative minister, as the cost of living crisis worsens and her attempts to dampen the energy crisis immediately fall flat; energy bills will likely still double and energy giants will still see record profits.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Apart from that shock loss in Rumworth, Labour has had a strong month so far, winning two marginal, middle-of-the-road seats from the Conservatives in Redditch, and making a significant recovery in their former industrial strongholds of Hartlepool and Mansfield in by-elections there against localist Independents. Even if Sir Keir Starmer's stance will not endear Labour to those of a more socialist inclination, it is resonating in areas of a more centrist leaning and many of these areas (e.g. Milton Keynes, Northampton) still represent key electoral battlegrounds between Labour and the Conservatives.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-47275931883681606062022-09-13T11:18:00.003+01:002022-09-13T11:18:33.755+01:00My analysis of the Swedish general election of 2022<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Swedish general election of 2022 generated some surprising results, despite also averting pollsters' predictions significantly.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The last three years in particular proved to be a rough ride for the Social Democrat led governments of Stefan Lofven and Magdalena Andersson respectively. Although Sweden's laxer approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to most countries in Europe, which imposed lockdowns during much of 2020 and 2021, an approach that arguably caused more problems than it solved) proved effective, Mr Lofven's desire to lift the austerity tax (which only affected a wealthy minority, similar in nature to the wealth tax initiative of former French President Francois Hollande) and to join NATO proved contentious, with two of the Social Democrats' former coalition partners (the Swedish Greens and Swedish Left Party, who had both pulled out of confidence and supply) unsurprisingly voting against Swedish accession to NATO membership (all other parties in the Riksdag voted in favour). The Social Democrats surprisingly managed to gain 8 seats, bringing them to 108, whilst the Left Party lost 4 seats, with the Greens managing to gain 2 seats; earlier this year pollsters predicted they would be eliminated from the Riksdag by dropping below the 4% threshold; their time in coalition clearly was not rewarded although pulling out of confidence and supply helped them retain their core voters. The Centre Party, which only lent unofficial support, was the party that actually incurred the most significant losses of this election, losing 7 seats.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The most significant shock of this Swedish election was the nationalist right Sweden Democrats gaining as many 11 seats, pushing the Moderates into third place in the poll in the process, even though the Moderates themselves lost only 3 seats. Both the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, the other parties in the "blue bloc", also lost seats (3 and 4 seats respectively), although these two parties have been struggling with a long-term decline in their voter base, much like similar Scandinavian parties. For the past 8 years the Sweden Democrats have been absorbing reactionary votes in Sweden like a sponge, gaining seats for the 4th consecutive Swedish general election, and their rise in support, combined with a significant drop in turnout (from 87.1% to 81.3%, still high by any standards), is a clear sign of growing discontent amongst socially conservative voters living far from either Stockholm, Gothenburg or Malmo (~25% of the Swedish population lives in one of these three cities). Even progressive and liberal nations like Sweden are not immune to the city/town & country political divide that is firmly taking root in democratic nations around the world. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Given that a "cordon sanitaire" is still in place regarding the Sweden Democrats (with similar measures applying to similar parties like AfD in Germany), the one-seat majority of the "blue bloc" in the new Riksdag will be problematic for forming a new coalition government. It is likely that the Liberals, Greens, Left and Centre Parties will give confidence and supply to the Social Democrats to stop Jimmie Akesson becoming the next Prime Minister of Sweden, resulting in Ms Andersson continuing as Swedish PM.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-78264483260709344282022-08-31T11:08:00.001+01:002022-08-31T11:08:36.182+01:00My tribute to Mikhail Gorbachev<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the USSR, died yesterday.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Like many of his contemporaries behind the former Iron Curtain, Mr Gorbachev grew up in humble surroundings, his parents working on collective farms in rural Russia. He rose through the ranks of the CPSU (Communist Party of the Soviet Union) to reach the Politburo in 1980, just five years before he became Secretary-General (de facto leader of the USSR). He was expected to succeed Yuri Andropov upon Mr Andropov's death in 1984, but Konstantin Chernenko was selected instead. Mr Chernenko died the following year and Mikhail Gorbachev finally achieved the position he needed to implement his reform programme, under the terms glasnost ("openness") and perestroika ("restructuring").</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Ironically, in trying to modernise the USSR with those reforms, he brought about its demise. Not only were Russians increasingly tired of the whole planned economic system, but leaders in other Iron Curtain countries (especially East Germany and Romania) were unwilling to change or adapt. Janos Kadar in Hungary had started doing so earlier, but its initial success was fading fast. Democratic reforms paved the way for radical reformers like Boris Yeltsin, who succeeded Mr Gorbachev as leader of Russia after the USSR's demise, and greater (if limited) economic freedoms ultimately saw demands for an end to the centralised economic system, spurred on by revolutions across nations behind the Iron Curtain, starting with the success of Solidarity in Poland under Lech Walesa and ending with the independence of the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. During that same time period (1989-1991), African countries that had adopted socialist systems with planned economies abandoned them, and many communist parties elsewhere in the world disbanded. Also, via negotiations with Ronald Reagan and later George H. Bush, he brought about the end of the Cold War and the Warsaw Pact, paving the way for lasting peace at long last. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Ultimately, his reforms were too little, too late, and the USSR finally dissolved on 25 December 1991.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In causing the demise of the Soviet Union, Mr Gorbachev effectively brought true democracy to Russia for the first time, although not without a few hiccups to say the least. It was not to last, though-Mr Yeltsin proved ineffective as a Russian President and ever since Vladimir Putin took office in 2000, Russia has slipped back into autocracy and authoritarianism, with its elections being widely regarded as neither free nor fair by any standards, even those of the 1991 and 1996 Russian Presidential elections which were marred by irregularities. Mr Gorbachev's attempt at a political comeback failed disastrously; he polled just 0.5% of the vote in 1996, and made no further attempts to return to Russian politics other than as a critic of President Putin's regime.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">So farewell, Mr Gorbachev. Even though the freedoms in Russia you wanted to bring about ultimately did not last there even if the failed centralised economic system never returned, the world has become a freer and more peaceful place overall in the long-term due to your efforts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev, born 2 March 1931, departed this life on 30 August 2022, aged 91 years.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-53360663472562103962022-08-26T15:58:00.001+01:002022-08-26T15:58:13.385+01:00My analysis of British local by-elections during August 2022<p><span style="font-family: arial;"> Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place during August 2022 were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(4/8/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Luton UA, Dallow: </b>Labour 1,486 (53.6%, -11.7%), Liberal Democrats 1,076 (38.8%), Conservative 154 (5.6%, -7.6%), Independent (Schiemann) 58 (2.1%). [Other Independent did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Shetland UA, North Isles (1st preference votes, all candidates were Independents): </b>Robert Thomson 680 (68.6%), Sonia Robertson 106 (10.7%), Gary Cleaver 100 (10.1%), Maria Williamson 92 (9.3%), Stewart Douglas 13 (1.3%). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(11/8/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Bridgend UA, Bridgend Central</b>: Independent (Easterbrook) 716 (46.8%, +2.2%*), Labour 590 (38.6%, -4.1%), Conservative 150 (9.8%, -2.9%), Green 40 (2.6%), Liberal Democrats 34 (2.2%). Independent gain from Labour.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Spelthorne BC, Laleham & Shepperton Green</b>: Conservative 810 (55.5%, +23.4%), Liberal Democrats 578 (39.6%, +23.3%), TUSC 71 (4.9%). [Greens, UKIP, and Labour did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Wychavon DC, Dodderhill</b>: Conservative 199 (48.9%), Green 176 (43.2%), Liberal Democrats 32 (7.9%). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(18/8/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Cambridge BC, Trumpington</b>: Liberal Democrats 1,017 (49.8%, +8.8%), Labour 472 (23.1%, -4.0%), Green 298 (14.6%, +0.1%), Conservative 256 (12.5%, -4.9%). All changes are since 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Wyre DC, Pressal</b>l: Independent (Rushworth) 595 (39.5%), Conservative 495 (32.8%, -29.9%), Labour 315 (20.9%, -16.4%), Independent (Wright) 102 (6.8%). Independent gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(25/8/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>East Riding of Yorkshire UA, Beverley Rural</b>: Liberal Democrats 1,948 (59.4%, +37.4%), Conservative 1,116 (34.1%, -11.2%), Labour 213 (6.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">*Compared to the other two Independents on that candidate's slate who sit as Bridgend County Independents on Bridgend Council.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">During this traditional lull in the political season (the Conservative Party leadership election and the Green Party deputy leadership election notwithstanding), the Conservatives continued their run of poor performances, although surprisingly the Liberal Democrat-Green pact in Spelthorne which resulted in a Green gain of Laleham & Shepperton Green in a by-election last year failed to yield a Liberal Democrat gain, perhaps because the Green Party is perceived to be more likeable than the Liberal Democrats. Their loss of Pressall was in reaction to quarrying around that village; the Independent who won stood on a platform of opposing that quarry. Their loss of Beverley Rural and nearly losing Dodderhill is also a sign that almost no Conservative ward anywhere in the UK is safe at present.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Labour did not perform well either, losing a seat in Bridgend to a localist Independent and being knocked back in Trumpington. The Greens were unlucky to fall just 23 votes short of winning another seat in Wychavon, where like in most of Worcestershire they have been performing well recently; arguably had the Liberal Democrats not stood the Greens would have narrowly won that particular by-election. The absence of a Green candidate in the Beverley Rural by-election, by contrast, proved to decisively swing that by-election in the Liberal Democrats' favour.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-87025718120810527912022-07-29T21:47:00.002+01:002022-07-29T21:47:23.132+01:00My analysis of British local by-elections from the second fortnight of July 2022<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the second fortnight of July 2022 were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(20/07/22):<br /><b><br />Basildon BC, Nethermayne</b>: Independent (Larkin) 909 (62.7%, -10.4%), Conservative 233 (16.1%, +8.9%), Labour 169 (11.7%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 102 (7.0%, +3.8%), Reform UK 37 (2.6%). All changes are since 2019.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(21/07/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Lancaster BC, Harbour</b>: Labour 555 (47.9%, +4.5%), Liberal Democrats 479 (41.4%), Conservative 124 (10.7%, -2.6%). [Morecambe Bay Independents did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>North Warwickshire DC, Hartshill</b>: Conservative 351 (53.3%, +4.9%), Labour 307 (46.7%, +13.0%). [Greens did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>South Staffordshire DC, Penkridge North East & Acton Trussel</b>: Conservative 388 (47.8%), Liberal Democrats 378 (46.6%), Labour 45 (5.6%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(28/07/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Colchester BC, Lexden & Braiswick</b>: Conservative 1,372 (63.7%, +9.4%), Liberal Democrats 621 (28.8%, +10.6%), Labour 161 (7.5%, -3.7%). All changes are since 2021. [Greens did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>North East Derbyshire DC, Pilsey & Morton</b>: Labour 806 (65.9%, +31.9%), Conservative 361 (29.5%, +15.5%), Green 34 (2.8%), Liberal Democrats 22 (1.8%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">We are now in the main holiday session, and councils rarely schedule by-elections during late July or during August. The only significant events of note in this set of by-elections were two near-misses by the Liberal Democrats: one in Harbour, Morecambe, where the localist vote that normally goes to the Morecambe Bay Independents in Morecambe transferred to the Liberal Democrats readily, and one in Penkridge North East & Acton Trussel, which in 2019 had seen 2 Conservative councillors elected unopposed, and which in fact has only seen one contested election since its creation in 2003. Recent by-elections have shown that the Conservatives remain complacent in heartlands such as South Staffordshire and Rutland.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-53773728849888314002022-07-28T20:59:00.005+01:002022-07-28T20:59:41.981+01:00My tribute to David Trimble, Baron Trimble of Lisnagarvey<p><span style="font-family: arial;">David Trimble, latterly Lord Trimble (or Baron Trimble of Lisnagarvey, to give his official title when he was in the House of Lords), the first First Minister of Northern Ireland who like John Hume played an instrumental part in ensuring peace in Northern Ireland via the Good Friday Agreement, died earlier this week.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Although Lord Trimble, who led the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) for 10 years was initially elected as a more conservative, traditional unionist leader, he eventually realised, having initially opposed any power sharing between unionists and nationalists for years, that brokering a peace agreement involving both sides of the sectarian divide in Northern Ireland was the only way Northern Ireland could move on from its past and forge a new future. Previous attempts at a Northern Ireland Assembly had failed before following the collapse of the Northern Ireland Parliament in 1972, but Lord Trimble knew that a permanent Assembly, following the Northern Ireland Forum of 1996, was required. Although his tenure as First Minister of Northern Ireland did not go smoothly despite his efforts, the Northern Ireland Assembly still exists to this day. In his final years he opposed anything that he felt could undermine the Good Friday Agreement, including changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">So farewell, Lord Trimble. In addition to your work in ensuring the Good Friday Agreement came to pass, you proved that "hardline" politicians are capable of changing and seeing reason and sense if necessary, given enough time and experience.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>William David Trimble, Baron Trimble of Lisnagarvey, born 15 October 1944, departed this life on 25 July 2022, aged 77 years.</b></span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-75211949330157363892022-07-15T19:35:00.004+01:002022-07-15T19:35:33.614+01:00My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of July 2022<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of July 2022 were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(7/7/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Camden LBC, Hampstead Town:</b> Liberal Democrats 919 (40.9%, +20.1%), Conservative 620 (27.6%, -11.8%), Labour 559 (24.9%, -15.0%), Green 104 (4.6%), Independent (Livingstone) 44 (2.0%), National Housing Party 1 (0.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Chesterfield BC, Hollingwood & Inkersall</b>: Labour 747 (48.5%, +15.1%), Independent (Rhodes) 676 (43.9%, -9.2%)*, Green 118 (7.7%). Labour gain from Independent. [Conservatives and Liberal Democrats did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Epsom & Ewell BC, West Ewell</b>: Residents' Association 549 (43.4%, -28.9%), Labour 395 (31.2%, +20.4%), Conservative 205 (16.2%, +8.3%), Liberal Democrats 117 (9.2%, +0.3%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Hackney LBC, De Beauvoir:</b> Labour 758 (41.5%, -15.8%), Green 731 (40.3%, +21.3%), Liberal Democrats 133 (7.3%, -6.6%), Independent Network 83 (4.6%, -4.9%), Conservative 82 (4.5%), Women's Equality Party 27 (1.5%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Milton Keynes UA, Woughton & Fishermead</b>: Labour 1,355 (73.3%, +15.6%), Conservative 340 (18.4%, -6.5%), Liberal Democrats 154 (8.3%, +2.4%). All changes are since May. [Greens did not stand] </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Mole Valley DC, Charlwood</b>: Green 284 (41.7%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 210 (30.8%, +19.5%), Conservative 166 (24.4%, -22.0%), Labour 21 (3.1%). Green gain from Conservative. [UKIP did not stand] </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Welwyn Hatfield BC, Hatfield Central</b>: Labour 599 (53.7%, +8.6%), Conservative 273 (24.4%, -9.2%), Liberal Democrats 183 (16,4%, -4.8%), Abolish the BBC TV Licence 61 (5.5%)**. All changes are since May.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>West Sussex CC, Worthing West</b>: Labour 1,262 (52.0%, +5.7%), Conservative 795 (32.8%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 253 (9.7%, +5.3%), Green 133 (5.5%, -1.8%). [No Independent candidates this time]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">*Mr Rhodes was supported by the Community Independents.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">**Description used by Melvyn Jones, who previously stood under the description "Abolish Hatfield Town Council".</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(14/7/22):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Breckland DC, Thetford Boudica</b>: Labour 398 (51.0%, +2.1%), Conservative 383 (49.0%, -2.1%). Labour gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Coventry MBC, Binley & Willenhall</b>: Labour 934 (36.2%, -5.1%), Conservative 765 (29.6%, +0.7%), Coventry Citizens 746 (28.9%, +9.6%), Democracy & Freedom 91 (3.5%, +0.1%), TUSC 46 (1.8%). All changes are since May. [Greens did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Hyndburn BC, Overton</b>: Labour 773 (52.5%, +5.9%), Conservative 600 (40.5%, -0.5%), Independent (Miller) 71 (4.8%), Reform UK 36 (2.4%, -10.2%). All changes are since 2021.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>North Tyneside MBC, Camperdown</b>: Labour 873 (59.0%, -9.3%), Conservative 388 (26.2%, -1.9%), Liberal Democrats 124 (8.4%), Green 58 (3.9%, -3.4%), UKIP 36 (2.4%). All changes are since May.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>South Somerset DC, Brympton</b>: Liberal Democrats 582 (58.6%, +4.2%), Conservative 251 (25.3%, -9.2%), Green 71 (7.1%), Labour 61 (6.1%, -4.3%), Independent (Richards) 29 (2.9%). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Wandsworth LBC, Tooting Broadway</b>: Labour 1,429 (62.2%, +1.7%), Conservative 491 (21.4%, +3.2%), Green 285 (12.4%, -3.3%), Liberal Democrats 94 (4.1%, -1.6%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Warwickshire CC, Arden</b>: Conservative 1,609 (59.3%, -14.7%), Liberal Democrats 854 (31.5%, +24.3%), Labour 251 (9.2%, -0.8%). [Greens did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Wirral MBC, Liscard</b>: Labour 1,304 (64.8%, +7.9%), Conservative 370 (18.4%, -7.8%), Green 172 (8.5%, +0.4%), Liberal Democrats 167 (8.3%, +1.7%). All changes are since 2021</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(NB: A by-election in Oakham South, Rutland, would have been held yesterday but the Liberal Democrat winner ran unopposed; result here is Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Amidst the Conservative Party leadership election, due to conclude in 7 1/2 weeks, the Conservatives' terrible run in British local by-elections continued, losing 3 of the 4 wards up for election this past fortnight that were vacated by the Conservatives, including Oakham South where the Conservatives did not even defend the seat despite Rutland overall being a long-standing Conservative heartland. Only the result in Binley & Willenhall, Coventry, was even remotely positive for the Conservatives although in this case the localist Coventry Citizens party split both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Although Labour generally did well, notably by gaining Thetford Boudica from the Conservatives (and Thetford is normally a promising town for the Conservatives; this proved especially so in the post-EU membership referendum aftermath), their loss of Hampstead Town to the Liberal Democrats, especially combined with a fall to third place, was a stark reminder of voter dissatisfaction with both main parties, as well as progressive voters not having much faith in Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. As for their surge in Epsom & Ewell, this is attributable to affluent public sector executives moving to this area; even though Epsom & Ewell has house prices comparable with many London boroughs. This also explains why Labour's recent general election results in the Epsom & Ewell constituency (which also includes the town of Ashtead in the Mole Valley district) were not as bad as most Surrey constituencies, considering Epsom & Ewell's demographics and wealth which is generally in line with Surrey as a whole.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Greens' spectacular gain of Charlwood, Mole Valley, gives them their first district councillor ever in Mole Valley, Surrey, one of the wealthiest districts in the United Kingdom outside London, and compensates for their near miss in De Beauvoir ward, Hackney. The Liberal Democrats did not make as significant progress this fortnight as before, primarily because many of the contests this past fortnight were primarily Labour vs. Conservative, and their comfortable hold in Brympton is largely academic as South Somerset District Council, along with said Brympton ward, will cease to exist next May; other district and borough councils where new unitary elections were held this May (i.e. Cumbria, now split between Cumberland and Westmorland & Furness, North Yorkshire, and Somerset) have already ceased holding by-elections for vacancies occurring on those councils.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-86752394355068470372022-07-01T21:47:00.001+01:002022-07-01T21:47:06.216+01:00My analysis of by-elections from the last fortnight of June 2022<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last fortnight of June 2022 were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(23/06/2022):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Harlow BC, Bush Fair</b>: Labour 594 (47.1%, +2.6%), Conservative 482 (38.2%, -6.5%), Green 109 (8.6%, +1.0%), Harlow Alliance 76 (6.0%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since this May. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Kingston-upon-Thames LBC, New Malden Village (deferred election)</b>*: Liberal Democrats 1,217/1,184/1,182 (40.7%), Green 867/Kingston Independent Residents** 724/703 (29.0%), Conservative 467/372/327 (15.6%), Labour 436/429/374 (14.6%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Neath Port Talbot UA, Port Talbot (deferred election): </b>Labour 914/898 (62.2%), Plaid Cymru 367/244 (21.0%), Independents (Davies, Isherwood) 246/171 (14.3%), Green 46/25 (2.4%). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Shropshire UA, Highley: </b>Liberal Democrats 630 (54.5%), Conservative 279 (24.1%, -9.5%), Labour 239 (20.7%, +7.3%), Green 9 (0.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, where no other Independent defended the seat.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Waverley DC, Hindhead</b>: Liberal Democrats 537 (54.6%, +5.8%), Conservative 446 (45.4%, +1.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(30/06/2022):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Buckinghamshire UA, Bernwood</b>: Liberal Democrats 1,158 (38.7%, +24.0%), Green 1,030 (34.4%, -1.0%), Conservative 723 (24.1%, -14.8%), Labour 85 (2.8%, -8.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Croydon LBC, Croydon South:</b> Conservative 1,306 (42.9%, +2.1%), Labour 821 (27.0%, -2.4%), Liberal Democrats 448 (14.7%, +0.9%), Green 269 (8.8%, -4.6%), Independent (Pelling) 158 (5.2%), UKIP 25 (0.8%, -1.8%), Independent (Samuel) 18 (0.6%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>East Yorkshire UA, Bridlington North</b>: Liberal Democrats 1,950 (57.1%), Conservative 1,077 (31.5%, -38.8%), Labour 171 (5.0%, -24.7%), SDP 125 (3.7%), Yorkshire Party 93 (2.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Eilean Siar UA, Barraigh agus Bhatarsaigh (1st preference votes)</b>: Independent (MacNeil) 189 (49.3%), Independent (MacDonald) 181 (47.3%), Independent (MacMillan) 13 (3.4%). Independent (MacNeil) win at stage 2 (by-election held due to insufficient nominations in May).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Eilean Siar UA, Sgir Uige agus Carlabhagh (1st preference votes)</b>: Independent (Macdonald) 222 (35.4%), Liberal Democrats 128 (20.4%), Independent (Brown) 113 (18.0%), SNP 96 (15.3%), Green 57 (9.1%), Independent (MacLeod) 11 (1.8%), Independent (MacKinnon) 1 (0.2%). Independent (MacDonald) win at stage 4 (by-election held due to insufficient nominations in May).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Liverpool MBC, Fazakerley</b>: Labour 1,365 (57.5%, -9.7%), Independent (Wharton) 638 (26.9%), Liberal Democrats 290 (12.2%, +0.4%), Green 79 (3.3%, -5.7%). [Conservatives and continuity Liberals did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Middlesbrough UA, Berwick Hills & Pallister</b>: Labour 361 (56.8%, +25.8%), Independent (James) 204 (32.1%, -32.2%)^, Conservative 53 (8.3%, +2.8%), Liberal Democrats 11 (1.7%), Green 7 (1.1%). Labour gain from Independent.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Newark & Sherwood DC, Ollerton</b>: Labour 962 (64.9%, +1.6%), Conservative 395 (27.7%, -10.1%), Independent (Spry) 125 (8.4%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>South Derbyshire DC, Midway</b>: Labour 600 (52.6%, +14.2%), Conservative 540 (47.4%, +11.0%). Labour gain from Conservative. [UKIP did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Wyre DC, Cleveleys Park</b>: Conservative 721 (53.7%, -9.7%), Labour 621 (46.3%, +9.7%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">*New ward so no comparisons with 2018 are possible for this deferred election.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">** The Green candidate and the 2 Kingston Independent Residents candidates stood in an electoral pact.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">^Mr James was supported by the Independent group on Middlesbrough Council.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">These two weeks of local by-elections brought more woe for the Conservatives to follow with and from their crushing defeats in the Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton parliamentary by-elections, and more are likely to come later this year. Of the 7 seats they were defending this fortnight in local by-elections, the Conservatives held only 2 (and the Cleveleys Park result was relatively close); their slight swing against Labour in Croydon South (2.3%) primarily came about because former Conservative MP and former Labour councillor Andrew Pelling made a bid for the seat; Mr Pelling failed badly, finishing third last, and such a poor performance (especially given his past successes) means he is unlikely to return to Croydon London Borough Council in the near future. Furthermore, the Conservatives performed just as badly in less affluent wards north of the Wash that voted strongly Brexit in the EU membership referendum in 2016 as they did in wealthy wards south of the Wash that voted strongly Remain. It is becoming abundantly clear that there are no benefits to Brexit except for speculators and unscrupulous financiers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Liberal Democrats and Labour both performed well, depending on what type of ward it was, the demographics of that ward, and the lingering effects of Brexit. The Greens managed a good second in New Malden Village; normally in Kingston-upon-Thames the Liberal Democrats squeeze the Green vote heavily, and came close to winning a second seat in Bernwood. In the latter by-election, the successful Liberal Democrat candidate was a retired headteacher who had taught at one of the primary schools in the ward, proof of the continuing importance of localism at election time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Meanwhile, over in Eilean Siar ("Western Isles" in English, effectively the Outer Hebrides), the fact that by-elections had to be held simply due to undernomination (where fewer candidates are nominated than there are available seats for a ward or other type of electoral district) is indicative of a serious but poorly documented problem in the United Kingdom-the currently inexorable decline of rural areas, especially in Scotland and Wales (undernomination is an occasional problem in Welsh local elections as well, particularly in Gwynedd and Powys). Of the 28 council areas in England and Wales (2021 census data for Scottish council areas is not available yet) that showed either a population decline or no population growth between the 2011 census and the 2021 census, 8 were in Wales and 6 were in rural English districts, and these are areas where uncontested elections are most frequent. The situation is even worse in some parts of Europe-"empty Spain" is a notorious phenomenon in rural Spain where villages have become completely depopulated. Revitalisation of rural areas is vital; our future cannot be entirely urban or metropolitan.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-50831101569089941642022-06-25T14:48:00.002+01:002022-06-25T14:48:15.094+01:00Why Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organisation goes further than merely overturning Roe v Wade<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The US Supreme Court decision in <i>Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organisation</i> (this organisation is based in the US state of Mississippi, of which Jackson is the state capital), which critically has the effect of overturning <i>Roe v Wade </i>[1973] (which guaranteed a constitutional right for women to have abortions) and Planned Parenthood v Casey, meaning that many </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Although it is a decision concerning the rights of unborn children and the rights of women, it goes wider than that. Here is why:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>1. It is reflective of a polarised and divided society that could split in the near future. </b>The majority of US states with "trigger laws" surrounding significant abortion restrictions are south of Washington DC; the majority of US states that still retain the death penalty are also south of Washington DC (and those states with the strictest abortion laws in the USA are amongst those who have carried out the most executions since <i>Gregg v Georgia</i> [1976], making a mockery of any pro-life claims of theirs). Furthermore, all of the US states which have trigger laws that will now come into effect are strongly Republican in terms of their legislature and the Senate, with virtually no hope of a change in that status, whereas the US states with the most liberal laws on abortion are strongly Democrat (or otherwise progressive, in Vermont's case) and are not likely to elect Republican legislatures anytime soon. The events of the last few years show that the USA could in the near future split along the Mason Dixon line, even if only ipso facto, and so could other societies for that matter.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>2. It will trigger reverberating effects elsewhere in the world. </b>Already in the European Union, Hungary and Poland (strongly Catholic and which were both once behind the Iron Curtain) have been taking a hardline stance on social matters, and not just regarding abortion restrictions either; other European nations could follow suit. For example, Croatia, where abortion is legal yet where most of the population is Catholic, has seen significant pro-life protests recently and many doctors there are refusing to carry out abortions. Also, more liberal nations will face increasing pressure to further liberalise their abortion laws to the point where abortion is legal at any stage of pregnancy and for any reason (as is the case in Canada, for instance).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>3. It sows the seeds for other rights being rolled back in the USA. </b>The decision to overturn Roe v Wade happened first and foremost because of the US Supreme Court's make-up: 6 Republicans and 3 Democrats. (The UK Supreme Court, thankfully, is not divided on partisan lines at all because of the existence of the Judicial Appointments Commission and the strict requirements for political impartiality) Voting rights, legal protections for the indigent etc. will also be significantly under threat in the USA as a result-and as mentioned above, this will likely result in similar effects somewhere across the Atlantic.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-29676561968165393722022-06-24T23:19:00.001+01:002022-06-24T23:19:33.057+01:00The Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton by-elections: Both sides of the Wash<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">Readers, the result of the Wakefield by-election, in case you missed it, were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: arial;">Nadeem Ahmed, Conservative, 8,241 (30.0%, -17.3%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #666666; font-family: arial;">Akef Akbar, Independent, 2,090 (7.6%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #741b47; font-family: arial;">Paul Bickerdike, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 144 (0.5%)<br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #d5a6bd; font-family: arial;">Mick Dodgson, Freedom Alliance, 187 (0.7%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #ff00fe; font-family: arial;">Earl Eaton, OMRLP, 171 (0.6%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #666666; font-family: arial;">Jayda Fransen, Independent, 23 (0.1%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #800180; font-family: arial;">Jordan Gaskell, UKIP, 124 (0.5%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #01ffff; font-family: arial;">David Herdson, Yorkshire Party, 1,182 (4.3%, +2.4%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #b45f06; font-family: arial;">Therese Hirst, English Democrats, 135 (0.5%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #990000; font-family: arial;">Christopher Jones, Northern Independence Party, 84 (0.3%)</span></p><p><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">Simon Lightwood, Labour, 13,166 (47.9%, +8.1%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #ffa400; font-family: arial;">Jamie Needle, Liberal Democrats, 508 (1.8%, -2.1%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #04ff00; font-family: arial;">Ashley Routh, Green Party, 587 (2.2%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #20124d; font-family: arial;">Ashlea Simon, Britain First, 311 (1.1%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #76a5af; font-family: arial;">Chris Walsh, Reform UK, 513 (1.9%, -4.2%)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Labour GAIN from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And here is the result of the Tiverton & Honiton by-election which was declared only five minutes after the Wakefield by-election result was declared:</span></p><p><span style="color: #134f5c; font-family: arial;">Jordan Donoghue-Morgan, Heritage Party, 167 (0.4%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #76a5af; font-family: arial;">Andy Foan, Reform UK, 481 (1.1%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #ffa400; font-family: arial;">Richard Foord, Liberal Democrats, 22,537 (52.9%, +38.1%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: arial;">Helen Hurford, Conservative, 16,393 (38.5%, -21.7%)</span></p><p><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">Liz Pole, Labour, 1,562 (3.7%, -15.8%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #20124d; font-family: arial;">Frankie Rufolo, For Britain, 146 (0.3%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #800180; font-family: arial;">Ben Walker, UKIP, 241 (0.6%, -1.0%)</span></p><p><span style="color: #04ff00; font-family: arial;">Gill Westcott, 1,064 (2.5%, -1.3%)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Wakefield by-election marked the first time Labour has gained a seat in a parliamentary by-election in nearly a decade; they last did so at the Corby by-election of November 2012, and both were Labour gains from the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the Tiverton & Honiton by-election marked the largest majority overturned in any by-election; in 2019 the Conservative majority was 24,239 in Tiverton & Honiton, and over Labour, not the Liberal Democrats who won it from third place on a spectacular 29.9% swing. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The swing in the Wakefield by-election was considerably below expectations, though, at 12.7%. Simon Lightwood (who had been a caseworker for Mary Creagh, who served as Labour MP from 2005 to 2019) was chosen from a shortlist which excluded any Labour candidates who actually lived in the constituency of Wakefield, causing the entire executive of Wakefield Constituency Labour Party (CLP) to resign in protest. Labour's divisions over the rail strikes that have been taking place this week did not help their case either in the run up to polling day. Meanwhile, the Conservatives' selection of a candidate who had just a month beforehand lost the confidence of Wakefield Metropolitan Borough Council's Conservative group, and even before nominations closed the Conservative campaign attracted negative attention when its leaflets misspelled the names of two villages contained within the Wakefield constituency. The spectre of partygate, combined with the circumstances of the by-election (Imran Ahmad Khan resigned after being convicted of sexually assaulting a 15 year old boy, a heinous crime for which he is now serving a prison sentence of 18 months), the (ultimately unsuccessful) vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson which occurred 1 1/2 weeks before the by-election, and the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, sealed the Conservatives' fate, as did indirectly the candidacy of an Independent and ex-Conservative councillor, Akef Akbar, who exceeded expectations by saving his deposit, something that ex-Conservative councillor and Yorkshire Party candidate David Herdson did not do, although his result of 4.3% is nevertheless the best Yorkshire Party parliamentary election result so far. This and the poor turnout figure of 39.1% in a marginal seat which received considerable media attention shows that tactical voting was only a factor amongst more progressive voters (those who would vote Liberal Democrat or Green in local and general elections; Wakefield is a weak area for both parties), not among moderates dissatisfied with the Conservatives. In these circumstances the Greens did well, by beating both the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK, especially since this was the first time the Greens stood in Wakefield since the 2015 general election. Like in Birmingham Erdington, the collapse of Reform UK's vote did not help the Conservatives.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Also notable in the Wakefield by-election was the abject failure of the racist right. Jayda Fransen polled her lowest vote total ever, 23, receiving the wooden spoon in the Wakefield by-election, and both UKIP and the English Democrats suffered the humiliation of finishing behind the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, which they somehow managed to narrowly avoid doing in both the Batley & Spen and the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-elections last year. Britain First was the only racist right party in this by-election not to be beaten by the OMRLP, although even then their vote total of 311 was pathetic. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There was speculation on whether the Tiverton & Honiton by-election would be a close result, given the majority that needed to be overturned and the Conservatives selecting a local candidate with strong roots in the constituency (unlike in the North Shropshire by-election last year; these seats share several similarities). However, the gaffes made by the Conservatives during their campaign (e.g. a quote from Helen Hurford that they would fight "one trillion thousand per cent" for constituents), as well as the national factors that affected the Wakefield by-election (see above), ensured that the Liberal Democrats gained the seat with a crushing majority of 6,144. In the ensuing tactical squeeze that followed, Labour lost their deposit, and even the Green Party was squeezed to a lesser extent, somewhat mirroring the Chesham & Amersham by-election even though Tiverton & Honiton is a very different seat indeed. Like North Shropshire, Tiverton & Honiton is a large rural seat with comparatively poor transport links far from any major city, and is experiencing a growing divide between wealthier rural inhabitants and small towns feeling they are being left behind, although Honiton is now attracting Exeter commuters. Just as with Wakefield, parties to the right of the Conservatives socially endured a humiliating failure; the Reform UK Party, UK Independence Party, Heritage Party, and For Britain Party polled fewer votes between them than the Green Party managed alone.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In both by-elections, there was evidence of an unofficial nonaggression pact designed to ensure defeat of the Conservatives whichever party was best suited to win the seat from them, and it worked spectacularly. In 1997, such a "nonaggression pact" between Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown ensured that the Conservatives suffered their worst ever defeat since their foundation in 1832, and given the similarities in important policy positions between Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Ed Davey, such a pact could definitely come into play for the next general election in 2024 or earlier. This pair of by-elections is a shape of things to come in electoral terms over the next two years.</span></p><p><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #990000; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="color: #666666; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-16851382616537687142022-06-20T22:54:00.003+01:002022-06-21T15:19:10.463+01:00The French parliamentary election of 2022: La malaise de Macron<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The French parliamentary election of 2022 reached its conclusion last night at the end of the second round of voting, and just after Emmanuel Macron's re-election as President of France, delivered a telling blow to his grip on power.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">M. Macron's alliance, Ensemble (dominated by La Republique-En Marche, but also containing the centrist parties of Territories of Progress, Democratic Movement, and Horizons) emerged as the largest alliance with 245 seats, but this represents a loss of 105 seats across those parties, with LREM alone losing 138 seats. Their heaviest losses came in the Pyrenees and in the Greater Paris region (i.e. Ile-de-France), the site of many a protest against M. Macron's reforms and against the severe lockdown restrictions during 2020 and 2021. This critically meant that Ensemble lost its majority in the French National Assembly, and cooperation from parties outside Ensemble is not forthcoming.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The New Ecologic and Social People's Union (NUPES), led by socialist firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Insoumisse (FI), was the most significant beneficiary of Macron's woes due to tactical voting in the second round. NUPES (including FI, EELV, PS, and the PCF) won a total of 131 seats, more than doubling the total of the sum of NUPES' constituent parties in 2017, including all 12 circonscriptions (constituencies) in the troubled Seine Saint-Denis department and the majority of overseas circonscriptions. Importantly in terms of needing to tackle the climate emergency, EELV won 27 of those seats, an increase of 26 compared to 2017. Although M. Melenchon is a rather divisive figure even by the standards of the French "left", progressive forces have clearly learned their lesson from the French Presidential election and will prove a strong opposition to Ensemble and M. Macron's attempts to push through further pro-free market social and economic reforms.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The racist right Rassemblent National (National Rally, formerly the French National Front) won 89 seats (an increase of 81 compared to 2017) despite the best efforts of tactical voting by moderates, almost entirely in circonscriptions far from major cities. In Ile-de-France RN won only 2 seats, but surprisingly it managed to almost sweep Var and Vaucluse on the Cote d'Azur, which whilst generally wealthier than the industrial north of France where RN was expected to make the most gains, is more homogenous than average and has a large retiree population, and is one of the most socially conservative areas of France. For similar reasons it managed strong gains in Occitanie near the Spanish border. Like the divides in the French Presidential election, the gains made by RN (and where they were concentrated) are symbolic of a rapidly polarising nation, rising wealth inequality and decreasing social mobility, and dissatisfaction with moderates during the global cost-of-living crisis. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The moderate conservative faction, Union of the Right and Centre (UDC), dominated by Les Republicans (LR), had salt rubbed in their wounds from the French Presidential election. Despite making a few gains from Ensemble, their seat total (counting all constituent parties of UDC) was more than halved from 136 seats to just 61, holding out mainly in the more prosperous areas of northeastern France (e.g. Saint-Quentin in Aisne's 2nd constituency) and the most rural departments. In much of northeastern France it was eclipsed by RN, and many wealthier urban areas that would have been bankers for LR are now clearly in Ensemble's court, reminiscent of the Liberal Democrats' advances in many once safely Conservative urban areas in the United Kingdom; less than half of UDC's wins were in Ile-de-France or other major French cities such as Lyon and Bordeaux.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">With the four largest players polling 81.38% of the votes between them in the first round, it is surprising that as many as 42 MPs elected to the French National Assembly were not from one of the four parties mentioned above, although many of them were supported by those four in local agreements.. These included 10 regionalists, mainly in Corsica but also for the first time a Breton regionalist in Morbitan's 4th constituency, although the winner in question, Paul Molac, was the incumbent having briefly served with LREM. Eric Zemmour's radical right Reconquiete party, being overshadowed the stronger RN, failed to win a single circonscription and even its sole MP, Guillaume Peltier, failed to make the second round in Loir et Cher's 2nd circonscription. None of the Independent Ecologist candidates who would not join or endorse EELV for one reason or another won any seats either.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Even though Ensemble is 44 seats short of a majority, it will likely maintain power in practice since no other party has a hope of gaining the required support necessary to nominate the next Prime Minister of France, and reliance on support from UDC could push Macronesque reform further in favour of the free market and a smaller state than anticipated, or at least block M. Melenchon's efforts to further reform in favour of a much greener and more progressive France.</span></p><p><br /></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-71142440000125342182022-06-18T22:38:00.000+01:002022-06-18T22:38:57.917+01:00My analysis of British local by-elections from the first half of June 2022<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first half of June 2022 were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(9/6/2022): </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Breckland DC, Mattishall: Conservative 539 (41.9%, -4.2%), Independent (Oeschle) 486 (37.8%), Labour 260 (20.2%, -5.5%). [Other Independent did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Crawley BC, Southgate: Labour 938 (50.1%, +2.2%), Conservative 790 (42.2%, +3.7%), Green 144 (7.7%). All changes are since 2019. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone: Liberal Democrats 343 (54.4%), Conservative 288 (45.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(16/6/2022):</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Rother DC, Brede & Udimore: Conservative 424 (61.4%, +21.5%), Liberal Democrats 266 (38.6%, +30.8%). [Independent, Labour, and UKIP did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Sunderland MBC, Copt Hill (deferred election): Labour 969 (44.5%, -1.2%), Independent (Pearson) 606 (27.8%), Conservative 384 (17.6%, -6.8%), Green 158 (7.3%, -2.0%), Liberal Democrats 61 (2.8%, -3.6%). All changes are since 2021. [UKIP did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Warwick DC, Leamington Clarendon: Labour 1064 (49.0%, +15.1%), Liberal Democrats 612 (28.2%, -0.8%), Conservative 365 (16.8%, -1.3%), Green 105 (4.8%, -7.5%), UKIP 24 (1.1%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Wyre Forest DC, Franche & Habberley North: Conservative 826 (45.2%, +25.4%), Labour 656 (35.9%, +16.7%), Liberal Democrats 347 (19.0%, +8.4%). Conservative gain from Independent Community & Health Concern, who did not defend the seat. [UKIP and Greens did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(NB: There were no by-elections on 2nd June as this was part of the Platinum Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Despite the vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson (which ultimately failed last Monday by a margin of 211 to 148) being a hot topic in the run up to these by-elections, the Conservatives only lost 1 of the 3 seats they were defending and they even gained a seat from the declining Independent Community & Health Concern Party, the localist legacy of Wyre Forest's Independent MP Richard Taylor, who did not defend their seat following their <a href="https://www.kidderminstershuttle.co.uk/news/20147437.independent-health-concern-party-retire-political-fray/">announcement that they would be retiring from the political scene.</a> Nevertheless, their close run in two rural wards, as well as losing a ward containing wealthy villages near Sevenoaks, Kent, shows they are still on the downturn. That last by-election was the Liberal Democrats' only highlight in the first half of this month in local by-election terms.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Labour also had a reasonably strong performance (and their lead over the Conservatives in voter intention polls is only modest at best), holding a key marginal ward in Crawley (which has been an important political bellwether in the past), rebuffing a Liberal Democrat challenge in Leamington (and in a ward north of the River Leam; the other two wards in Royal Leamington Spa north of the River Leam, Lillington and Milverton, are strongly Liberal Democrat), and have essentially re-established themselves as the key challengers to the Conservatives in Wyre Forest, with news of ICHC's impending political demise. The Greens struggled with by-elections in this half of the month, notably enduring a tactical squeeze by the Liberal Democrats in Leamington Clarendon (all to no avail for the latter) but finishing well ahead of the Liberal Democrats in Copt Hill, Sunderland.</span></p><p><br /></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-4372638912908357472022-05-27T21:10:00.001+01:002022-05-27T21:10:31.689+01:00My analysis of British local by-elections from the last 3 weeks of May 2022<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last 3 weeks of May 2022 were as follows:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>(12/5/22):</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Lewes DC, Peacehaven West:</b> Labour 641 (54.7%), Conservative 467 (39.8%, +12.0%), Green 32 (2.7%, -13.7%), Liberal Democrats 32 (2.7%, -15.1%). Labour gain from Conservative [No Independent or UKIP candidates this time]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Waverley DC, Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford</b>: Independent 492 (42.1%), Green 354 (30.3%, -4.2%), Conservative 323 (27.6%, -20.6%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>(19/5/22):</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Lancaster BC, Ellel:</b> Green 547 (39.7%, +20.2%), Labour 418 (30.4%, -1.9%), Conservative 377 (27.4%, -14.6%), Liberal Democrats 35 (2.5%, -3.7%). Green gain from Conservative.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>(25/5/22)</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Spelthorne BC, Lakeham & Shepperton Green:</b> Green 903 (51.7%, +31.1%), Conservative 775 (44.4%, +11.6%), TUSC 69 (3.9%). Green gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats, Labour, and UKIP did not stand]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>(26/5/22):</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Gedling BC, Gedling</b>: Labour 693 (39.4%, -13.5%), Conservative 544 (30.9%, +3.1%), Liberal Democrats 428 (24.3%, +5.4%), Green 95 (5.4%).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>North Kesteven DC, Sleaford Quallinton & Mareham</b>: Lincolnshire Independents 545 (39.8%), Conservative 539 (39.3%, +6.9%), Labour 287 (20.9%, -2.4%). Lincolnshire Independents gain from Conservative. [No Independent candidates this time]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Redbridge LBC, Mayfield (deferred election):</b> Labour 2349/2148/2125 (71.1%, -7.4%), Conservative 525/470/360 (14.5%, -7.0%), Liberal Democrats 229 (7.4%), Independent Network 218 (7.0%). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">These seven by-elections continued the trends seen in the local elections on 5th May. The Conservatives lost all five of the seats they were defending in by-elections in the 3 weeks since then, notably including two to the Green Party. Partygate is still haunting the Conservatives and the recent publication of the Sue Gray report is only increasing pressure on Boris Johnson and his Cabinet. In Lancaster, the Greens' primary support base is in the city of Lancaster itself, the breakthrough into the rural Ellel ward is a crucial breakthrough since with new ward boundaries for Lancaster set to come into force next year (when Lancaster next has council elections) there will be a hard contest to see who controls the next administration in Lancaster; the Greens currently lead the administration there. Meanwhile in Spelthorne, the lack of either Labour or Liberal Democrat candidates clearly aided a Green gain there, with the Greens being the only real challengers to the Conservatives in that by-election. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Labour's gain of Peacehaven West is a clear sign that the demographic change that helped Labour gain control of Worthing is spreading east of Brighton as well; like Worthing and Shoreham, Peacehaven was once a typical retirement resort town, but like Worthing and Shoreham middle-class professional commuters to Brighton (and London for that matter) are increasingly flocking to it, and Newhaven and Seaford in the south of the Lewes district. Therefore, the Labour gain in Peacehaven cannot be regarded as a fluke by-election result.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The most seemingly surprising result is the 8.3% swing to the Conservatives in Gedling ward, which Labour held with a much reduced majority, but it is a clear sign that de facto suburbs (Gedling being one of the city of Nottingham next door) will still act as political bellwethers for the foreseeable future and cannot be taken for granted just because of national polling leads.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-37430964777252459702022-05-22T22:42:00.004+01:002022-05-30T22:17:57.451+01:00All change in the Australian federal election of 2022<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Australian federal election of 2022 marked significant electoral sea change in Australia, and not just because of the convincing defeat of Scott Morrison's Liberal/National government.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">With Labor, the Greens, and "Teal" Independents all uniting against them, the Liberal/National Government dropped to just 58 seats out of 151, worse even than John Howard's defeat in 2007 (and Mr Howard actually lost his own seat, Bennelong, in that election), representing a loss of 18 seats. They also lost 4 of their Senate seats. Not only was Mr Morrison's personal unpopularity a dominating factor in the campaign, but more importantly so were environmental issues and Mr Morrison's inability to tackle them effectively, even after forest fires in Australia made international headlines as a warning about the consequences of global warming. Several Liberal seats that had withstood even Mr Howard's drubbing in 2007, such as Grey and Tangney, fell. Their most notable defeats included Liberal Deputy Leader Josh Frydenberg's loss of Kooyong to Independent Monique Ryan, the loss of the two wealthiest divisions in New South Wales, both to Independents (North Sydney and Wentworth), and losing both Brisbane and Ryan (also in the City of Brisbane) in Queensland to the Greens; Queensland has been suffering from major flash floods recently so climate change was a more significant factor in voting patterns than in any other state or either of the two territories, and thus a miniature Green surge occurred there. Across Australia the Greens' first preference vote rose by 1.5%, but in Queensland it rose by 3% (twice the national Green average increase) on average. The most significant Green increases in Queensland came in urban areas, however, even though rural areas and small cities are more vulnerable to the effects of man-made climate change especially if near or on the coast.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Labor won a slim overall majority, doing particularly well in Western Australia due to their legacy of coronavirus restrictions not being as severe as those in other states (especially Victoria) where a majority of divisions recorded a swing of 10% or more to Labor. In total they won 77 seats, giving them an overall majority of 3, and won 1 extra Senate seat. The election was not all rosy for Anthony Albanese and Labor, though. In Griffith, the division once held by Kevin Rudd when he was Prime Minister of Australia, the Labor incumbent, Terri Butler, finished third on 1st preferences whilst the Greens gained the seat, the first time in Australian history that an incumbent MP has finished third in a seat they were defending despite being re-endorsed by the party they were elected for at the preceding election. Furthermore, they also lost Fowler to a popular local independent, Dai Le. Incidentally, Ms Le once contested elections on the Liberals' behalf.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Greens achieved their best ever result in an Australian election, finally winning multiple seats in the House of Representatives and an extra 3 seats in the Senate. They increased their seat total to 4 by winning three Queensland divisions, Brisbane, Griffith, and Ryan, and easily holding Melbourne; however they did not win any additional seats in Victoria, their strongest state in Australia, despite high hopes in Macnamara in particular, which has a stronger base Liberal vote than Cooper and Wills, the other two federal visions in Victoria with strong Green votes. Interestingly the New South Wales division of Grayndler, held by the aforementioned Anthony Albanese (who is now set to become Australia's next PM), which has one of the strongest Green votes in New South Wales, was one of only a handful of divisions where the Green vote actually decreased.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The record number of Independents elected to Australia's House of Representatives is attributable to Climate 200, a centrist think tank dedicated to tackling climate change, who backed several Independents in safe Liberal divisions, primarily those in the wealthy suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney. Thus they were known as the "Teal Independents", since teal is a greenish shade of blue (the Liberals' colour in Australia), and of the 20 candidates that were considered part of this alliance (including the Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie), half were elected, unseating six Liberal incumbents in the process although all of these gains were in rural seats; only the Independents who were incumbents won any rural divisions of Australia, showing that moderate Liberal voters living in the suburbs were most likely to switch, just as within the UK at the most recent local elections, the Liberal Democrats found it much easier to win affluent suburbs or commuter towns than villages or wards containing multiple villages or hamlets.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Two minor parties on the political right, the racist right One Nation Party and the free-market conservative United Australia Party, failed to win any seats (the UAP's only MP, Craig Kelly, finished 4th in the Hughes division) and One Nation lost one of its two Senate seats, but with 4.93% and 4.18% of the 1st preference vote respectively they both made a significant impact, usually to exacerbate Liberal losses, although One Nation's strongest results came in poor, suburban fringe Labor divisions and the few (semi-) rural divisions in Labor hands in Australia e.g. Hunter and Paterson divisions in New South Wales; Labor only narrowly held on to both of these divisions on the two-candidate preferred counts. Both the sole Katter's Australian Party and Centre Alliance MPs held their seats even though Ms Sharkie was the only Centre Alliance candidate standing at this election. No other parties made a significant impact of any kind, and nor did the disappearance of the Christian Democrats (aka Fred Nile Alliance), which was deregistered earlier this year after failing to meet membership requirements (under new electoral rules, political parties in Australia must have at least 1,500 members to be registered) and in any case it had become insolvent the previous year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Ambitious climate change targets have been announced in Australia following this momentous election, but they cannot be met unless Australia phases out coal and stops opening any new coal mines; so far Labor has ruled this out even though coal is not only extremely polluting, but also very inefficient as a fuel source. There is no room for coal in a future dependent on carbon neutrality and reliance on clean, renewable energy,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(updated based on final count information on divisions that were in doubt at the time of the original post last week)</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-84598433735228019642022-05-13T23:21:00.002+01:002022-05-13T23:21:54.074+01:00My analysis of the 2022 United Kingdom local elections part 4: Final thoughts<p><span style="font-family: arial;">What conclusions can be drawn from the 2022 United Kingdom local elections?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">1. The 2022 United Kingdom local elections have further entrenched the long-term political divides showcased in the 2019 and 2021 local election results, as shown by the few councils where the Conservatives gained seats having already done so in 2021 and also the councils where they lost control and/or were nearly wiped out, and this will undoubtedly reflect somewhat on general election results come late 2023 or 2024 (even accounting for boundary changes), and by the types of councils all four main parties contesting seats in England (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green) perform well in. Many of these changes will not be reversed for years, if ever, since they are pushed by factors beyond the control of any government or political party e.g. rising house prices driving progressive voters out of London, Brighton etc. and into formerly safely Conservative towns within their reach (e.g. Worthing).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">2. The cost of living crisis has been particularly felt hard in the "Red Wall" areas, particularly those that felt the worst impacts of COVID-19 e.g. Greater Manchester and Lancashire. Although there have been claims of a "levelling up agenda" no such levelling up has occurred yet to a significant extent, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/02/levelling-up-funds-awarded-to-local-councils-of-tory-ministers">in particular affluent areas that happen to be represented by Conservative MPs have benefitted from it unnecessarily</a>, further exacerbating such discontent. The "Red Wall" term, if it had true meaning, will likely just be a political blip.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">3. The Liberal Democrats and Greens are fast becoming major players on the British political scene, and in particular the Green Party have proven themselves able to get elected in any type of council area, as the climate crisis and access to green spaces issues affect all of us, no matter who we are or where we live. Furthermore, the Green Party's breakthroughs into such areas as Croydon and Plymouth represent a major crack in the two-party duopoly of Conservative and Labour that once dominated these areas. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">4. Proportional representation is badly needed for English and Welsh councils; Welsh councils can now choose to change to a Single Transferable Vote system but so far none have elected to do so; English councils however have no such option available to them. Even with first past the post, many councils are set to remain in "no overall control" for the foreseeable future, and coalitions are becoming more common than ever in local councils in the United Kingdom. It is high time proportional representation came to British elections, at least at a local level and later at a parliamentary level as well; STV has worked very well for Scottish and Northern Irish councils, and the Additional Member System (AMS) used for the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament, and Senedd can provide fair representation and political stability and constituency links all simultaneously. </span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-86733061550234890942022-05-12T22:08:00.001+01:002022-05-12T22:08:23.691+01:00My analysis of the 2022 United Kingdom local elections part 3-the Northern Ireland Assembly<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Northern Ireland's councils are not next up for election until 2024, but its Assembly election represented a sea change in Northern Irish politics in many respects, as much as is possible with a Single Transferable Vote system and religious sectarianism still dominating its politics.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Sinn Fein, for the very first time, managed to top the Assembly poll with 27 seats, even though this represented no change from 2017, and their vote share only improved to 29%. This happened due to the Alliance Party, the most significant non-sectarian party in Northern Ireland, making a substantial breakthrough by more than doubling its seat total to 17 and finishing third overall, although most of its gains were in heavily unionist constituencies of Northern Ireland, especially County Antrim and County Down, the two counties neighbouring Belfast. This stride, which builds on the substantial progress they made in the 2019 general election, is reflective of Northern Irish society becoming increasingly secular, albeit at a slower rate than in Britain, especially in Belfast and its commuter belt. The less well connected and less affluent western counties of Northern Ireland still lag behind in this respect, and indeed the Alliance did not elect a single MLA west of Lough Neagh (corresponding to counties Fermanagh, Londonderry and Tyrone).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Even though the Alliance Party is officially non-sectarian (neither unionist nor nationalist), the two main unionist parties, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) were the parties most heavily hit by the Alliance surge. The DUP lost 3 seats and 6.7% of its 2017 vote, primarily due to a greater number of candidates standing for the more extreme Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), whose vote share increased by 5.1% yet due to them being one of the most transfer-unfriendly parties in Northern Ireland (in Strangford, TUV candidate Stephen Cooper finished third on 1st preferences but was not elected because he picked up too few transfers in later stages), they stayed at 1 MLA (Jim Allister) and in several cases split the DUP vote enough for Alliance candidates to sneak through, even though the Alliance are better at picking up transfers from the older, moderate parties on each side, the UUP and SDLP (Social Democratic Labour Party). Another notable loss for the DUP came when one of its former MLAs, Alex Easton, easily held his seat in North Down as an independent unionist; in North Down personal votes matter more than anywhere else in Northern Ireland, as does having an independent streak of some sort compared to the rest of Northern Ireland. The UUP only lost 1 seat despite trying and failing to appeal more to the pragmatic centre ground; notably their only seat loss was in East Antrim, which being close to Belfast is demographically shifting in the Alliance's favour. The SDLP was hit much harder, losing 4 seats, and in their case they have to deal with the additional problem of nationalists shifting more towards Sinn Fein in their traditional strongholds (even in Foyle they now hold an equal number of seats to Sinn Fein at Assembly level-2 each), and even in constituencies where the nationalist demographic is growing this is becoming more skewed towards Sinn Fein, as seen prominently in Belfast North's result.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">One unfortunate consequence of the Alliance surge was the elimination of Northern Ireland's Green Party from Stormont; both the Green Party MLAs lost their seats to the Alliance although the Green vote only decreased across Northern Ireland by 0.4%. People Before Profit on the other hand was luckier; Gerry Carroll retained his seat in Belfast West even though People Before Profit's vote share dropped to just 1.1% despite fielding more candidates; in Foyle their candidate Shaun Harkin only managed to poll just over half of Eamonn McCann's 2017 first preference vote, but then again Belfast West has a much stronger "radical left" base than Foyle does. Aontu, primarily known for its pro-life stance, polled 1.5% of the vote and did not come close to winning any seats at all, and only in Foyle and Belfast West, the most nationalist constituencies in Belfast, did they poll even 4%, which reflects the increasingly liberal social attitudes of Northern Ireland's Catholic population. Claire Sugden and the aforementioned Mr Easton were the only Independent candidates to be elected; all other Independent candidates fared badly polling fewer than 1000 votes apiece. It was Conor Rafferty of the Resume Party that received the wooden spoon of this election, though, polling just 13 votes in Mid Ulster.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Because the Northern Ireland Act requires that the posts of First Minister and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland be filled by the largest and second-largest parties of the Assembly, the Sinn Fein-DUP power-sharing agreement must continue even though the DUP have said they will not fill the post until what they consider their issues with the Northern Ireland Protocol are resolved. The Alliance Party will become increasingly more influential, but will this help break the sectarian divide eventually? Only time will tell.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-66901622707457021602022-05-11T22:18:00.001+01:002022-05-11T22:18:23.207+01:00My analysis of the 2022 United Kingdom local elections part 2-Scotland & Wales<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">Just as interesting as the results of the local elections in England were those in both Scotland and Wales.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Conservatives endured significant losses in Scotland and Wales just like they did in England; within Scotland they lost 63 councillors which was enough to put them third in terms of council seats in Scotland behind Labour, who have been on the downturn in Scotland ever since the SNP achieved almost a clean sweep of Scotland's Westminster constituencies in 2015. Notable losses included half their seats in Edinburgh, the Scottish capital and the most strongly unionist of Scotland's cities, all but two of their seats in Glasgow, half their seats in East Dunbartonshire, and nearly half their seats in Fife, showing that middle-class unionist areas of Scotland have sharply turned against Boris Johnson's brand of Conservatism, and the consequences of Brexit; they even lost largest party status in East Renfrewshire to the SNP. Conversely, the Conservatives held up better in rural Scottish councils and even gained 3 seats apiece in Moray and Aberdeenshire where for the most part unionist-nationalist battles between the Conservatives and SNP (and in some parts of Aberdeenshire, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP) dominate. Over in Wales, the Conservatives lost almost half the seats they were defending, boundary changes aside, notably losing control of and even largest party status on Monmouthshire, the most English-speaking county of Wales, and more than half their seats in the Vale of Glamorgan, half their seats in Cardiff particularly in the north of the Welsh capital, and they were almost wiped out in Bridgend, which is mostly represented by Conservative MP, Jamie Wallis, who is currently facing several charges relating to a traffic accident (part of the council area of Bridgend is in the Ogmore constituency).. Furthermore, in the three authorities within what was once Clwyd-Denbighshire, Flintshire, and Wrexham-they suffered heavy defeats in contrast to their strong performance there in the 2019 general election (4 of the 6 constituencies they gained in Wales in 2019 were in the former county of Clwyd). Both traditional middle-class Conservatives and those who believed that their area would benefit significantly from a "levelling up" agenda have turned on the Conservatives in Wales, just like in England. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Labour made some recovery in Scotland, gaining control of West Dunbartonshire (the STV system in Scottish local elections makes it very difficult for even the dominant SNP to take overall control of Scottish councils), making a net gain of 20 councils, but they are still lagging behind the SNP in the Central Belt where they once dominated and this will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future, as the SNP have effectively displaced Labour in Scotland except in strongly unionist areas such as East Lothian where Labour will continue to remain competitive. Meanwhile in Wales, they gained Blaenau Gwent and Bridgend and strengthened their control of Cardiff, which has a large middle-class public sector electorate as well (interestingly Labour lost seats in Swansea even though Swansea has a considerable public sector electorate). Labour did however endure a major setback in losing Neath Port Talbot, a sign that Sir Keir Starmer's desire to appeal to the centre ground is losing Labour many traditional supporters, and they did not benefit much from Conservative woes in Denbighshire, Flintshire, or Wrexham.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Liberal Democrats' progress in Scotland primarily occurred where they were the main challengers to the SNP or defending against the SNP, rather than in terms of the council area's demographics, hence why they made a net gain of only 20 seats. They had a larger struggle in Wales, making a net gain of only 10 seats, contributed by their gains in Powys alone due to the gradual decline of Independent dominance as well as the cost of living crisis strongly impacting on rural areas which are more dependent on car usage; at this time of writing petrol and diesel prices have exceeded £1.50 per litre almost everywhere in Britain. The Scottish Greens fared better in pushing the climate emergency to the fore of Scottish politics, nearly doubling their council seat total to 35; clearly their time in coalition with the SNP in Holyrood is favouring them at present. Having struggled with low candidate numbers and competition with Plaid Cymru for "soft green" votes, Wales Green Party finally got their breakthrough this year, winning 8 seats in total although a pact with Plaid Cymru in Cardiff failed badly, primarily because the Green Party still does not appeal much to the Welsh-speaking electorate and/or those concerned with Welsh independence.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The SNP benefitted well from the Conservatives' losses, making a net gain of 22 seats, even though Conservative voters generally do not preference the SNP at all and would rather see their votes transfer to Labour than the SNP, even though the appetite for Scottish independence is no better than in 2014; notable amongst their otherwise modest gains was gaining overall control of Dundee. The SNP splinter group Alba, by comparison, did not hold a single seat amongst the councillors who defected to Alba from the SNP and most polled a derisory vote, showing as with the 2021 Scottish Parliament election that Alba lacks a viable support base or enough differences from the SNP to make a case for itself. Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, regained Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Ynys Mon in addition to holding Gwynedd meaning that once again they now have control of all four councils comprising the Welsh-speaking counties, but Labour's recovery of more moderate voters saw Plaid Cymru lose more than half their seats in Rhondda Cynon Taf where they are generally the only competitors to Labour, showing a shift in direction under Adam Price back towards more traditional areas of Plaid Cymru support. Partly as a result they actually made net losses of 6 council seats, despite making considerable headway in Wrexham, close to the border with the English county of Cheshire. In both Scotland and Wales, Independents continued to decline except in the more remote, rural councils where a non-partisan tradition still holds sway, such as Orkney and Shetland in Scotland and Pembrokeshire and Powys in Wales; this is not only attributable to increased political party activity but a decline in younger people able to replace retiring councillors due to a lack of career and educational prospects in the more remote areas.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-30928049044499467132022-05-10T23:37:00.001+01:002022-05-10T23:37:37.226+01:00My analysis of the 2022 United Kingdom local elections, part 1: England: A new era?<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The 2022 United Kingdom local elections, particularly in Greater London but also elsewhere in England, in many ways further enforce a new political era in the United Kingdom. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Conservatives' losses were not as high as many media outlets predicted, but it is important to remember that they were defending significantly fewer wards than in 2019, especially with the creation of the new unitary authorities of Cumberland, North Yorkshire, Somerset, and Westmorland & Furness which replace the respective county councils and districts of those areas from next year. They lost a total of 336 seats overall notionally (there were extensive boundary changes in many London boroughs, as well as some metropolitan boroughs including St Helens), including 84 net losses in Greater London alone even accounting for the gains they made in Harrow, the only council they gained overall control of this year. Retaining control of Newcastle-under-Lyme was their only other crumb of comfort. In Greater London they lost more than half the seats they were defending in Camden, Ealing, Merton and Redbridge, areas where they were already in retreat, as well as their last council seat in Lambeth Other increasingly progressive areas that were once Conservative bastions repudiated them heavily, including Tunbridge Wells where they are no longer even the largest party, Wokingham which they held control of even in the 1990s, and Somerset (which replaces Somerset CC and the four Somerset districts from next year), where they held control of the county council since 2009. Their losses in North Hertfordshire where I was the Green Party candidate in Letchworth South West (one of many middle-class urban wards the Conservatives lost this year, in this case to the Liberal Democrats) illustrate the increasing urban/rural divide in Conservative fortunes both in the short and long term: of the 4 (out of 8 they were defending) wards the Conservatives held this year in that district, only 1 (Royston Palace) was in an urban ward; the other three were in rural wards comprising one or more villages. Similar patterns were seen in many other Home Counties districts such as Tandridge. Even wealthier (ex)Conservative voters are increasingly tired with the scandals that the Conservatives as a whole are increasingly embroiled in, and the cost-of-living crisis affects even the affluent middle classes to some extent, although it bites hardest in Greater London at present where the cost of living was already high pre-coronavirus pandemic. In particular, the creation of new authorities in Cumbria, North Yorkshire, and Somerset was not greeted well by voters; not only did the Conservatives suffer substantial seat losses in those areas (counting Cumberland and Westmorland & Furness as Cumbria) but also turnout was noticeably lower than expected.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Whilst Labour met many of its expectations for this year's elections, convincingly winning control of Barnet, Wandsworth, and for the very first time, Westminster, they found themselves knocked back where either demographic change was turning against them long-term (e.g. Amber Valley, Harlow, Newcastle-under-Lyme), or where local circumstances were strongly against Labour (notably Tower Hamlets, where they lost both the mayoralty and council to Lutfur Rahman and the Aspire Party, and Croydon, where the inaugural mayoral election was narrowly won by the Conservatives and where they lost overall control of the council as well, partly related to the council being declared bankrupt during the last term), despite often benefitting from the Conservatives' woes overall. Furthermore, in the final days of the campaign, allegations about Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer taking part in office visits to Durham whilst lockdown restrictions preventing nonessential travel were in place surfaced, which tarnished his reputation in poorer councils in particular; Sir Keir later stated that <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61383091">he would resign if given a lockdown fine similar to one recently handed down to Boris Johnson.</a> In the south of England, gentrification of traditionally Conservative areas due to middle-class Labour voters being priced out of London (and such areas as Brighton & Hove and Bristol for that matter) is increasing Labour prospects in areas where they had no significant prospects before, helping them gain control of Worthing council for the very first time. Back in 2013, when I started this blog, Labour did not have a single councillor in Worthing, which is increasingly being populated by young professionals unable to afford housing in Brighton & Hove. Shoreham (covered by the Adur district) is also experiencing this to a lesser extent.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Liberal Democrats continued to build on their 2019 and 2021 gains, almost wiping out the Conservatives in St Albans, Kingston-upon-Thames and Richmond-upon-Thames (Conservative seat totals in these boroughs: 4, 3, and 1 respectively), as well as the Wimbledon part of Merton (i.e. the area currently comprising the Wimbledon parliamentary constituency), and holding Sutton against all expectations even with the troubles the administration had been experiencing, as sometimes reported in Private Eye inter alia. Although Gosport, a relatively poor coastal town with an ageing population, sounds like a surprise gain for them, voters priced out of Fareham and other towns along the Solent yet not willing to live in Portsmouth (which has the highest population density in the UK, with all the issues this entails) are moving into Gosport even though it notably lacks a railway station (and is one of the largest towns in Europe without one). Another surprise for them was their gain of Hull, with their otherwise low total of 3 gains being enough to gain control, again due to the increasingly centrist stance of Keir Starmer alienating poorer Labour voters north of the Wash; however, they lost considerable ground against Labour in London, especially in the boroughs of Haringey and Southwark where they have been the only significant challengers to Labour for many years, although arguably in these areas many would-be Liberal Democrat voters are moving out of these boroughs to the Home Counties. Metropolitan professionals are still participating in the "work from home" exodus which impacts significantly on areas like these.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Green Party managed to make more net gains in England than Labour did, much to the surprise of everyone, even some environmental activists. Not only did they make a net gain of 63 seats, notionally more than doubling the seats they won in 2018, they also won representation for the first time in Calderdale, Cheltenham, Coventry, Croydon, Maidstone, Newham, Plymouth, Three Rivers, and Tower Hamlets, as well as regaining representation in Hackney, and even the Liberal Democrats could not always escape the Green surge (their first seats in Cheltenham and Three Rivers were gains from the Liberal Democrats) despite Green votes being tactically squeezed in many wards the Liberal Democrats gained this year (including the aforementioned example of Letchworth South West) whereas Green votes held firmer in Labour-Conservative marginals overall. One notable setback for the Greens amidst all these gains was in Lambeth, where despite their hard campaigning against gentrification of council estates they lost 3 seats, holding only 2 of the seats in Streatham St Leonard's ward within Lambeth. Labour's better than expected performance in Greater London also stymied hopes of gaining the other 2 seats of Highgate ward, Camden, and limited Green gains in Hackney to just 2 seats, both in split wards where they were less than 100 votes short of winning in 2018 (Dalston and Hackney Downs).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Even with so many Conservative losses and many Liberal Democrat and Green gains, in addition to a modest number of Labour gains overall, British local politics is firmly in a new era where the divide is no longer between north and south or necessarily even rich and poor (to some extent; ultra-rich areas in Greater London held out for the Conservatives as usual) but city, town, and country, public sector-dominated and private sector-dominated, and between highly academic and not so academic in terms of educational attainment. The Conservatives may yet continue to control Amber Valley and Harlow councils even if their poll ratings drop below the lows seen in the worst years of Sir John Major's tenure as PM, and conversely are unlikely to regain control of St Albans or Worthing councils anytime soon, and further gentrification of metropolitan areas is now generally more beneficial to the Liberal Democrats or Labour than the Conservatives.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If you are wondering why I have not talked about national vote shares in this analysis, this is because they are relevant to general elections and current opinion polling only; they cannot be properly extrapolated to fit or predict local election results as a whole due to increasing long-term political divergence between the various districts and boroughs, not to mention a gradual reduction in traditional "Lab-Con/Con-Lab" swing voters; national opinion polling can only predict the outcome of a handful of councils where there are still significant numbers of voters of this type e.g. Southampton (which was indeed gained by Labour as predicted).</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-49240339430085580562022-04-29T00:09:00.003+01:002022-04-29T00:09:48.076+01:00My analysis of the French presidential election of 2022<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">As predicted, the French presidential election of 2022 delivered a second term for Emmanuel Macron, albeit with a less decisive result than in 2017, even though he was once again facing Marine Le Pen in the second round.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This time, M. Macron won by a margin of 58.5% to 41.5%, compared to his victory of 66.1% to 33.9% against Mme Le Pen. Even though Mme Le Pen's anti-immigrant, racist and nationalist platform was just as despised as ever before, the margin of victory was lower because of a greater abstention rate. In the second round, the turnout was just 72%, the lowest in a French presidential election in 1969; by comparison the turnout in the second round in 2017 was 74.6%. Furthermore, many voters who supported radical socialist activist Jean-Luc Melenchon, Bernie Sanders' French counterpart in some ways, who came just 421,309 votes short of entering the second round, decided to abstain or spoil their ballot papers, seeing a choice between M. Macron and Mme Le Pen as a Hobson's choice at best.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">What was just as notable in this election was the collapse of the French "establishment parties". Neither the Les Republicans (the Republicans, France's equivalent of the Conservatives) nor the Parti Socialiste (Socialist Party, which in this case is France's equivalent of Labour) reached the 5% mark necessary to reclaim campaign expenses. Valerie Pecresse only managed 4.76% and Anne Hidalgo (currently Mayor of Paris) fared even worse with 1.75%. This is also reflective of how polarised French politics has become, since the top three presidential candidates comprised the "hard centre", "hard right", and "hard left" respectively and between them M. Macron, Mme Le Pen, and M. Melenchon polled 72.95% of the votes cast in the first round. Many voters increasingly want candidates firmer in their beliefs and principles and not moderate waverers; it is not possible to please everyone and newer parties with more extreme views find this easier to accept, even if it permanently narrows their support base. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Despite high expectations Yannick Jadot, the Europe Ecologie Les Verts (the French Green Party) candidate failed to pass the 5% threshold either, falling slightly behind Mme Pecresse. Even though the climate crisis is receiving significant attention in France, M. Macron was able to win over a large proportion of "light green" voters wavering between EELV and M. Macron's party, La Republique En Marche (Republic Forward, the French answer to the Free Democratic Party of Germany and similar to the Liberal Democrats in some ways), in a similar fashion to how the Liberal Democrats have won over some similar voters in the UK in some recent parliamentary by-elections (e.g. in the case of Chesham & Amersham). Furthermore those voters, unlike M. Melenchon's supporters, were more willing to vote tactically in the second round even though neither option was inclined towards what they saw as a green agenda.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">"Judean People's Front/People's Front of Judea" splits continued to haunt the "hard left" in France, and this time it proved to be serious. The votes of the French Communist Party alone, who did not stand in the 2017 French presidential election, would have been enough to allow M. Melenchon and France Insoumisse (Insubmissive France) to enter the second round, and given the dissatisfaction amongst poorer voters with M. Macron and his reforms, not to mention the impact of particularly strict lockdowns during 2020, M. Melenchon would likely have won, if narrowly. The same cannot be said for Philippe Poutou or Nathalie Arthaud of the New Anticapitalist Party and Workers' Struggle respectively, for their voters would have had held views too extreme even to support France Insoumisse, although limited tactical voting for M. Melenchon did ensue amongst some of their voter base.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It is important to note at this point that, as with the position of President of the United States of America, no President of France can serve more than two terms in office. Whether LREM can sustain itself after Emmanuel Macron completes his second term as French President remains debatable, and he will face more resistance to his reforms than he did during his first term. The increasing alienation of French voters from French politics, as seen here in this election and which will become even more marked in National Assembly elections in June, is another serious long-term problem.</span></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8560410265337173060.post-63987316141698803222022-04-26T00:17:00.002+01:002022-04-26T00:21:17.459+01:00My analysis of the Slovenian parliamentary election of 2022<p> <span style="font-family: arial;">Yesterday, Slovenia's parliamentary election resulted in one of the most significant shake-ups in Slovenian political history, with the new Freedom Movement (Gibanje Svoboda) making one of the most substantial breakthroughs in post-communist Central/Eastern/Southeastern European history for a new party.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Freedom Movement managed to win 41 seats, easily topping the poll in Slovenia despite only having been founded last year. Given strict thresholds, especially for alliances of parties (although Slovenia has no separate threshold for alliances), that persist throughout Central/Eastern/Southeastern Europe, and that media freedom is generally not as strong as in Western/Northern Europe in practice (in fact the main Slovenian television network, RTV Slovenia, initially refused to acknowledge the Freedom Movement as a political party worthy of coverage), and finally the time it takes for new parties to build up political support even with strong personalities leading said party, this breakthrough is truly remarkable, especially one coming close to a single-party majority in a list-PR only electoral system. Overcoming the long-standing influence of Janez Jansa, who has served as Prime Minister of Slovenia three times (including since March 2020), was also a very significant challenge for any new party, and even more established ones in Slovenia.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Mr Jansa's Slovenian Democratic Party, Slovenia's de facto answer to the Conservative Party, surprisingly managed to win an extra 2 seats, bringing them to 27, but it is clear that his tenure as Slovenian PM is over, even with Mr Jansa having been recently cleared of corruption allegations. Mr Jansa was a known supporter of former US President Donald Trump and current Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, although he did not generally espouse their more extreme "national right-wing populist" views. Their gains arguably came from the collapse of the Marjan Senec list and the Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) in particular; both those parties lost all their seats in the Slovene National Assembly by falling below the 4% threshold even though both had left Mr Jansa's governing coalition by the time the election was called. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic having been dominant news (as elsewhere in the world) in Slovenia during much of the last two years, voters clearly did not forget. The Freedom Movement also eclipsed them in many respects, being committed to green liberalism and pro-Europeanism like many opposition parties. The junior partners of Mr Jansa's coalition, New Slovenia-Christian Democrats, managed to gain 1 seat, again mainly from lapsed former supporters of the Marjan Senec list and DeSUS.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Both the main parties of the "left" in Slovenia, the Social Democrats and Levica, both polled poorly; the Social Democrats lost 3 seats leaving them with 7, and Levica was reduced to 5 seats, only narrowly passing the 4% threshold for representation. In the latter case infighting within Levica, which caused the defection of 2 of their MPs to the Social Democrats, harmed their case for a socialist opposition in Slovenia, As for the Social Democrats, they were briefly in the governing coalition but left when Mr Jansa returned as PM; as was the case with the downfall of the Marjan Senec list, voters were not prepared to forgive or forget that easily. A rejection of nationalist populism that led to the defeat of SDS also led to the elimination of the national conservative (and de facto racist and anti-immigrant) Slovenian National Party from the National Assembly, which polled a miserable 1.5%. The Let's Connect Slovenia alliance also failed to win any seats, partly because its platform was too similar in many ways to the much more popular and well-resourced Freedom Movement party. Like so many other anti-vaccine parties, Resni.ca failed to gain any representation, although its vote share of 2.87% is considerably better than similar parties manage elsewhere in Europe (by comparison, the Party of Normal Life failed to even poll 1% in the Hungarian parliamentary election earlier this month). The wooden spoon of this election goes to the United Slovenia Movement, which polled just 164 votes, one of only two parties to poll less than 1000 votes in this election.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Robert Golob, leader of the Freedom Movement, is now set to become the next Prime Minister of Slovenia although whether he can form a stable coalition is another story, since running a minority government is essentially out of the question. A Freedom Movement-Social Democrats coalition is the most likely outcome given that no other parties with a liberal outlook remain in the Slovene National Assembly.</span></p><p><br /></p>Alan Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14309539364199710303noreply@blogger.com0